Our Survey: Could Conservatives bring themselves to vote tactically or back a pact?

Makerfield is the constituency on everyone’s mind. The by-election, set for 18 June, is a fork in the road moment for the Labour government, as it gives the prince over the water – the proclaimed ‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham – a chance to cross over and take the crown. But Reform UK too have it firmly set in their sights, and as one Tory put it to me: “If you could design a model seat for Reform, this is it.”

Yet there is another by-election on the very same day: Aberdeen South, where voters will replace Stephen Flynn, who has swapped Westminster for Holyrood as an SNP MSP. Here the Tories stand a chance at electoral victory after a strong showing during the recent Scottish Parliament elections – and the message from the Conservative Party will be simple: ‘Vote Reform, get the SNP.’

The twin by-elections have unleashed a fresh discourse: should there be some sort of electoral pact with Reform? The option has been floated by two Conservatives – one current MP, one former MP – as a way of consolidating the right and holding back Burnham, whom they regard as disastrous for the economy.

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former Tory business secretary, suggested to The Telegraph that the parties “work together” as it is a “golden opportunity for the right to unite” and give Labour “a nasty surpise”.

The longest-serving MP, father of the House Sir Edward Leigh, similarly proposed that the Tories not field a candidate in Makerfield, but in return for Reform not standing in Aberdeen South.

“If doing some kind of deal means we can win Aberdeenshire and save the Union, it’s worth doing. If in any by-election there are two Right-wing parties fighting each other … there will be Left-wing victory,” he said.

As one Conservative MP on the right of the party told me of the Tories and Reform UK: “Aren’t we all conservatives?”

In terms of numbers, if what you want is an elected representative of the right, then yes it could make sense. Combine Reform’s votes with the Tories in Makerfield at the last general election and you’re just over a thousand votes short of Labour (they got 18,202 to a combined 17,182 of Reform and the Tories), and that is before the Labour government blew up. At the Holyrood elections, where Stephen Flynn stood, he just about scraped through with the SNP on 11,788, the Tories on 10,544, and Reform on 6,113. Again, combine the two and there you would have a unionist representative.

But is that really the answer? It is one thing for members of the public to choose to vote tactically – they can look at the previous results in Makerfield and decide that if they once voted Tory they will vote Reform to secure a win on the right – but it is quite another to impose a reduced choice on them.

And, according to our latest ConservativeHome members survey, it doesn’t seem like the sort of thing that would go down well with Conservative Party members, the majority of whom said that at the local elections they voted for the party they usually support – not tactically. Our survey had 56.7 per cent of respondents supporting that, and only 6.44 per cent saying they voted tactically to either stop another party winning or support the option who stood a better chance. They clearly want the option of their party.

As one shadow cabinet minister told me: “We are a national party and everyone should have the option and ability to vote for a Conservative candidate.”

Both Kemi Badenoch and Conservative Party members can then be reassured that they appear to be on the same page. She has ruled out any deals with Nigel Farage, branding such arrangements as “stitch up nonsense” by political parties “that are too lazy to just get on and select people and win on their own account”.

She added: “We will be standing a candidate at this election. Everybody should compete and the people of the constituency should make their choice about who it is they want to represent them.” Under a month to go until that choice is made.

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