Peter Franklin: Farage’s plan to kill the Tories is reaching a dramatic conclusion

Peter Franklin is an Associate Editor of UnHerd.

Just because you’re not paranoid, it doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you. And for the avoidance of doubt, Nigel Farage is out to get us.

When he predicts the “extinction” of the Conservative Party, make no mistake: he’s looking forward to it. Indeed, he wants to be the asteroid that wipes us out like the dinosaurs he thinks we are.

This isn’t just some personal grudge, it’s central to Reform UK’s political strategy. Not unreasonably, the Reform leadership sees the split on the Right as their number one problem. In 2024, the Reform vote elected a handful of the party’s candidates, but ensured the defeat of a much more significant number of Tories. Next time, Farage fears it’ll be the other way round. From his point of view, the most hassle-free scenario in which this doesn’t happen is if his Tory rivals somehow give up and go away.

And yet we’re still here.

Our party conference last year was meant to be a wake, but it didn’t turn out that way. There was a second attempt to strike a mortal blow earlier this year with a run of defections, but the result of all that fuss was a polling stalemate for both parties. Now, for Farage, it’s third time lucky — or so he hopes.

Last week, Kemi Badenoch launched the Conservative local election campaign. Once again she delivered a barn-storming speech, but the Reform calculation is that this won’t matter. The last time that these council seats were fought (plus those in the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd) we were polling at roughly twice the level we are now — and Reform was an irrelevance. Given the dramatic change in the parties’ respective fortunes, it’s hard to see how there won’t be major Tory losses on the 7th May, plus sweeping gains for Reform.

In last year’s locals, we lost 674 councillors and 16 councils while Reform gained 804 councillors and 10 councils. That was bad enough, but not as bad as what happened afterwards to the national polling picture. This is shown most clearly in the Nowcast seat projection for each party, which uses polling data to model out a corresponding general election result.

This time last year, Conservative poll ratings were still high enough to win us a hundred-odd seats. But in the wake of the local election campaign there was a rapid deterioration in our position. All of a sudden, the Nowcast model — along with other projections — showed that the Conservatives would end up with well under fifty MPs. That reflects a slump in vote share of only a few percentage points, but in our electoral system that’s enough to push a party over the cliff-edge.

Of course, Kemi Badenoch’s make-or-break conference speech pulled us back from the brink. We’ve witnessed a partial recovery in our ratings and a definite loss of momentum for Reform. But that’s why Farage has got so much staked on the reaction to this year’s May elections. If, as in 2025, we see a tranche of the Tory base turning turquoise, then that would wipe out all the gains of the “Badenoch bounce”. A demoralised and defeated Conservative Party would then have no choice but to bend the knee to Nigel.

And, yes, I’m assured that actually is the thinking among Reform strategists. But how realistic is it?

As I say, they can look forward to a good night on the 7th May. However, there are several reasons why what happens afterwards won’t be the same as last year.

Firstly, the significance of the 2025 result was the proof it provided that Reform had truly arrived. For wavering Tories wondering whether Reform was electable, here was the indisputable evidence. A vote for Farage is not a wasted vote — or, worse still, a vote that allows Labour to get in. But in 2026, we’ve become accustomed to the new normal. Reform is well ahead in everyopinion poll and Farage favourite to become Prime Minister after the next general election. So a turquoise tsunami this year won’t be the shock to the system that it was last year.

A second big difference for 2026 is that Reform won’t be the only big winners. We can expect an undeserved comeback for the SNP in Scotland; the best ever result for Plaid Cymru in Wales; and a breakthrough for the Greens in London. Nor will the Conservatives be the only losers. Indeed, Labour faces a meltdown. It’s not just that the results will confirm the party’s loss of the Red Wall to Reform, but also that Labour is being eaten away from the Left in the inner cities. Consider, for instance, the forecast that Labour will be pulverised in Birmingham, losing control of England’s second city to a coalition of Muslim independents and the Green Party. In short, there’ll be no shortage of big stories from these elections — but only some of them will be about Reform.

Of course, the biggest story of the lot would be the fall of Keir Starmer. His Cabinet colleagues clearly want rid of him and this would be their big chance. If they take it, the choice of a new Labour leader and PM would obviously relegate the Tory-Reform psychodrama to the sidelines. Then again, by May, we could be in the middle of the worst energy crisis since the 1970s and/or embroiled in a full-scale war with Iran. But, in that case, we won’t care about party politics anyway.

For the moment, I’ll assume we’ll still have that luxury. So, consider a further party political contrast between 2025 and 2026. A year ago, Kemi Badenoch was struggling, but she’s since hit her stride as leader. Just look at the upward trajectory of her approval ratings. It also helps that her only obvious rival within the party has since absented himself. And on the topic of defections, remember that Nigel Farage has set a 7th May deadline for any Conservative MP or councillor thinking of switching camps. So, before long, that’ll be another destabilising factor that no longer applies.

Of course, Badenoch still needs a reset strategy. Not only must she be ready to blame a bad set of election results on the legacy of her predecessors, she’s going to have to do a lotmore work to distance her Conservative Party from the past. Words will not be enough — and especially not when delivered in the passive voice (e.g. “mistakes were made”).

For a start, faces have to change. That means a comprehensive reshuffle. Obviously, promote new talent — but, more importantly, refresh the top team. Badenoch needs a senior shadow cabinet that looks like the next Conservative government, not the last one. The Kemi Show is great, but it’s time for an all-star cast.

Perhaps on another occasion, I’ll name names. But for the purpose of this argument, the key point is that Badenoch has kept her powder dry. There was a nasty moment, a couple of weeks back, when rumours of an imminent Tory reshuffle swept through newsrooms. That would have been premature. The chance for a post-election reset would have been wasted, and any vengeful ejectees would have been ready-and-waiting on the backbenches to put the boot in.

As it is, the initiative remains with the Conservative leader. If she chooses to take it, there’s reason to hope that she can turn a difficult night on the 7th May to her advantage — by pushing her party further and faster towards renewal. Certainly, she doesn’t have to sit there uselessly while Nigel Farage runs away with another million Tory voters.

Crucially, Kemi Badenoch isn’t just playing defence here. By decisively frustrating Farage’s attempt to kill us off, she might just force Reform to rethink its entire strategy. And once both parties realise they’ve got more important things to worry about than each another, anything is possible.