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Politics Home | Labour And Greens Clash Over Betting Influence On Manchester By-Election Campaign
Hannah Spencer (Green Party) and Angeliki Stogia (Labour Party) candidates in the Gorton and Denton By-election (Alamy Live News)
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Exclusive: The Labour Party and the Greens have clashed over the influence of political betting on the eve of the Gorton and Denton by-election, triggering claims that the market should be regulated.
“It’s something that should be looked at,” a Labour Party source told PoliticsHome.
In response, a Green Party source said it was “utter desperation” from Keir Starmer’s party ahead of the high-stakes by-election.
The Gorton and Denton area in Greater Manchester has been represented by Labour for over a century, but a three-way battle has been underway for the seat since incumbent Andrew Gwynne resigned in January.
Labour and the Greens have been fighting to be seen as the party best-placed to stop Reform UK from winning the seat.
In the run-up to polling day on Thursday, bookmakers have tended to show the Green Party as the favourites to win the by-election, often with Labour trailing in third place behind Reform UK.
Although Labour odds have shortened in the last 24 hours following Keir Starmer’s Monday visit to meet activists on the local campaign, there are concerns in Labour that a small number of big bets can easily change the narrative around a high-profile by-election such as this one.
A small number of large bets on a particular party can result in its odds narrowing significantly, which, in turn, could influence how voters behave when they reach the ballot box, especially if they want to vote tactically to stop a certain candidate.
This morning, former Green Party leader Natalie Bennett posted on X: “Not in any way endorsing betting, but it is an independent source of information for any voters uncertain about which way to go to stop Reform.”
In a recent letter to Green leader Zack Polanski, Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell wrote: “Can I just ask how you feel ethically about sharing betting odds on the election which are based on a couple of very suspect big money bets?
“It doesn’t sit easily with me and I’m surprised by your association with big money election betting.”
A Labour source told PoliticsHome: “The small number of big money political bets we’ve seen in this campaign and their use in misinformation is of real concern.
“It’s an easy way for opponents to cook the books and has provided ammunition to our opponents that isn’t based on any real evidence of what is happening in this seat.
“It’s a straight fight between Labour and reform in Gorton and Denton, but dodgy bets could skew the campaign. It’s something that should be looked at.”
HuffPost reported earlier this month that a £90,000 bet had been placed on Green candidate Hannah Spencer winning the contest.
The Green Party has responded by accusing Labour of “playing politics” and “flapping around” ahead of the by-election result.
A Green Party spokesperson told PoliticsHome: “This is utter desperation. Labour are literally making stuff up when they know they’re losing. This is playing politics when they should be showing how they can make people’s lives better.
“If Labour want to talk about gambling, though, it’s a shame it’s taken a few betting markets that have put Labour behind the Greens for the Labour Party to finally call for additional regulation on gambling after the weak changes they have made to date.
“Until now, Labour has wanted to prioritise ‘growing the gambling industry’, which means policies that encourage more gambling. We welcome their latest U-turn, although it will probably upset their gambling industry donors.
“Labour are flapping around because they know the Greens are the only party that can beat Reform tomorrow.”
There is a feeling that the by-election could be very closely fought, potentially requiring a recount. An Opinium poll published on Tuesday put Labour and the Greens level on 28 per cent, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 27 per cent.
Reform’s hopes of victory in Gorton & Denton hinge on the progressive vote being evenly split between the other two parties.
The parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby in May last year was decided by just six votes. It saw Reform UK win its first MP in the North West.
At the Welsh Parliament’s Caerphilly by-election later in the year, in October, Plaid Cymru ended Labour’s 100-plus-year-long representation of the area. The governing party was pushed into third place, with Reform UK coming second.
