Politics Home Article | The Reform Wave Reaches Kemi Badenoch’s Backyard

Reform UK has claimed yet another Tory stronghold (Alamy)

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Not just because the Tories had controlled the council for 25 years. But also because the county is home to the constituencies of ten Conservative MPs, six of whom are shadow cabinet ministers – including Badenoch herself.

Former cabinet ministers James Cleverly and Priti Patel, both senior members of Badenoch’s shadow front bench, are also Essex MPs.

It was confirmed on Friday that Nigel Farage’s insurgent party won 53 of Essex County Council’s 78 seats, with the Conservatives dropping to 13 from the 52 they won in 2021.

Five years ago, the Tories were riding high in the opinion polls, with the then prime minister, Boris Johnson, enjoying what was widely described as a coronavirus vaccine bounce.

Now, however, the Conservatives are struggling to move on from their 2024 general election loss, with Badenoch’s steadily improving ratings seemingly failing to translate into an improved party brand.

The graphic below illustrates the scale of both the Reform rise and the Tory collapse.

In the run-up to 7 May, Conservatives in areas where they are electorally vulnerable, such as Essex, told PoliticsHome they were worried that the party was being complacent about this set of local elections.

The Tories have also lost control of Hampshire for the first time in almost 30 years, with the council now in no overall control.

Here, the party lost votes not just to Reform but to the Liberal Democrats, too, demonstrating that, like Labour, the Conservatives face electoral threats from different directions.

Farage’s party also took control of Suffolk County Council, overturning a 20-year run for the Conservatives. Reform took 41 seats on the council, with the Tories pushed down into single digits, returning just nine seats.

Speaking earlier today, Badenoch insisted that the results declared at the time showed that the Conservatives are “coming back” after their heavy defeat two years ago.

While the Tories are bleeding votes to both Reform and the Lib Dems nationwide, and are expected to suffer more pain in Scotland and Wales on Friday night, they have reasons for optimism in London, where, at the time of writing, they have won Westminster and gained eight seats in Wandsworth to push it into no overall control.

Defending Badenoch earlier this week, a senior Conservative MP acknowledged that 7 May was “going to be very bad” for the Tories, but said “there is nothing that can be done” given the situation the party is in, namely, still in the process of rebuilding public trust after being emphatically removed from office less than two years ago.

“I see this as something we have got to live through to get to the other side,” they told PoliticsHome.