Politics Home Article | The most important document you’ll never (likely) read

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Three dates tell the story of Britain’s climate journey: 2008, 2026 and 2040.

The first is 2008. I was in my early twenties, travelling the country for Friends of the Earth, helping campaign for what became the Climate Change Act. Most days were a mixture of early trains, community halls, church halls and endless cups of tea. We’d meet MPs in Westminster offices, organise public meetings and make the case that Britain needed to think beyond the next election cycle and start planning for the decades ahead.

What started as a job I thought I’d do for a year quickly became something much bigger. The campaign went on to become one of the most supported in Parliament’s history, securing backing from MPs across political parties and across the country.

Britain itself felt very different then. The best-known electric car on the road was probably the G-Wiz, a tiny vehicle with a range of less than 50 miles that looked more at home on a golf course than a motorway.¹ If you spotted solar panels, you tended to point them out. Britain had around 2.9GW of onshore wind capacity, just 3 per cent of our country’s total electricity capacity.² Coal generated around a third of our electricity.³ The idea that Britain could one day run predominantly on clean power rather than dirty fuels wasn’t yet a reality. It was just a vision of the future. 

The Climate Change Act helped turn that vision into a plan, which brings me to the second date: 2026. 

Fast forward nearly twenty years and I have the privilege of serving as Climate Minister, genuinely my dream job. This year, we’re setting Carbon Budget 7. I appreciate that “Carbon Budget 7” sounds less like something that could transform a country and more like the sort of document capable of curing insomnia. But it may be one of the most important documents most people will never read. At its heart, Carbon Budget 7 is Britain’s plan for the years 2038 to 2042. It asks a simple question: if we know where we want to get to, what do we need to build now to make it happen?

If you want proof that long-term planning works, you only need to look around Britain today. 

As I said, when the Climate Change Act was passed, Britain had around 2.9GW of onshore wind. Today, we have over 15GW.⁴ What was once a handful of turbines has become a cornerstone of our energy system.  

In 2008, Britain had just 22MW of solar power installed.⁵ Today, there is over 21GW of capacity.⁶ Solar has gone from something you occasionally spotted on a roof to something woven into everyday life.  

And that G-Wiz? Today, there are more than two million zero-emission vehicles on Britain’s roads.⁷ Electric cars have gone from novelty to normal in less than two decades. 

When people talk about climate action, they often picture targets, graphs and technical reports. What I see is one of the biggest upgrades to Britain’s infrastructure and economy in modern history. 

Which brings me to the third date: 2040. For some people, 2040 sounds a long way off. But the child starting primary school this September will be in their early twenties. The decisions we make over the next few years will continue to shape their lives.

That is why I often say I want to be a minister for the future. Politics spends too much time talking about the next news cycle. My job is to think about the next generation. 

If you want proof that long-term planning works, you only need to look around Britain today

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By 2040, Britain could look fundamentally different. For example, under the Climate Change Committee’s balanced pathway, offshore wind capacity could reach 88GW and solar power 82GW.⁸ Around half of homes could be heated by heat pumps instead of gas boilers, protecting billpayers, reducing pollution and reducing our dependence on imported fossil fuels.

The exciting thing is what that means in practice. Cars that charge while you sleep. Homes heated without burning gas. Cleaner air for our children. Energy generated here in Britain rather than bought from abroad. And when global crises hit, families less exposed to the price shocks that have caused so much hardship in recent years. The prize is a country that is cleaner, more secure and more resilient. 

The real significance of Carbon Budget 7 is not the number in its title. It is that it asks the same question campaigners, MPs and our communities were asking back in 2008: what kind of future do we want to build?

References

1. Top Gear; Fail of the century #9: Reva G-Wiz. https://www.topgear.com/car-news/fail-century/fail-century-9-reva-g-wiz
2. Parliament UK; The Economics of Renewable Energy – Economic Affairs Committee. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200708/ldselect/ldeconaf/195/19506.htm
3. GOV.UK; Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES): renewable sources of energy. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/renewable-sources-of-energy-chapter-6-digest-of-united-kingdom-energy-statistics-dukes
4. RenewableUK. https://www.renewableuk.com/our-work/onshore-wind/
5. ScienceDirect; Towards improved solar energy justice: Exploring the complex inequities of household adoption of photovoltaic panels. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421522000933
6. Solar Power portal; UK surpassed two million solar installations in March, government figures show. https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/solar-installations/uk-surpassed-2-million-solar-installations-in-march-government-figures-show
7. Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit; 2 million EVs registered across UK: comment. https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2-million-evs-registered-across-uk-comment
8. Climate Change Committee; The Seventh Carbon Budget. https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/the-seventh-carbon-budget/