Lord Ashcroft: My latest focus groups -“This is the only time I’ve agreed with Keir Starmer in a while”

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

 My latest focus groups took place in the North-East, where we heard from regular Labour voters in Newcastle East and Wallsend who might be tempted elsewhere, and from people in Bishop Auckland who switched from the Conservatives to Labour at the last election.

Most participants felt that recent political news had been dominated by the Iran conflict, the causes of which remained opaque to many.

Explanations included a Trumpian need to project power, a desire to control oil supplies, a response to the murder of protesters by the Iranian regime, and an attempt to stop Iran building nuclear weapons – the last of which some accepted as the right and reasonable explanation, though a few said they were reminded of claims about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.

“This is the only time I’ve agreed with him in a while”

Whatever the reasons for the military action, most were glad that Britain was not taking a leading role in it. They tended to back Keir Starmer’s cautious approach and his willingness to defy President Trump, often saying it was the first time for ages that they could remember approving of anything he had done: “I don’t like Keir Starmer, even though I voted for him. But I don’t mind that he didn’t dive straight in on this one. This is the only time I think I’ve agreed with him in a while. He had a bit of balls about him just to hang back and upset them;” “It feels like we’re being cautious as a country, Keir Starmer is being cautious. I think he’s learning from past mistakes with Iraq. I think he’s doing as much as he needs to without getting us heavily involved and bearing arms as a country ourselves, and seeing how it unfolds over the coming weeks.”

Even so, some worried about Starmer’s apparent prevarications and the potential repercussions on our relationship with the US: “They wanted to use the airfields in Chagos, wasn’t it, and it took two days to respond. So I appreciate the fact that he hasn’t got into the war, but they’re still a key ally of the UK and if anything happens going forward, it could be concerning;” “Sometimes he comes across as scared to make a decision and say ‘right, this is what’s happening’;” “I think we should be more involved because America is our ally. And without America… well, we haven’t got the war machines we need to actually go to war. We should have stood by America. If Russia ever attack us, who’s going to help us?”

At the same time, some worried that Britain’s position had been dictated by our diminished military capability as anything else: “I don’t think our military are capable. We haven’t put the money into the military as much as we should have;” “It’s embarrassing. We’ve got one boat and it’s taken a week and a half to decide whether to send it;” “They attacked Cyprus, the British base, and the Americans had to go and protect us. We didn’t protect our own.”

None of our participants had registered any opposition politicians’ stance on the conflict – usually assuming they had sensibly kept their heads down: “I think it’s very muted, what the other parties’ views are. I don’t think anybody’s been very noisy about it, probably because they don’t want to take that responsibility;” “I imagine Farage would probably be more likely to help, just because him and Trump are quite friendly, from what you hear on the news. But I haven’t actually heard anything.”

“It will come out of our pockets no matter what, won’t it?”

The groups had noticed petrol prices creeping up as a result of the conflict. Some thought the government should step in and help consumers if domestic gas and electricity bills rose significantly, but some were doubtful: “It will come out of our pockets no matter what, won’t it? They’ll help, but they’ll claw it back in another way.”

Several also argued that the conflict highlighted showed the need to prioritise energy costs and security of supply over net zero targets: “If the energy price is going to keep going up, big companies aren’t going to invest in growth in the UK because they’ve got to keep the lights on, keep the heating on. Haven’t we already got the highest prices for energy in Europe?” “We should be looking at what we’ve got in this country, what we can use. If stuff is happening in Iran, do we have oil and gas coming in – rather than talking about green renewables, where apparently everything’s made in China anyway, so the net zero green project is contradicting itself.” A few argued that the conflict showed the need to be less dependent on oil and gas in the first place.

“Everybody knows somebody that’s fiddling the system”

There was a guarded welcome for the government’s latest plans on welfare reform, including a new apprenticeship scheme, incentives for firms to take on younger people and requirements for some disability benefit claimants to look for work. However, there were doubts that the scheme would come to fruition (“they tried it before and it got rejected by their own backbenchers”). They also doubted that this government in particular was willing or able to tackle what they regarded as a huge and deep-rooted problem: “I think any working-class person would know five or ten people who are fiddling the system. They know what to do, what to say, what ailment to go for to obtain these things;” “Where I work there are kids who get PIP, and some of them literally brag about how much money they get;” “We work full time and more. I have to do two jobs and my little boy’s dad works two jobs, just to live nowadays. Parents who don’t work get £15 per child a week for food, but working parents have to have two jobs;” “I don’t know you change it, it’s so deep. It’s like an epidemic.”

“I don’t know how accurate this was, but I read on social media something about asylum seekers being given £40,000 to go. We’d pay them to leave!”

Participants in several groups spontaneously mentioned government plans to offer failed asylum seekers £40,000 as an incentive to leave the UK. Most thought it must have been fake news, or that they had misread the story – they couldn’t believe it was actually true: “I don’t know how accurate this was, but I read on social media something about asylum seekers being given £40,000 to go. We’d pay them to leave. Is that right?” “If that was accurate and true I’d be absolutely outraged. They took money off pensioners and are giving it to people who literally broke into the country;” “It will be ‘let’s pop over there for six months, get the money and get the boat back.”

As with the proposed welfare changes, there was qualified support for Shabana Mahmood’s move to make refugee status temporary, to be reviewed every 30 months, with individuals expected to return to their country of origin when it is deemed safe: “It’s a start. I don’t believe it will happen, but it’s not the worst idea I’ve ever heard.” A few disagreed, saying children and families should not be removed if they are settled and contributing.

“Why are we protecting one religion only?”

Some were also concerned about the government’s recently announced plans on community cohesion and tacking anti-Muslim hostility. Most felt that community relations in and around Newcastle were very good – better than in other parts of England, they believed – but there were questions as to why efforts should be focused on one part of society: “It’s not just Muslims that get hate. Why is it just their culture? Why not Jews, why not Christians? Why not Hindus and Sikhs? Why are we protecting one religion only? Shouldn’t everybody be protected?”

Though generally critical of Starmer and the government, the groups (especially longstanding Labour voters) praised policies including energy price caps, scrapping the two-child benefit limit, breakfast clubs, expanded childcare, and the higher minimum wage. Several of these were prepared to give Labour the benefit of the doubt for now: “I think they’ve sort of stopped the rot with inflation. It’s not necessarily getting much better, but it hasn’t got worse;” “There’s been Brexit and covid and two wars. You can’t magic money out of thin air. They’ve been dealt a bad hand, I think;” “I’d like to see what they can do over the next year. It’s a bit like a football club. If you chop and change your manager all the time, you get nowhere.”

“They keep saying ‘the previous government’. Get over it. You’ve been in nearly two years.”

Those who voted Labour having backed the Tories in 2019 tended to find fewer redeeming features. Higher taxes, U-turns and a habit of blaming the previous government after nearly two years in office were recurring themes: “They’ve given me a couple of pay rises that I suppose weren’t coming before that. But they gave them with one hand and took it with the other hand;” “You don’t have any faith in what they’re going to do next, because you don’t know how well thought-out it’s been;” “They promised not to raise taxes, and effectively they have;” “Rachel Reeves. I can’t stand that false smile. She’s like an assassin;” “They keep saying ‘the previous government’. Get over it. You’ve been in nearly two years. You’ve had time to change. You quickly took the money off the pensioners, that didn’t take two years. They don’t take accountability or responsibility for anything;” “If they get in again it could end up being that 12-year span of badness that the Tories ended up having. I feel like it’s best to get them out now before they can do any more damage.”

“I do think she talks a lot more sense. But when they were in, they didn’t change it.”

These groups were still some way from returning to the Conservatives, even though there were some positive words for Kemi Badenoch: “They could promise ten things which I would like, but I wouldn’t vote for them after what happened the last 14 years;” “She’s trying hard but she’s treading water from what I can see. The party doesn’t seem to be behind her. She always seems to be out on her own;” “I do think she talks a lot more sense. But when they were in, they didn’t change it.”

Instead, a number were considering Reform UK.

As well as tougher action on migration, the main appeal was the prospect (or at least the chance) of change: “It’s time to give somebody else a go because the other two have done a horrendous job my whole life;” “I’m not sure they’ll be the answer to everything. But they’re the best of a bad bunch, I think.” There were reservations, however, including rumours of planned NHS privatisation, Nigel Farage himself (“he seems more fame hungry than anything else”), his relationship with Donald Trump, unrealistically easy solutions (“his manifesto was a bit like a fantasy, I think;” “I don’t know how they think they can come in and fix immigration overnight when the other parties have lost government because of it”), and large numbers of Tory defectors (“that’s a red flag for me”).

“I just feel like it’s a good idea to go for someone whose purpose is to just try and make everything better.”

There was also some interest in the Green Party and what they had heard of their policies. More important, however, were the general air of “hope” that some detected, as well as Zack Polanski: “I like how hopeful all of their ideals sound, with the state of the world as it is. I just feel like it’s a good idea to go for someone whose purpose is to just try and make everything better;” “They seem quite hopeful, but they need to build up their political presence because they’re sort of like a backseat party. But if they do, then it could be on the cards for me;” “When he talks about Israel and Iran or Palestine, anything like that, he can’t be labelled as an anti-Semite because he’s Jewish. He’s very well spoken. Whatever is thrown at him, he can either brush it aside without any effort or face it head on with a cool and collected, informed argument.”

Some had their doubts as to how realistic their solutions were – and about Polanski himself: “Anything green – it’s great, but it just costs far too much money;” “More for a younger person, students and stuff;” “As nice as everything he puts out sounds, it’s a little bit fantastical. But I feel like the only reason why it doesn’t sound realistic is because they haven’t had a chance to be in power and start putting things into place;” “Was it him that told women that if you get hypnotised, your boobs will get bigger? Does he know it’s a lie? I can’t have him on my telly. He’s crazy. And he tells you that men are really women.”

“I don’t think he’d invite anybody because he doesn’t want to upset people who don’t have that religion”

Finally, with Easter on the way, if Labour were to get together for Sunday lunch, what would it be like? “It would just be for the people off the boats because they get everything. He’s not going to invite anyone like us;” “The conversation would be very dull and self-promoting. ‘Look at us, what an amazing dinner we put on’;” “Five peas, two bits of broccoli, one Yorkshire pudding;” “I don’t think he’d invite anybody because he doesn’t want to upset people who don’t have that religion. He’d keep the door shut and wouldn’t dare invite people round.”

What about the Reform Sunday lunch? “It would be more of a fun gathering. Their own branded Easter eggs. Farage dressed as an Easter bunny;” “It would be in a pub with a big loudspeaker outside in the car park. A double-decker bus with his face on it;” “Beer on tap in the corner;” “Expensive cognacs, lots of bragging. Someone else is cooking, obviously. Female maids running around.”

The Conservatives? “It would be raucous, but behind closed doors;” “They’d go fox hunting;” “Four people in the corner and a dog;” “They’ll be sitting round the table with £100 bottles of wine saying ‘Keir Starmer’s done this and he hasn’t done that’. But they wouldn’t put a pound on because they’ve got chefs cooking for them and it’s lobster and caviar.”

And the Green Sunday lunch? “It would be a different kind of Sunday joint. They’d be passing it round. Big bags of Monster Munch.”