Connect with us

Politics

Lord Ashcroft: Who is most trusted on the economy, preferred coalitions, the pensions triple lock, should Starmer resign, and are Reform like the Tories?

Published

on

Lord Ashcroft: Who is most trusted on the economy, preferred coalitions, the pensions triple lock, should Starmer resign, and are Reform like the Tories?

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

My latest polling looks at preferred coalitions and tactical voting, which parties have momentum, whether Reform UK are like the Conservatives (and in a good or bad way), whether Keir Starmer should resign, and which Labour leadership contender would make the best prime minister. Ahead of International Women’s Day, we also look at favourability towards current and recent female politicians.

Preferred coalitions

 

Advertisement

Overall, voters were more likely to say they would prefer a Labour-Lib Dem-Green coalition (43 per cent) than a Conservative-Reform coalition (33 per cent), with just under a quarter saying they didn’t know.

Those currently intending to vote Labour, Green and Lib Dem overwhelmingly preferred a coalition of their parties.  On the other side, nearly nine in ten of those leaning towards Reform said they would prefer a coalition of their party and the Conservatives. However, only just over seven in ten of those intending to vote Conservative said they would prefer a coalition with Reform; more than one fifth of current Tories said they didn’t know which coalition they would prefer.

 The Labour government

Only 7 per cent of voters overall (including only around one in six 2024 Labour voters) said they thought the current Labour government believed in the right things and was getting them done. A further one in five (including 40 per cent of 2024 Labour voters) thought the government believed in the rights things but were not getting them done. Nearly half of all voters, including nearly three in ten 2024 Labour voters, said the government did not seem to know what it believed in.

Advertisement

 

Among those spoken of as potential future Labour leadership contenders, Andy Burnham was comfortably ahead both among voters as a whole and among current and 2024 Labour voters. While there was little to choose between Rayner, Streeting and Miliband in the country as a whole, Labour supporters put Rayner in second place, with Streeting a distant fourth.

When we asked people to name without prompting what they remembered that the Labour government had done since being elected, the two most common answers were lifting the two-child benefit cap and means testing the winter fuel allowance. U-turns and raising employers’ National Insurance were next on the list.

 

Advertisement

Our political map shows what kind of voters have noticed which government actions. Means testing the winter fuel allowance and lifting the two-child benefit cap both appear close to the centre of the map, showing they were recalled across the electorate rather than by any particular group. The Chagos Islands deal, U-turns and tax rises were most likely to be mentioned by those on Conservative and Reform-supporting side of the map, while the minimum wage, NHS waiting lists, rail renationalisation, workers’ rights and school breakfast clubs were more likely to be recalled in Labour, Lib Dem and Green territory.

Nearly a quarter of voters said Keir Starmer should resign if Labour lose the Gorton & Denton by-election, while just over one third said he should not. However, a further 21 per cent said he should resign whatever the result of the by-election.

Slightly more said Starmer should resign if Labour badly in the council elections in May, with 28 per cent saying he should not. Again, just over one in five said he should resign whatever the local election results.

The pension triple lock

 

Advertisement

More than six in ten voters, including majorities of all parties’ supporters, said the pension triple lock should be kept. Nearly 90 per cent of those aged sixty-five or over said it should be kept, compared to four in ten of those aged 18-24.

Are Reform UK like the Conservatives?

 

Just under half of all voters, including around three quarters of current Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters, said they thought of Reform UK as being a bit like the Conservatives, in a bad way. Just over half of those currently intending to vote Reform said they thought of the party as being a bit like the Conservatives in a good way, while just over one third of them thought Reform were not like the Conservatives.

Advertisement

Party momentum

Reform UK were the party most likely to be considered “on the way up”, followed by the Greens. Nearly seven in ten said they thought Labour were on their way down, including a majority of those who voted Labour in 2024.

Female politicians

 

Advertisement

In advance of International Women’s Day, we asked how favourable people felt towards various current and recent living female politicians. Ranked in order of the proportion saying they had a favourable view, Kemi Badnoch topped the list, followed by Theresa May, Angela Rayner and Jess Phillips. Next were Nicola Sturgeon, Harriet Harman, Caroline Lucas and Yvette Cooper. Below, our political map shows how favourability towards these individuals is distributed across the population:

Trust on the economy

Asked who would do the better job running the economy, voters chose Kemi Badenoch and Mel Stride over Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves by a 4-point margin, with 40 per cent saying, “don’t know”. Only just over half of 2024 Labour voters named the Labour team; more than seven in ten 2024 Conservatives chose the Tory team.

Best (and most likely) prime minister

Advertisement

 

In a head-to-head question, Badenoch led Starmer by one point with just over one third saying “don’t know”. Just over six in ten 2024 Labour voters say Starmer would make the better PM, while nearly three quarters of 2024 Conservatives named Badenoch. Those who voted Reform UK in 2024 said they preferred Badenoch to Starmer by a 61-point margin, with one in three saying “don’t know”.

Given a choice between Starmer and Farage, voters as a whole chose Starmer by 13 points. 2024 Conservatives chose Farage over Starmer by 53 per cent to 15 per cent, while 2024 Labour voters chose Starmer by 75 per cent to 8 per cent. Lib Dems chose Starmer by a 58-point margin, and Green voters did so by 57 points.

 

Offered a choice between Starmer, Badenoch and Farage, voters chose Starmer over Farage by a 12-point margin, with Badenoch in third place on 18 per cent. 2024 Conservative voters preferred Badenoch over Farage by a 19-point margin (up from 6 points in November), and 2024 Labour voters preferred Starmer over Badenoch by 58 points.

Advertisement

Nigel Farage was thought the most likely person to be PM after the next election, with 29 per cent naming him as the most likely candidate. Only one in ten thought Starmer would still be in the job and 7 per cent named Badenoch. More than one fifth thought someone other than these three would be PM. More than eight in ten of those currently intending to vote Reform thought Farage would be PM, compared to fewer than four in ten current Labour leaners who thought Starmer would be PM and just over a quarter of current Conservative supporters who thought Badenoch would have the job.

When we asked how likely people were to end up voting for each party at the next election on a scale from zero to 100, those who voted Labour in 2024 put their chances of doing so again at the next election at an average of 43/100. Those who switched to Labour in 2024 put their chances of voting for the party again next time at 34/100, and those who switched from the Conservatives to Labour in 2024 put their chances of voting Labour again next time at an average of 27/100.  Looking at those more likely than not to vote for a particular party (those whose highest likelihood of voting for one party was at least 50/100), this implies current vote shares of Reform UK 22 per cent, Conservative 20 per cent, Green 19 per cent, Labour 17% per cent, Lib Dems 11 per cent, Others 10 per cent.

As above, our political map shows how different issues, attributes, personalities and opinions interact with one another. Each point shows where we are most likely to find people with that characteristic or opinion; the closer the plot points are to each other the more closely related they are. Here we see the distribution of opinion on the Labour government, the pensions triple lock, most likely prime minister and whether or not Reform are like the Conservatives.

Full data tables available at LordAshcroftPolls.com

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Politics

Donald Trump Attacks Keir Starmer Over Iran Bombing

Published

on

Donald Trump Attacks Keir Starmer Over Iran Bombing

Donald Trump has launched a fresh attack on Keir Starmer’s over the prime minister’s response to America and Israel’s decision to bomb Iran.

The US president said the prime minister has “not been helpful” after he initially refused to let the countries use British military bases to carry out their attack.

His comments to The Sun come a day after he said he was “very disappointed” in the PM – leading to a Commons rebuke from Starmer.

The prime minister told MPs the UK would not be involved in “offensive” operations in Iran.

Advertisement

However, he said the US could use British bases – including one on Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands – to bomb weapons storage facilities and missile launch sites.

Nevertheless, Trump told The Sun that he felt let down by Starmer.

“He has not been helpful,” he said. “I never thought I’d see that. I never thought I’d see that from the UK. We love the UK.”

He added: “It’s not going to matter, but [Starmer] should have helped… he should have.

Advertisement

“I mean, France has been great. They’ve all been great. The UK has been much different from others.”

Trump continues: “You’ve seen the secretary general of NATO, the great things he said, Mark Rutte, he’s great.

“No, they’ve all been pretty much great other than…we think Keir’s was just very different.”

The president the US-UK spat over Iran meant “it’s just a much different kind of relationship that we’ve had with your country before”.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Will MPs finally tackle the terrible tax trap?

Published

on

Will MPs finally tackle the terrible tax trap?

Later today Rachel Reeves will deliver her Spring Statement to the Commons. She has not, it must be said, helmed the happiest run of these set-piece occasions. Her first Budget involved roughly £40 billion in tax rises. Another was memorably marred by an early leak of market-sensitive material. 

Yet it is not only in the grand moments that this government has struggled. Growth has been anaemic, the tax burden is at a post-war high, and there remains a sizeable contingent on the Labour benches for whom spending restraint is an unknown, perhaps faintly distasteful, concept. Even Tony Blair agrees as much.

Still, amid the familiar gloom, one piece of wage news this week may – just possibly – carry the seeds of long-term reform, albeit not for the reason its authors intended.

MPs’ salaries are now set to rise to around £110,000 by the end of this Parliament, ostensibly in recognition of growing demands on their time and swelling casework (though cynics might observe that much of this burden is borne by their long-suffering staff). The immediate uplift amounts to roughly 5 per cent – an inflation-busting figure beside the 3.3 per cent reportedly pencilled in for nurses and the 3.5 per cent for parliamentary staff.

Advertisement

There’s an argument to pay MPs more, to attract better talent and pull people away from their already high-paid jobs. But this particular increase has an intriguing side effect: it nudges many MPs squarely into one of Britain’s most perverse fiscal contraptions.

By placing it above £100,000 it might just push MPs into fixing the horrendous, work-discincentivising tax trap, whereby earners on between £100,000 and £125,140 face an effective 60 per cent marginal tax rate. 

For every £2 earned over £100,000, £1 of the personal allowance is lost, creating the hidden tax band on top of the 40 per cent higher rate.

Plus earners in this bracket see the end of free child support. Workers end up worse off as they earn more.

Advertisement

With an MP’s salary north of £100,000, many parliamentarians will now find themselves staring directly into this fiscal abyss for the first time. It would be the latest in Westminster waking up to issues that they personally feel.

Take student loans. While Kemi Badenoch has recently led the way on the issue in opposition – pledging to cut interest rates on student loans – there are young Labour MPs who have been feeling the pain of repayments personally, and it might lead to yet another U-turn from Sir Keir Starmer and his Chancellor.

Labour MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip Danny Beales last night tweeted:

“It’s time to talk about student loans and the need to deliver change. 

Advertisement

“The Plan 2 system has effectively become a graduate tax – with many feeling the system is unfair and regressive.

“Last week, I outlined the need for change in my letter to the Chancellor.”

Beales’ letter says he “does not regret taking out the loan” but many other new, young MPs have spoken about their £90,000 debt under the Plan 2 system, and I can’t now imagine wanting to accidentally fall into a higher marginal tax rate. With this pay rise, MPs who still have student debt will end up paying a marginal tax rate of 71 per cent over £100,000 and 77 per cent for postgrads.

Maybe this is the state we have got to, we need our parliamentarians to have directly felt an issue to want to fix it. It concentrates the mind.

Advertisement

But perhaps the best solution is one floated by the Taxpayers’ Alliance (TPA), acknowledged by shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith, and even hinted at by Business Secretary Peter Kyle: link MPs’ pay to GDP per capita, which measures the average economic output per person.

Kyle said to link their pay to overall GDP to encourage departments to do more to boost economic growth, but doing so with GDP per capita is a better prompt for this – tying it to the prosperity of individual Brits.

And Griffith had suggested doing so with senior civil servants to “bring a sharper focus next time Whitehall is introducing more red tape on business”.

If it were to apply to MPs it would, according to research from the TPA, lead to an actual pay cut. If MPs’ pay had gone up by GDP per capita since 2010, their pay would be £81,945.

Advertisement

As their campaigns director and our ConHome columnist Elliot Keck writes: “That’s brutal, but it’s just a reflection of the decades of terrible policy choices made by Parliament.”

Maybe then we would see more than just a reconsideration of the tax trap, maybe we would see pro-growth policies finally enacted.

Nothing clarifies the case for economic reform quite like paying the bill yourself.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Rubio Muddies Trump’s Message By Saying Iran Strikes Were Actually ‘Proactive’

Published

on

Secretary of State Marco Rubio addresses the press before briefing House and Senate leaders on U.S. military action in Iran.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, about to step into a meeting with members of Congress, contradicted what some of those members had been told over the weekend about President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran.

Senator Mark Warner, one of the “Gang of Eight,” said on Sunday he was told there had been no intelligence indicating Iran was just about to strike US assets.

But on Monday, Rubio told reporters: “There absolutely was an imminent threat, and the imminent threat was that we knew that if Iran was attacked — and we believed they would be attacked — that they would immediately come after us,” he said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio addresses the press before briefing House and Senate leaders on U.S. military action in Iran.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio addresses the press before briefing House and Senate leaders on U.S. military action in Iran.

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI via Getty Images

Rubio added that the US was aware Israel was planning to take action against Iran, and officials believed that those strikes would have prompted an Iranian response against US assets.

Advertisement

“We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties,” he said.

“We went proactively in a defensive way to prevent them from inflicting higher damage,” Rubio said.

Rubio went on to note that the US “would love” to see a new regime in Iran, but stressed that the main purpose of the military operation was to weaken Iran’s ballistic missile and naval capabilities.

Those comments appeared to suggest the US’s goals for the military operation involved undermining Iran’s access to weapons in the longterm, in addition to addressing an “imminent threat.”

Advertisement

Rubio also echoed the president when he said “the hardest hits” against Iran “are yet to come,” while offering an open-ended estimate for the timing of the conflict.

“I don’t know how long it will take, we have objectives,” he said. “We will do this as long as it takes to achieve those objectives.”

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Politics

Greens Leapfrog Labour Into Second Place In New Poll

Published

on

Greens Leapfrog Labour Into Second Place In New Poll

The Green Party has leapfrogged Labour into second place across the UK in the wake of the party’s stunning victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, according to a new poll.

The YouGov survey for Sky News and The Times put the party on 21% after their support surged by four points in the past week.

The pollster said it was the highest level of support for the Greens that they have ever recorded.

The party is now just two points behind Reform UK, who are on 23%, and five points ahead of Labour, who slumped by two points to just 16%.

Advertisement

The Tories are also on 16% after falling two points, while the Lib Dems are unchanged on 14%.

A YouGov spokesman said: “This is the highest we’ve had the Greens and the first time we’ve had them in second. It is also the lowest we have had Labour.

“In terms of how meaningful this is, it is obviously likely driven to a significant extent by the publicity from the Denton and Gorton by-election, as well as any impact it has from the Greens appearing a more viable option and less of a wasted vote.

“It remains to be seen to what extent it sticks, or whether it fades again as the immediate publicity boost recedes.”

Advertisement

The Greens’ Hannah Spencer caused a political earthquake with her by-election victory last Thursday, which saw Labour beaten into third place in what had been one of their safest seats.

In a further boost for the party, it was announced on Sunday that its membership has now topped 200,000 – three times what it was when Zack Polanski was elected leader last September.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Politics

David Willetts: Apprenticeships and the ‘New Deal’ for young people

Published

on

David Willetts: Apprenticeships and the 'New Deal' for young people

David Willetts is President of the Resolution Foundation and is a member of the House of Lords.

One of the strong themes on Conservative Home is the importance of the Conservative Party reaching out to younger voters.

So it is great to see the Conservative Party launching its New Deal for Young People which is a bold attempt to plug this gap. Any evidence of the party thinking beyond its core vote of pensioners is to be welcomed.

There are three particular proposals.

Advertisement

First Kemi caught the mood with her proposal to get rid of interest rates on graduate debt. That is certainly a hot topic at the moment. The terms of graduate repayment for the cost of their education should be open to change with proper political debate about the trade-offs. The interest rates have always been the most unpopular feature of the model so it is understandable to try to do something about them. Hitting RPI + 3 per cent when earnings go above £51,000 is a painful blow, especially after the replacement of maintenance grants with loans and then periods of high inflation mean that total graduate debt can now be much bigger than originally envisaged.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has just done a useful analysis of this and other options and estimate that:

For those who started courses in 2022/23, this proposal would on average reduce lifetime loan repayments by £11,000 in today’s prices on average. The 30% of graduates with the highest lifetime earnings could expect to save upwards of £20,000. Many low-earning graduates would never repay any less as a result of the Conservative proposal – with almost no change in lifetime repayments amongst the fifth of graduates with the lowest lifetime earnings.

That is a significant boost for higher earning graduates. Once all graduates in Stage 2 are included the IFS estimate a “low-single-digit billions hit to government receipts each year, for the next 30 years.”

Advertisement

However this change does not affect monthly repayments – the gain comes in paying back sooner.

It you really want to help boost living standards of younger graduates you raise the repayment threshold, so their fixed monthly out-goings are cut. And it was of course the freeze of the repayment threshold which was the original trigger for the current political row.

There are tricky trade-offs here between size of debt, monthly repayment, and length of repayment period.  I continue to believe that every five years we should have a proper informed open assessment of the best way to make these trade-offs. Governments should then set the repayment terms in ways which make intuitive sense such as graduates only start paying back when their incomes are close to the average pay of non-graduates.

The Tory leadership have in their sights degrees leading to low salaries – and after long battles it is great that data is available. If those courses close then prospective students may choose a different university course instead rather than head to an apprenticeship instead. It would be wrong to stop them going to courses which appear to offer better value and I understand it is not Conservative policy to erect such barriers. Such a shift to a different course could however reduce loan write-offs which yields a type of expenditure saving.

Advertisement

Apprenticeships are always popular. But numbers of apprenticeship starts are falling.  The second proposal in the New Deal is to boost apprenticeships for 18–21-year-olds. This is well targeted. During the last years of Conservative Government apprenticeships moved a long way from their original purpose. They became predominantly higher-level qualifications for people aged over 25 (who are now half of all apprentices starts). It is right to refocus them on 18–21-year-olds.

There is a levy on employers to pay from apprenticeships though the intention is that these extra places should be financed differently. Nevertheless reform of the Apprenticeship levy should be on the agenda. Each employer gets first claim on the levy they have paid and understandably tend to use it on extra training for their current employees rather than new recruits. That is why the growth in apprenticeships has been in degree level apprenticeships for older employees whereas places for younger people at lower educational levels have been falling. There needs to be a strong financial incentive to get them to shift to younger people, new recruits, and perhaps a qualification at a lower education level such as A level equivalent rather than full honours degree. This could be delivered out of existing resources if degree apprenticeships were financed out of fees and loans like other higher-level qualifications.

The third proposal is a “£5,000 First Job Bonus, allowing young people to keep the first £5,000 of National Insurance they would have paid and placing it into a savings account for a first home or future security

When we at Resolution Foundation looked at how best to help younger people we proposed a capital grant of £10,000. These types of schemes are in the tradition of council house sales and privatisation share sales as opportunities to spread ownership. But they are if anything more widely accessible.  It is a great way of helping young people build up assets. It has a cost of perhaps about £3b a year. We are entering an inheritocracy where building up assets out of income has got harder.

Advertisement

The real opportunity agenda is to spread property ownership and this proposal is an important part of that.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Politics

Why Is Trump Attacking Iran? He’s Still Figuring It Out.

Published

on

Donald Trump discusses combat operations in Iran on Sunday in Palm Beach, Florida.

The United States began a war with Iran to re-obliterate Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, which purportedly was originally obliterated just eight months ago.

Or maybe it’s because Iran refused to make a “deal.” Or perhaps to replace the hard-line Islamic regime with democracy and freedom. Or replace the current ruler of the hard-line Islamic regime with a different hard-line Islamic ruler.

According to President Donald Trump, it is all of these reasons. Or some mix of them. Or something completely different.

As the biggest US military build-up in two decades and its resultant massive air attack on Iran winds up its third day, the rationale for it still appears to be a work in progress. Trump, after a brief video early on Saturday morning announcing that the attack had started, still has not given Congress or the American people a detailed explanation of why he is doing so.

Advertisement

“The decision to put American service members in harm’s way demands clarity, consistency, and honesty with Congress and the public,” said Virginia Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “So far, we’ve got none of those things.”

In remarks before a White House ceremony for Congressional Medal of Honour recipients, Trump claimed on Monday the attack was to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons programme — a programme he repeatedly insisted he had “obliterated” last June.

“We warned Iran not to make any attempt to rebuild at a different location because they were unable to use the ones we so powerfully blew up,” he said. “But they ignored those warnings and refused to cease their pursuit of nuclear weapons.”

Donald Trump discusses combat operations in Iran on Sunday in Palm Beach, Florida.
Donald Trump discusses combat operations in Iran on Sunday in Palm Beach, Florida.

President Trump Via Truth Social/Anadolu via Getty Images

Prior to those brief comments, Trump had spent two and a half days floating a variety of different explanations with a number of short interviews with nearly a dozen different print and television outlets.

Advertisement

To The Washington Post, just three hours after the attack began in the pre-dawn hours Saturday, Trump said he did it for the Iranians themselves: “All I want is freedom for the people.”

He told The New York Times the following day that he hoped Iran’s military and security forces would simply give up and give their weapons to protesters. “They would really surrender to the people, if you think about it,” he said.

Yet he told both the Times and Fox News that the attack on Venezuela’s capital in January and arrest of its dictator could serve as a “template” for Iran, in which Trump could install a new leader who was more accommodating to his demands without altering the nature of the regime.

But he told ABC News that he couldn’t do that because the air strikes killed too many of Iran’s top officials, including those he might have installed in power. “The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates,” Trump told ABC. “It’s not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead.”

Advertisement

And to The Atlantic, Trump blamed Iran for not agreeing to one of his favourite words, a “deal.”

“They could have made a deal. They should’ve done it sooner. They played too cute,” he said before bragging that presidents for half a century had wanted to do what he just did, but that only he had the guts to do so. “People have wanted to do it for 47 years.”

Trump expanded on that in an interview with CNN on Monday morning: “We don’t know who the leadership is. We don’t know who they’ll pick. Maybe they’ll get lucky and get someone who knows what they’re doing … we don’t know who’s leading the country now. They don’t know who’s leading. It’s a little like the unemployment line.”

Trump’s lack of a focused message on why he has put service members in harm’s way ― four have been killed to date, with four more seriously wounded ― has also left Americans confused. According to a new CNN poll, 60% of respondents said Trump lacked a plan for his attacks, including 70% of self-described independents.

Advertisement

The conflicting explanations were not restricted to Trump personally. On Saturday, a group of hand-picked reporters received a “background” briefing from Trump administration officials who said the attack happened because of intelligence reports that Iran was about to attack US air bases in the region. That, though, was contradicted the following day when congressional staffers were told there was no intelligence that Iranian strikes were imminent.

“His team has suggested in the media that this action was necessary because of a planned preemptive attack by Iran – a fiction totally unsupported by any intelligence that I’ve seen or been presented as a member of the ‘Gang of Eight,’” Senator Mark Warner said.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Politics

Elliot Keck: Councils are spending more and more on taking children to school in taxis

Published

on

Elliot Keck: Councils are spending more and more on taking children to school in taxis

Elliott Keck is the Campaigns Director for the Taxpayers’ Alliance.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Centrist Dems met to plot 2028. Then Iran happened.

Published

on

At a gathering of top consultants and strategists, center-left Democrats pitched how to talk about foreign policy in 2028.

CHARLESTON, S.C. — Hours after the American military strikes in Iran started, Third Way co-founder Matt Bennett scrambled to write up a presentation on how centrist Democrats should talk about foreign policy in 2028.

On stage during Third Way’s “Winning the Middle” conference, Bennett described focus groups before the war in Iran started, where “the appetite for ongoing war among the voters we talked to was zero.”

Even though Americans usually default to Republicans on national security, they’re concerned about President Donald Trump’s “erratic” and “unstable” foreign policy, he told a crowd of early-state strategists, Democratic consultants and aides for prominent moderates and 2028 contenders. That, he added, gives Democrats the opening they need to win.

“Voters are going to ask, ‘who can steady the ship? Who’s going to avoid another endless war? Will we demand fairness from our allies?’” Bennett said during his presentation. “You must be decisive and you must be clear that American self-interest will drive your foreign policy.”

Advertisement

The American strikes in Iran reverberated through what was meant to be a domestic-focused conference on Monday, as the party starts to grapple with how to respond to a military maneuver that could become a flashpoint in the midterms. So far, Democrats have been largely united in attacking Trump for authorizing the attacks without Congress’ approval — or a clear exit strategy.

It’s a notable departure for moderates, some of whom backed the Iraq War in 2003, including then-Sen. Hillary Clinton. Her vote, and then-Sen. Barack Obama’s vote against it, would define much of the 2008 presidential primary.

“Democrats don’t want a replay of the Iraq War and they are heeding the calls of the American people to focus on issues here at home,” Doug Thornell, a Democratic strategist who advised Maryland Gov. Wes Moore’s campaign, said at the conference in an interview. “This administration has done very little to make the case that this is something worth the blood and treasure of the United States.”

At a gathering of top consultants and strategists, center-left Democrats pitched how to talk about foreign policy in 2028.

There’s early evidence voters broadly disapprove of the Iran strikes: A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only one in four Americans support Trump’s decision — a data point that zinged around Democrats’ group chats during the afternoon’s presentations.

Advertisement

Mentions of Iran were limited during the conference’s panels, which drilled in on domestic issues: “‘Affordability’: Buzzword or Breakthrough,” and “Elevating Moderate Voices Online.” But within minutes of kicking off the event Sunday night, Third Way president Jon Cowan addressed the war.

“You can hate the regime in Iran and you can celebrate their downfall, but you can also have legitimate skepticism about the war because you can have doubts about Trump’s truthiness,” he said.

Online and in TV interviews, some fractures have begun to emerge.

Several progressives, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have pushed for an immediate end to the war. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), who is running for governor, called for “values-based arguments against war with Iran,” and “NOT process (‘Come to Congress’) ones,” in an X post on Saturday. That’s an apparent reference to Democrats like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffriees and battleground lawmakers who’ve taken a more measured response.

Advertisement

Jeffries, in his initial statement, condemned Trump for failing to seek congressional authorization and called for Iran to be “aggressively confronted.” Jeffries said Monday morning on CNN that “nothing has been presented to justify what’s taken place up until this point.”

“The crutch that the moderate, corporate wing of the party is using is a process argument,” said Usamah Andrabi, Justice Democrats’ communications director. “It’s not just that Trump didn’t come to Congress first, we need to oppose this war no matter the process and Democratic leadership has not done that clearly enough.”

One adviser to a potential 2028 candidate, granted anonymity to speak candidly, defended the more nuanced approach from moderate Democrats as a reflection of “people’s understanding that just opposing every single thing that [Trump] does, from a foreign policy standpoint, just because it was him doing it, is not a sufficient approach.”

The two-day confab was primarily focused on doling out tough-love guidance to allies, consultants and early-state strategists, some of whom are aligned with centrist potential 2028 presidential candidates, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Advertisement

With an eye toward 2028, Third Way’s senior vice president Lanae Erickson presented polling dataon Democratic primary voters. She said three-quarters prefer a candidate who compromises to achieve their goals and two-thirds worry that nominating someone too far left risks losing the general election.

“If we’re going to be the ‘abolish police,’ ‘abolish ICE,’ virtue-signaling party, I don’t care who they nominate, we’re going to lose,” said Jim Messina, who served as Barack Obama’s campaign manager. “We continue to want to be ideological purists at exactly the wrong time to do that.”

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Politics

When will racism end in football?

Published

on

There is no 'liberal' Zionism: Polanski criticised over fluffed LBC interview

Football is a universal language. Yet today it seems powerless to protect one of its brightest stars, Vinicius Junior, from racist abuse.

Sport’s oldest disgrace

Since his arrival at Real Madrid in 2018, he has been subjected to relentless racist chants and abuse, both in Spain and abroad. This raises an embarrassing question for football itself. Why does one player remain a constant target of discrimination based on skin colour?

The latest incident occurred during the first leg of the Champions League playoff between Real Madrid and Benfica in Lisbon. The match ended in a 1-0 victory for Real Madrid thanks to a goal by Vinicius.

However, the sporting result was overshadowed by a shocking incident – racist abuse directed at the Brazilian player by Argentinian Gianluca Brestiani. French referee François Letissier halted the match for ten minutes to investigate. Meanwhile, Portuguese coach José Mourinho intervened to defuse the situation. In addition, football authorities looked on.

Advertisement

Racism on the pitch

The attacks did not stop there. After his goal, Vinicius was subjected to further racist chants and had bottles thrown at him by some fans, marking another dark moment for football.

The European Union opened a formal investigation, and Prisciani was provisionally suspended for one match pending a final decision. Furthermore, the penalty could be increased to several matches. This would be similar to the 2021 incident between Ondré Kodéla and Glenn Camara. That case resulted in lengthy suspensions.

It is noteworthy that Real Madrid boasts other Black stars such as Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Antonio Rüdiger, Kylian Mbappé, and David Alaba.

Yet Vinicius remains the most targeted. Is it his flamboyant style and unrivalled dribbling skills that irk his opponents? Or his celebrations, which combine dancing and gestures of silence in front of the fans? The problem is worryingly far deeper. It is rooted in a stadium culture that tolerates racist abuse across football clubs.

Calls for stricter penalties

In 2023, Rio de Janeiro state authorities attempted to send a powerful symbolic message by naming an anti-racism law in stadiums after the player. But symbolism alone is not enough for the football community.

The demand today is clear. Football fans are urging FIFA and UEFA to implement strict penalties, including hefty fines, point deductions for clubs, fan bans, lengthy suspensions, and potentially match cancellations for repeated offences.

Advertisement

Additionally, they must establish rigorous protocols for referees to immediately stop any racist abuse and reinforce football’s integrity at every opportunity.

Sticking points

Racism in stadiums is not just fleeting chants. It threatens the very essence of football, which is built on fair competition, equality, and mutual respect.

The Vinicius case today transcends a single player; it is a true test of the football system’s ability to protect its core values. Either stadiums become spaces of justice and respect, or they become a mirror reflecting the worst aspects of society.

With all these recurring incidents, the question always remains: When will racism in football finally end?

Advertisement

Featured image via the Canary

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Politics

Food bank use surges among UK students

Published

on

Food bank use surges among UK students

Holly Dougan, a student, told the BBC that food bank use is now ‘essential’ for many students. Meanwhile, the wealth accumulated by the richest 50 households exceeds that of the bottom 50 percent of the country.

Crippling consequences

The cost of living crisis and lack of student funding – both a consequence of economic inequality – have crippled students and driven greater reliance on food banks.

Meanwhile, if the super-rich continue to accumulate wealth at the rate of recent years, 200 families will have more wealth than the entire country’s GDP by 2035, according to the Equality Trust.

One student union has seen a 20% rise in students using The Pantry, a university food bank. The president of the union in Belfast said:

Advertisement

It is unbelievable the amount of students that use The Pantry, we have over 200 students visiting every day

She continued:

A lot of our students would struggle to eat and have meals, and have three meals a day let alone one so it’s really something for our students to not have to choose between heating or eating… A lot of this comes from students not having enough money within loans, rent prices are increasing a lot and I think that’s very much a contributing factor.

Ben Friel, the National Union of Students NI president, added:

Maybe 10 or 15 years ago a students’ union would just be a place that people went on nights out, had a fun time, but now we’re in a situation where students’ unions have had to step up to the plate… Students aren’t just here for a night out, students get degrees, they come and contribute to the economy… Fundamentally we need to rethink how we look at students as a whole.

Wider food bank use

It’s not just students using food banks. From 2010-2025, their use in the UK surged by 5000 percent.

Moreover, 15 percent of UK households are living in food insecurity, effecting eight million adults and three million children. In September, union leaders called on Keir Starmer to put a stop to the issue:

Advertisement

We simply cannot allow food banks to be seen as a normal part of life in the 21st Century. People are already at breaking point. You must tackle food insecurity and end food bank Britain.

With obscene levels of inequality, there’s no place for food bank use in modern Britain.

Featured image via Unsplash/the Canary

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025