Our Survey: Badenoch backed on candidates and the party not running in Clacton

Kemi Badenoch has been criticised over this summer for four things that opponents, and some fellow Conservatives or Conservative supporters have raised.

The decision to back Joshua Bonehill-Paine as a council candidate, despite him having been jailed some years ago for a neo-nazi anti-semitic and misogynist hate campaign waged towards some former MPs including Luciana Berger, has prompted questions about her judgement, some on the pages of this site.

I repeat my own concern which was a the risk of looking like she’d made a special exception for a person who has been a vocal and passionate supporter of the lady herself for well over a year, whilst imposing a discipline on all her new candidates and seeing people such as Sir Grant Shapps rejected as a candidate.

The reassuring news for Badenoch is that our survey response, whilst it doesn’t tackle the case of Joshua Bonehill-Paine is clear on the decision to have all candidates sign up to the Party position on Net-Zero (which is not by the way to scrap it, just how you achieve it without hobbling bill payers) and to leaving the ECHR.

80 percent of responders back this candidate policy and only 16.8 percent disgree. Though of course to take part in our survery that 16.8 percent are still Conservatives members, or were at the time the survey took place. They may disagree but it hasn’t pushed them out.

Of course one by-election where no Conservative candidate is standing is the slightly bizarre Clacton vote this Thursday 13th August. Where the former MP Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, resigned the seat inorder to win it again. He is highly likely to do so, but even if he got every vote there was, and he won’t, the investigation into his funds, especially whether he should have declared a £5m ‘gift’ from a Thai based crypto billionaire, will simply resume, whatever the result.

Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Conservative party all decided not to field a candidate in what Badenoch branded a ‘fake’ by-election. Reform, predicatably, claimed everyone was scared of standing against Farage. Count Binface is currently his closest rival in the contest. Reform wasted no time on criticising the Tories for not standing.

But did Conservative members agree with the decision not to stand?

Well 73.4 percent said the Conservatives were right not to put up a candidate. They have already indicated they will field a candidate if a second by-election is held, if it comes as a result of a recall petition, should Parliamentary Standards Committee’s investigation lead to a suspension for breaching the rules (rules that apply to all MPs whatever their party) Again those members who disagree are not invisible, 22.3 per cent thought a candidate should have been chosen to contest Clacton, but there’s still almost three quarters of responders backing the party’s stance.

It’s led also to a much more mixed response to the question I suggested would find it’s definitive answer this year, about ‘uniting the right’ – a scenario that still tends to mean some form of accommodation between the Conservatives and Reform and/or possibly Restore.

There are still Conservatives who think Badenoch is wrong not to talk to Farage, and despair that Farage continues to claim the Tories are ‘dead’ or ‘finished’.

From these figures we can see 65.8 percent still think some form of ‘uniting’ will occur but are closely split on when that might be – slightly more thinking it will come after a general election. But that 27.3 figure who don’t believe it will happen at all is new, and larger than we’ve seen in the last two years.

What we don’t know is what proportion of that 27.3 per cent is unhappy about it but still believes it won’t happen (Badenoch has been absolutely clear she doesn’t want any deal) or whether they are all saying that because they like her believe it would be a mistake.

We’ve consistently argued that electoral maths would force the question, rather than individuals or party members but it seems further away as a prospect than it has for two years and I know a large number of Tories who put this down to what they see as a relentless campaign by Reform spokespeople to rubbish the Tories or declare they want to ‘destroy’ the party.

It’s a predictably human response to want to bite the hand that is constantly seeking to smack you in the face. My own view is it has been a motivator for committed Conservatives to get back to campaigning, after the impact of the 2024 election defeat.

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