Lord Ashcroft: My latest focus groups “It wasn’t the original plan, was it, to be a load of failed Tories”

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

 My latest focus groups took place among 2024 Tory-Labour switchers in Tamworth, Reform voters in Clacton, and Conservatives in Romford. The groups talked about local elections, social media, the fallout from the Mandelson saga, Reform’s new shadow cabinet, prospects for the Tories and what constitutes Peak Starmer.

“To stop us voting was the only way”

Our Essex participants were digesting the day’s news that their local elections were back on following the government’s latest reversal. They were sceptical, to say the least, about the reasons given for cancelling the elections in the first place: “They were supposedly moving borders around. Personally, I think it was because Labour knew they were going to lose a lot of areas, so to stop us voting was the only way;” with all the changes that happen in politics over the years, “I’ve never known elections to be cancelled like that.” Nor did they give ministers any praise for seeing the light: “They thought they were going to lose the case brought by Reform. That’s why they changed their mind;” “If Reform hadn’t pushed it, who would have done?” “I think they were running scared, more than that they deserve credit for doing it.”

“I don’t know how they can enforce it, but I agree with it”

Nearly everyone in our groups from all political backgrounds welcomed the prospect of a social media ban for under-16s. Several had doubts about enforcement, though this did not tend to put them off the policy: “I think it’s a good idea, but at the same time, there’s also things in place for kids under 18 not to drink alcohol, but they still do it. The kids will find a way round it;” “I don’t know how they can enforce it, but I agree with it. I’ve got two daughters and I’m scared out of my mind;” “If you can’t legally enforce it, you’ve got to culturally enforce it.  You’ve got to have schools teach it, parents teach it. That’s the only way you’ll ever do it;” “If Australia can do it, we should follow suit.” A few thought an age limit missed the point, if the problem was the content that young people were able to access: “If there’s an issue with what they’re accessing, surely those people who are monitoring those systems should have something in place rather than ticking a button to say, ‘I’m over 18’.”

Most did not worry about censorship, given that there were already restrictions on what children could see and do. However, a few did suspect an authoritarian agenda: “We’re back to our personal IDs again. It’s another way of getting the IDs in. It’s just another way to put a blindfold over us.”

 “It’s not as important to me as the way that they’re running the country”

The groups also reflected on the Mandelson-Epstein scandal and its implications (“there was Miss Whiplash and Edwina Currie and all the rest of it in the past. But this one really takes the biscuit, doesn’t it?”) While most were not very surprised (“I just feel like anyone in power is usually doing something really bad behind closed doors”), some Labour voters were disappointed: “When I came in, he was like ‘we’re going to get rid of all the sleaze. We’re going to be down the line’, and we’ve hit this already;” “You expect it from the Tories.”

However, there was also a widespread feeling that, while these events were serious and accountability was important, the story was getting disproportionate airtime: “I think it’s been made out to be a point of principle by the media. But like a lot of things, you can just substitute him for other politicians and other situations. The same things happen time and time again.” This was particularly true when set against things that affected them personally: “It’s not so much the stories or the scandals for me. It’s the fact that they got a huge majority based on change because everyone was fed up. And what have you got?” “It’s not as important to me as the way that they’re running the country.”

“He should go because he’s inept, not for this”

Accordingly, while many of them would be happy to see Keir Starmer resign, several thought that appointing Peter Mandelson as an ambassador would constitute a fairly minor reason: “For me, it’s not the decision that would make me think ‘oh God, you should go’. There’s lots of other things he’s done that make me think that, but that’s not one of them;” “Any excuse to get him out, to be honest. He needs to go;” “He should go because he’s inept. Not for this, but for the way he’s running the country.”

Even so, there was little appetite for any of the leading contenders for the job currently inside parliament. Angela Rayner? “Hypocrite;” “She got sacked for tax;” “If I fiddle my tax for 80 grand, I’m doing three months minimum;” “If she comes up with that line ‘I’m from a working-class background’ one more time…” Few had views on Wes Streeting: “Quite personable;” “Another one who should be sacked, but Starmer hasn’t got the cojones to do it.” Ed Miliband? “Oh God, no;” “He seemed a bit soft when he was around before;” “Quite weak really, but there’s something I like about him. I don’t know what it is.”

“He got caught out and sacked his communications team”

Participants debated what represented ‘Peak Starmer’ – the event or decision that was most characteristic of the prime minister: “The pensioners and the fuel. It’s ridiculous that he had to turn around on it but he shouldn’t have done it in the first place;” “Digital ID – the idea that he does something so monumentally obviously bad and unpopular, for silly reasons that this was going to stop illegal immigrants working, and then U-turns on it, is emblematic of where he stands at the moment;” “The appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. People told him not to do it, and he did it anyway, and then he got caught out and sacked his communications team;” “That thing with the French and the migrants, and they’ve sent more to us than we’ve sent to them.”

 “She’s got a bit of bite about her”

Some of our former Conservative participants had been impressed with what they had recently seen of Kemi Badenoch: “Kemi comes across really well. She’s more straight-talking. I trust her to do what she says more than I would Keir Starmer. Not that I’m going to vote for her necessarily, but I think she far exceeds Starmer;” “She’s got a bit of bite about her;” “She’s holding him to account very well. She’s not scared to call him out;” “She was working at 16 in McDonald’s. And her work ethic… I’d rather hear about that than Keir Starmer going on about his working-class background. His parents owned the factory.”

However, this did not often extend to the Conservative party more widely: “I think she speaks well but I wouldn’t trust her as far as I could throw her. With the amount of people who are leaving the party, there’s obviously something that isn’t ringing home to them;” “She was in the Tory government, so if she came out and said, I’m sorry we got stuff wrong, I tried to change it… But unfortunately, I haven’t heard her apologise for the crap the country is in;” “Reform are organised. The Tories are still all over the shop. Kemi Badenoch aside, they are a mess, an absolute bloody mess.”

“We want to hear things that are going to make our lives easier… It’s a slog living in England.”

Former Tories who had switched to Reform or were considering doing so often said they had heard little from the Conservatives since the election (though they were also paying less attention to parties they felt had let them down): “It was that if you work hard, you might have a chance to have financial freedom and succeed in life. But I don’t think they’ve really got that aura about them anymore;” “There’s nothing that’s come from them that makes me want to go back to them. They seem completely aimless and they’re not communicating. I haven’t heard any policies;” “I think we want to hear things that are going to make our lives easier… It’s a slog living in England.”

For many, the defections to Reform were the most recent news they could remember about the Conservatives. A few took a positive view (“they’ve probably done them a favour. Get the rot out”) but more tended to think they were damaging, even if the defectors themselves had been motivated by ambition rather than principle: “Saying ‘I don’t want to be on that team anymore,’ what are you saying? It’s a big statement, isn’t it?” “I think Rosindell has only changed to Reform because he’s seen the writing on the wall as far as the polling is concerned in Havering. He’s jumping ship because he knows he’s not going to win if he’s a Conservative.”

“It wasn’t the original plan, was it, to be a load of failed Tories?”

Reform voters had mixed feelings about their former Tory recruits, and Farage’s new senior shadow team. Some were pragmatic: “The one criticism you can levy against Reform more than anything is that they don’t actually know how to run the country because there’s no-one with real political experience in there. So I think he needed to do it.” However, there was also a feeling among Reform voters that the Conservative influx risked watering down the party’s purpose and appeal: “It wasn’t the original plan, was it, to be a load of failed Tories? It seems to dilute it a bit;” “He’s got two ex-cabinet members from the Conservative Party in his shadow cabinet, when they claim the Conservatives broke the country and now, they want to fix it. Well hang on, you were part of that problem. You were in government and you didn’t help fix what you were paid to fix;” “Suella Braverman is up there screaming about immigration. She was Home Secretary twice!” “I also think it matters what Nigel Farage and other people in the party have said about these people. They’ve said they’re bad, they’re useless, and then he’s like ‘yeah, boys, let’s get them in’. That is hypocritical, obviously. And it speaks to the fact that it’s grift and trying to accumulate power rather than actually trying to run the country successfully.”

Farage’s Clacton constituents said their MP seemed less present and available than he once was: “Obviously I voted for Farage. Since then I’ve emailed him 15 times, and all I get is the parliamentary acknowledgement. Not once has he responded to any of my emails;” “I’ve looked and looked and I can’t find a meeting time or place or anything;” “He used to be here quite a lot. He hasn’t popped his head up recently. He should have what they call a surgery, shouldn’t he? He should be more accessible;” “When the big shop burnt down in Clacton, he was all over that like a rash. He helped the people get another shop and set it up. Now he’s gone quiet again. He’s got to wait for another something. It seems like he has to have a something;” “He’s up in London most of the time. We don’t hear much about him. It’s difficult because he’s leader of his party, so he probably has to be there. But he doesn’t have to be in America all the time.”

 “He’s got as much gravitas as Noel Edmonds. Or Mr Blobby”

 Finally, with the Oscars coming up, who would play the title role in Keir Starmer: The Movie? “Hugh Bonneville. He can play that sort of upper-class, middle-aged male;” “A Gremlin. He was a nice little teddy bear, then as soon as the water spilled… He’s a completely different person since the election;” “He’s got as much gravitas as Noel Edmonds. Or Mr Blobby;” “Jim Carrey in The Mask. Or Dumb and Dumber;” “Mr Bean;” “Forrest Gump;” “Humpty Dumpty falling off his wall.”

Who would play Nigel Farage? “Mel Gibson, because everyone despises him in the elite;” “Del Boy in Only Fools and Horses. Keir Starmer would be Rodney;” “Someone bolshie. The guy who plays Cain Dingle in Emmerdale;” “Gonzo from The Muppets;” “Kermit the Frog;” “Blakey, the guy from On the Buses with the little moustache. Stephen Lewis;” “Alan Partridge.”

What about Kemi Badenoch? “Angela Bassett;” “Meryl Streep. She played Maggie. She has that delivery about her. When she stands at the dispatch box she has that little bit of authority about her;” “Julia Roberts. She always seems quite committed in what she thinks and says.”

Zack Polanski? “Woody Harrelson;” “Matthew McConaughey;” “Mark Strong, the bloke who plays a lot of baddies;” “Alan Carr.”

And Ed Davey? “Casper the friendly ghost, because you never see him;” “Is he the funny one who does all the kids’ things so you can’t take him seriously?” “Harry Enfield;” Ricky Gervais;” “John Cleese in Fawlty Towers. Or Manuel.”