Our Survey: Big support for Badenoch’s position at the start of the Iran war and for increased defence spending

The Prime Minister has consistently characterised Kemi Badenoch’s position that the UK should have allowed the US use of our military bases when requested for their strikes on Iran – especially Akrotiri, in Cyprus, Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands (still British, just) and Fareford, in the UK – as “wanting a war”.

Phrases such as gung-ho, and warmongering have been levelled at the Conservatives, and indeed Reform. It seems patently obvious that Keir Starmer has decided to tack towards holding on to any Muslim voters he’s not yet shed to the Greens and capitalise on the general unpopularity of President Trump in the UK.

However our most recent survey, taken exactly a month before US and Israeli strikes on Iran shows huge support for Badenoch’s statement that she would have granted use of UK bases to the American when requested from the start of operations.

81.2 per cent of responders were clear, the UK should have granted American allies use of the bases. Argument will rage as to whether that counts as ‘participation’ or ‘not involved’ as suits whoever is making it, but the PM’s granting of such bases a day later for ‘defensive operations only’ and his insistence that this is not the UK’s war did not stop the Iranian regime firing on Akrotiri, a base in Iraq or attempted two drone strikes on Diego Garcia. It seems we are considered ‘belligerents’ by the regime whether we like it or not. We should not ignore the 11.2 per cent who agreed with the PM’s position but in context of the support for Badenoch’s it’s small.

Perhaps more tricky for the Conservatives defending the line that all Badenoch was saying was she’d have have granted use of our bases from the ‘get go’ is the significant backing members give to the strikes themselves.

62.3 percent say they back the airstrikes on Iran conducted by the US and Israel even a month after the war started and the ripples financially were already being discussed and felt in fuel prices and the costs of living. There’s still almost a quarter of responders who think the strikes were the wrong choice and that number may grow over time depending on outcomes. We will check this again in the future.

The question only tackles the motivation for the strikes being right, not whether the plan will work or if the war will achieve any stated aim, or continue for far longer than the White House had hoped.

However in terms of the UK’s domestic reaction to the war it has prompted an overwhelming response to the question of whether Britain is spending enough on defence and fast enough, given the questions both the Shadow Defence Secretary, James Cartlidge and ConservativeHome’s Tali Fraser have been asking, on this site, about where the Labour Government are with plans for defence spending.

92.8 percent of Conservative members who responded think not only should the Uk spend more on defence but it should do so sooner than the Government’s timeline. Nobody at all thought we should spend less than 2.4 percent of GDP and all other options amounted to just 7.2 per cent of responses.

The news is still focussed on what President Trump does next in Iran, but increasingly also on the effects globally of this conflict. One suspects that those number supporting the initial intent to strike Iran might be porous over time, but the defence spending response will only solidify as the geo-political situation around the world remains febrile, and great powers exercise their might with greater freedom.