Peter Franklin: Does it matter if the Conservative Party becomes the Kemi Show?

Peter Franklin is an Associate Editor of UnHerd.

No one has benefitted more from the release of the Epstein Files than Kemi Badenoch.

Before the Mandelson scandal blew-up again, the political narrative was heading in the wrong direction for her. It wasn’t just the disruptive effect of the defections; it was also the botched response. Those uncalled for remarks about Suella Braverman’s mental health were quickly withdrawn and explained away as an isolated lapse of judgement. However, the mocking tone of Badenoch’s “drama queens” speech on the 28th of January spoke to a deeper problem: the apparent belief that we can convince the country we are the “party of serious people” by means of an unserious speech.

The Gorton and Denton by-election presented Badenoch with another impediment. Our vote in the constituency is already low and likely to be squeezed by Reform. So, again, a further drain on the momentum that she’d accumulated last year.

There’s more bad news to come with the May elections for the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senedd and various councils. These are seats last contested four or five years ago and the results will reflect everything that Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak did to crash the Conservative Party when they were in charge. Unfortunately for Badenoch, she’ll be the one sweeping up the wreckage.

It’ll probably be worse for Labour.

If Starmer hasn’t already gone by that point, then coming third in Scotland and losing in Wales for the first time in a hundred years could be the last straw. And yet the choice of a new Labour leader — and, possibly, an acting prime minister, will extend the period in which the Conservative Party struggles for traction.

Or rather that would have been the case if the Epstein files hadn’t recontextualised the entire narrative.

Far from being sidelined, Badenoch has been handed a starring role. And last week, she played it perfectly.

Rather than using PMQs to grandstand, she got the Prime Minister to make a crucial matter-of-fact admission in front of his stony-faced colleagues. And instead of pushing for a vote of no confidence, which would have united the Labour Party, the use of the humble address procedure gave the whole House the space to extract maximum concessions from the government.

So if Keir Starmer does end up following Morgan McSweeney out the door, it won’t be the winning party in Gorton and Denton that gets the credit, nor the forthcoming triumphs for the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales, nor Starmer’s enemies within the Labour Party. Rather, the clip that’s going to be played over-and-over again is Badenoch’s stiletto of a question: “Can the Prime Minister tell us: did the official security vetting that he received mention Mandelson’s ongoing relationship with the paedophile Jeffrey Epstein?” To which Starmer could only answer: “yes, it did.”

The significance of this moment wasn’t just the admission itself, but that it also focused all eyes on two areas of Conservative strength:

The first is the Conservative Party’s biggest advantage over Reform UK: our status as the Official Opposition. While Conservative shadow ministers face their Labour counterparts over the dispatch box, the eight Reform MPs are stuck at the back with the Corbynites for company. No wonder Nigel Farage prefers to address the nation from the studios of GB News.

The second strength overlaps with the first: Kemi Badenoch’s emergence as the star performer of this parliament. Comparisons are being made to William Hague’s legendary takedowns of Tony Blair in his pomp — but there’s a key difference. Like the jester in the court of a medieval monarch, Hague’s wit served as a safety valve at a time when Blair was otherwise conquering all before him. But Badenoch’s barbs are hitting home and drawing blood. Starmer (or it may be Rachel Reeves or some other minister) emerge diminished from every encounter.

If voters are ready to give the Conservative leader a hearing it is because no one else is better able to articulate the country’s contempt for this disgrace of a government.

This being our most powerful weapon, it makes perfect sense to deploy it at every opportunity. But in the process, we need to be aware that the Conservative Party is fast becoming the Kemi Show.

Of course, we’ve always expected our leaders to take a leading role — it’s right there in the job title. And yet, looking back, the limelight has usually been shared. In Hague’s case, Michael Portillo, Francis Maude and Ann Widdecombe also had starring roles. By the time we clawed our way back into power, the leadership was more of a double act — David Cameron and George Osborne. When Theresa May became Prime Minister, she had no choice but to concede a large slice of power to the leading Brexiteers — Boris Johnson and David Davis. Later, when it all went wrong, she summoned Michael Gove back from exile.

If any of our recent leaders could have hogged all the attention it was Boris Johnson, especially after the triumph of 2019. But even he felt the need to build up a major role for Rishi Sunak — and, subsequently, for Liz Truss too as a counterweight. Truss’s brief time as PM was also something of a partnership — with Kwasi Kwarteng and latterly Jeremy Hunt. When Sunak replaced Truss, he did not share the limelight — but only because there wasn’t any, just a lectern in the rain.

So am I suggesting that Badenoch is a rampant egotist, unwilling to allow other Conservatives their moment in the sun? No, there’s scant evidence of that — in fact she peppers her speeches with shout-outs to colleagues. Nor am I saying that the singular focus on our leader is the result of idleness on the part of shadow ministers. It’s just the attention naturally comes to her. She’s telegenic of course, but much more importantly she’s mastered the art of speaking normally despite the presence of a crowd. I’m afraid that too many of her colleagues still sound like Tory boys or PR persons.

Another reason for the Kemi-alone dynamic is that her backroom advisors are just about invisible. She has no equivalent to a Morgan McSweeney or a Dominic Cummings. Her first chief-of-staff, Lee Rowley, came and went without fanfare. And the  current incumbent, Henry Newman, has a lower profile now than when he was serving in a more junior position under Boris Johnson. That’s not a criticism, by the way. Quite the opposite, in fact — backrooms should not be stages.

The final reason why it’s all about Kemi is that she’s all out of rivals. Of the potential alternative leaders, Robert Jenrick has quit for another party; James Cleverley, having accepted a shadow cabinet role is quietly getting on with that; and Tom Tugendhat appears to be fully focused on geopolitical issues. As for Boris Johnson, he’s failed to contend with his own record in office — and thus won’t be welcome back any time soon.

It’s always worth keeping an eye on future prospects like Katie Lam and Rebecca Paul — as long as one bears in mind just how early in the day it is for them. As for any challenge from the Left of the party — such as the recently launched Prosper UK movement — I’m afraid it’s rather too late. That much is made clear by the group’s list of seventy supporters — which is dominated by former ministers, former MPs and former mayors. If the group doesn’t advance bold new ideas and platform fresh thinkers it’ll be more a case of Remember Us? than Prosper UK.

So, does it matter if the Conservative Party does become the Kemi Show? Well, it’s preferable to be a party of many shining stars, but better one than none. What’s more, in an era of multi-party politics and limited attention spans, it’s an idea to give voters a face and a personality to focus on. After all, it works for Reform, it seems to be working for the Greens and even Ed Davey’s nonsense provides the Lib Dems with a degree of definition.

So unless anyone has any other ideas, Conservatives had better hope that the Kemi Show runs and runs.