Lord Ashcroft: “If a good independent came, I’d give him a chance. I’ve given Labour chances”: My focus groups of Muslim voters

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

 Last month in Birmingham we conducted focus groups among people who will play a decisive part in the next election in constituencies around the country, as they did in the Gorton and Denton by-election: Muslim voters who backed Labour in 2024. They talked about political division, Labour’s record, alternative parties and candidates, and the role of Gaza in their voting decision.

“We’re just the common enemy at the moment”

Many said they found the general political atmosphere difficult and even hostile, and that things had got worse in recent years: “Even though we’ve been here 50 or 60 years, we’re kind of second class. I think there was always discrimination when we were growing up, with skinheads and things, but it was open discrimination. Then it became more subtle, but now it’s open again;” “Whenever something happens in the news they always pick on ‘a Muslim’. They never say if it’s a Sikh or something. They never say a Jewish Epstein. They never say Catholic, or Christian Jimmy Savile. It’s always a Muslim. Why can’t we leave that out? Why can’t we just name them?” “There’s racism and there’s Islamophobia. They’re two different things. There’s an inherent dislike of Muslims and that stems from 911 and ISIS and Osama bin Laden and the tube bombings and everything else. We’re just the common enemy at the moment, and every generation needs a common enemy.” (This was not a universal view; it should be noted: “I don’t think it’s as bad as that. My kids have never experienced racism. My dad did, but my kids haven’t”).

“Someone’s trying to cause serious problems, for different cultures to collide”

There was also a widespread view that politicians and others were deliberately stoking divisions: “I think someone’s trying to cause serious problems, for different cultures to collide. It’s like throwing a bomb, so people are going to argue and start something between different cultures and religions;” “I do think governments are to blame, and politicians. The Nigel Farages of the world and all the rest, Donald Trump, who say ‘it’s OK to be racist, look, I’m racist with you’. And then the flags come out and it’s ‘yeah, I’m just saying what everyone else is thinking’. It’s creating a divide;” “I live in an area that has more flags than when we had the Jubilee. This isn’t from the public. There’s something bigger going on behind. I drive up a street and they’re absolutely in line, as if professionals have come and put them up.”

“They could have been more vocal about what’s going on”

Some thought similar attitudes were on display when it came to the Gaza conflict. In particular, participants cited the public reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: “At my college, when the Ukraine thing happened, there was an email sympathising with the Ukrainian people. But when it came to Gaza there was no acknowledgment, nothing;” “We were told, if you have space in your home, open your homes to these people. That’s a big statement to make.”

Many were also disappointed with the government’s response to the conflict, which they regarded as being either much too timid or heavily pro-Israel: “Anyone that stood up and tried to tell the truth was basically tarnished. Keir Starmer pretty much said ‘this is the line and you’re going to follow this’. So the freedom of speech kind of went, even for the councillors and MPs;”

“I think they still sell arms to Israel;” “Keir Starmer specifically said Israel has a right to defend itself, to withhold food and aid from Gaza. There was a warrant issued for Netanyahu and Starmer was asked if he would arrest him if he landed on British soil, and he responded no. And you’ve got Palestine Action who are now regarded as a terrorist organisation, when then you had an EDL march where police vehicles were vandalised, but they’re not treated as a terrorist organisation. Why?”

The groups also drew a contrast between the official British position and that of other countries: “So many countries have taken this to the UN, voted against this whole thing. Where was our country?” “They could have been more vocal about what’s going on over there. Small countries like Ireland and Portugal and Greece spoke up and said it was genocide. We’re not saying anything.”

“It doesn’t feel like things are getting any better. They’re getting worse in some respects”

However, policy towards Israel and Gaza was by no means their only criticism of the Labour government, or even necessarily their biggest: “I know they’re picking up what the Conservatives left behind and that’s going to take a long time. But have we got time? I think Keir Starmer is a very weak man as well. He comes across as being very weak;” “I can’t think of anything positive that the Labour party or the government have done that has had an impact on me. We’ve spent years in austerity, and it doesn’t feel like things are getting any better. They’re getting worse in some respects;” “Digital ID. They want to keep track of us. I’ve got no confidence that they will secure that information, who accesses it, what they access it for;”

“What was their biggest election campaign on? ‘We will not raise taxes’. And they’ve done it twice;” “They sacked the chief constable of the West Midlands over a football match.”

“It’s a political career, that’s the bottom line”

None of our participants had a positive view of Birmingham MP and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Many felt she had let her local community down, allowed herself to be used by the political establishment, or shelved her principles in pursuit of her career: “She forgets where she’s come from and where her parents have come from;” “She’s part of the ‘yes’ team. To get to a certain position, you have to say enough yeses. And if you say no, you get dropped and you become one of the Zarahs. Shabana is the perfect ‘you tell me when to nod and I’ll nod, and when you tell me not to I’ll sit down’;” “I don’t think she’s done enough for the people to validate her being in that position of power;” “A brown face to deliver a brown message;” “If you look at Shabana Mahmood back in like 2012 or 13 or 14, she stuck up for Palestine and she’s saying so much. But if you listen to her now, she’s against people protesting. She’s got to put everything in place so it doesn’t get out of control, blah blah blah. It’s all a game to them. It’s a political career, that’s the bottom line.”

“There wasn’t much choice and I settled for Labour”

All our participants had voted Labour in 2024, but few had done so with much enthusiasm. Most had backed the party consistently over many years, though a few had voted Conservative in recent elections but thought it was time for change: “I thought, there’s loads of shite ones, and this was the best of the shite ones. So that’s what it came down to;” “There wasn’t much choice and I settled for Labour.”

Several felt there had been little to choose between Labour and the Conservatives in policy terms – a view which they said had been confirmed over the last 18 months: “He comes across very much as a Tory as well. I don’t think there’s much difference between the parties now, which is what I regret;” “Corbyn signalled a more left-leaning party, and it offered genuine choice in the UK. There’s no significant differentiating factor between the main ruling parties right now. They’re all centrist or following the same agenda or the same policies. It seems like none of them are organised or have a vision for Britain.”

For all of these reasons, many were prepared to consider alternative parties and candidates at the next election. A handful said they would probably return to the Conservatives. Though some were fond of Jeremy Corbyn, none were tempted by Your Party (“A lot of infighting. A bit of a mess”). The Green Party had not yet (pre Gorton result) made much impression on most of our participants, though some had had their interest piqued: “I keep coming across him and stuff that he says, and a lot of it resonates with me. If I keep doing my research and he keeps saying that stuff, I’ll probably end up voting for him;” “I think they do support Gaza a little, but I can’t say for sure.”

“The Gaza thing to me is huge, but it’s not all about Gaza”

Most emphasised that while a candidate’s position on Gaza might play some part in their decision, this would not in itself determine their vote: “I think sometimes that’s over-pushed. Don’t get me wrong, the Gaza thing to me is huge, but it’s not all about Gaza. We care about other things beyond that;” “For me, the priority is what happens in the UK. It’s what governs my day-to-day life.”

They often felt that for those who had backed the so-called ‘Gaza Independent’ MPs in 2024, events in the Middle East had only been one part of their decision: complacent sitting MPs, weariness with the Labour Party and local issues had also played an important part: “My in-laws live on the same road as Ayoub Khan [Independent Perry Barr MP] and he’s done very, very well. He’s like the success story of the road. But that man is so approachable. He does so much for the community. If you knock on his door, come in, no problem. So the idea that he just got voted in because of Gaza – if you live in that area, there’s a lot more to him than just that;” “He kicked out Khalid Mahmood, didn’t he? He’d been around 20 years and basically done nothing. He just sat on the fence. I felt like he was just in because he was Labour.”

Some younger participants also noted that name recognition and social media profile could be a more important factor that party: “One of the independents, Ahmed Yaqoob [a candidate for West Midlands Mayor in 2024] was big on social media. So every day I’m scrolling on TikTok, and I don’t really know his policies, but it’s seeing him every day as someone you know. If I’m completely honest, all these other candidates I don’t really know. So it’s having a name that’s familiar to you.”

“They haven’t listened to their local constituents, they’ve just gone to where the party stands”

In the same way, they expected disappointment with the Labour government to prompt more local voters to look at independent alternatives next time: “I think we’ve had a lot of shake up in the last so many years that people are now being more disgruntled and unhappy, and I think that’s what’s caused it;” “As well as leading the government, an MP’s role is to listen to their constituents. So a lot of people like Shabana Mahmood, who is Ladywood, they haven’t listened to their local constituents, they’ve just gone to where the party stands;” “Jess Phillips and Shabana Mahmood – I think both of those are on borrowed time. If they stood today, they would not win the election.”

Though none wanted to see a Reform government, most were not prepared to say that they would vote Labour to stop Nigel Farage. Some were still prepared to give the government the benefit of the doubt after a relatively short time in office, some worried that there would not be enough independent MPs to make much difference, and some simply thought “better the devil you know”. A few also said their vote would depend on how close things seemed to be during the campaign.

“If you get another Labour one, it will be exactly the same as it is now”

However, there was also a feeling that there was no reason to stay loyal to a party that was not doing anything for them, whether locally or nationally: “Something has to change. Not for Muslims, not for people of colour, for people of a lower class. We’re so restricted. It’s like we’ve gone into this dark old age;” “The cost of living and everything is becoming tougher. Maybe in five years it’s going to be even worse;” “My local MP Tahir Mahmood for Hall Green, he’s done sod all for Hall Green. I’ve never seen him. So based on that,’ I’ll never vote for him. Not because he’s Labour, because he’s useless. If a good independent came, I’d give him a chance. I’ve given Labour chances;” “Whether it’s the Tories or Labour nationally, the policies are going to be the same. If you choose a person that’s independent locally, at least you’ll get some local difference. If you get another Labour one, it will be exactly the same as it is now.”