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Politics Home Article | Changes to earned settlement risk deepening child poverty
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The government must publish an impact assessment of its settlement reforms before going ahead with the changes.
Across the UK, families who have played by the rules and built their lives here are now being told the ground is shifting beneath their feet.
The retrospective extension of settlement routes — stretching qualifying periods from 5 years to 10, 15, or even 30 — breaks a fundamental promise at the heart of our immigration system. Migrants are expected to comply with every requirement at significant personal and financial cost, yet this government now appears willing to move the goalposts with minimal notice and scrutiny.
The government’s proposed overhaul of settlement pathways would be one of the most far-reaching rewrites of immigration policy in a generation. It would embed the hostile environment deeper into everyday life, destabilise communities, strain already-fragile public services, and trap hundreds of thousands of people in years of unnecessary insecurity.
New IPPR findings published this week lay bare the scale of the impact. Around 1.35m people already living in the UK would face a longer qualifying period for settlement. Of these, more than 300,000 — nearly one in four — are children. These are not abstract numbers. They are children growing up without security, families unable to plan for the future, and communities left in limbo.
Crucially, these proposals will not affect everyone equally. They will fall hardest on lower-income households, people of colour, women, those with caring responsibilities (particularly single mothers), people with mental or physical health conditions, disabled people, and children. In practice, someone who is unable to work, and therefore cannot meet the income thresholds, could effectively be barred from settlement altogether.
Evidence from the existing 10-year route shows that long, costly and complex pathways drive poverty and housing insecurity, erode people’s sense of belonging, and contribute to serious mental health challenges. These outcomes do not promote integration — they actively undermine it, limiting people’s ability to contribute fully to the society they call home.
Despite the scale of these risks, the government has yet to publish an equalities impact assessment, an economic impact assessment, or a child rights impact assessment for the earned settlement proposals. My parliamentary colleagues and I have been clear: these assessments must be published as a matter of urgency and before any changes are introduced.
This policy also sits in direct conflict with the government’s stated commitment to reduce child poverty and support integration. Extending qualifying periods for settlement and citizenship will lock families into prolonged uncertainty, delay access to stability, and entrench inequality for a growing group of second-class residents, many of them children. Migrant children should not be collateral damage of what amounts to precarity by design.
The retrospective aspect of these changes to an estimated 1.35 million migrants risks creating a huge group of people who feel betrayed by the system because they have already contributed and played by the rules. And we have been here before. The Windrush scandal showed how altering the terms for long-settled communities leads to years of political damage and distrust.
There is growing concern across Parliament about the direction of travel. The government should listen. These proposals fail to recognise that settlement should be the foundation for integration, rather than settlement as a reward that comes only after integration.
It must urgently reconsider its earned settlement proposals, particularly their retrospective application to people who are already living, working and contributing in the UK. Instead of extending insecurity, ministers should focus on building a settlement system that is straightforward, accessible and affordable, one that offers stability within a reasonable timeframe and allows people to put down roots, support their families, and fulfil their potential.
That is how we strengthen communities, reduce poverty, and deliver an immigration system that works for everyone.
Olivia Blake is Labour MP for Sheffield Hallam
