Carolyn Rowe, Ed Turner, Tobias Hofelich and Jannike Wachowiak look at the UK-German relationship since Brexit and consider how the two sides could work more closely together. 

The UK’s relationship with Germany is multifaceted, complex and deep. The UK was one of the ‘occupying powers’ after the Second World War. The stationing of British troops in Germany until 2020 created lifelong bonds between people, contributed to cultural exchange, and shaped German institutions. Footballing rivalries are epic, with the hugely successful 2006 World Cup a game-changer in many Brits’ perception of Germany. Yet Britain and Germany did not always see eye-to-eye on matters such as European integration and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, fearful of the potential power of a united Germany, was initially sceptical about German reunification. Despite their differences, the two countries were often allies in the European Union, frequently in agreement on questions about trade openness and competitiveness, thus functioning as a counterweight to French and southern European interests.

This changed – dramatically – with Brexit. There was some acrimony towards Germany in the run-up, with British politicians naively expecting then Chancellor Angela Merkel to intervene to give them a better deal in the pre-referendum renegotiation of the terms of membership. But far more profound was German consternation at the UK’s decision, being compared variously (in the many interviews we have conducted for a research project on the UK-German relationship) to a messy relationship break-up, and an act of self-harm. Precisely because of strong German ties to and affinity with the UK, the distress at Brexit was felt by German decision-makers, many of whom had lived and, importantly, studied in Britain, all the more acutely. Throughout the ‘Brexit period’ (from the referendum in 2016 through, at least, to the signing of the Windsor Framework in 2023), the UK’s difficult relationship with the EU had a profoundly negative impact upon bilateral relations with Germany. There was a sense that ‘perfidious Albion’ was seeking to divide and conquer EU member states by looking for bilateral dialogue with them rather than working through the European Commission; there were worries that if the UK got ‘too good’ a Brexit deal, other countries might follow it out of the EU, and European integration, a cornerstone of post-war (West) Germany’s DNA, would be fatally undermined. There was also a strong sense that the UK’s proposed terms of its future relationship were unreasonable, often decried as Rosinenpicken, or ‘cherry picking’. There was fury when the UK failed to honour its commitments in the Withdrawal Agreement and even owned up to a ‘specific and limited’ breach of international law, while Boris Johnson – about as different a politician to Angela Merkel as it was possible to be – was hugely disliked and mistrusted.

Things started to improve with the election Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister, and the signing of the Windsor Framework. The German government, led by the social democratic SPD, welcomed the election of a new Labour government under Sir Keir Starmer in 2024. Labour and SPD politicians had quietly got to know each other in the years before the general election, laying the groundwork for closer bilateral cooperation with security and defence being a point of focus. Starmer’s visit to Berlin, just weeks after his election, in August 2024, kicked off work on a new bilateral treaty. There was a hiatus after the German government collapsed later that year, but the Kensington Treaty was finally agreed in July 2025, promising many new forms of intergovernmental co-operation as well as concrete ‘lighthouse projects’ such as co-operation on defence industrial co-operation, North Sea energy, and irregular migration, and enshrining deeper commitments on defence which had been set out in the Trinity House UK-Germany defence agreement of October 2024.

On its own, though, the Kensington Treaty will achieve little, without ongoing commitment, especially political commitment, in the two countries. It will not be sufficient just to talk at moments of pressing crisis, and consistent investment of time is needed. The various ministerial dialogues set up under the Kensington and Trinity House Treaties will help, however, ministers and officials will have to prioritise areas of engagement, and the ghost of Brexit will continue to lurk in the shadows. For instance, Germany rapidly backed off a bilateral agreement on youth mobility when the EU decided to get involved.

The UK has to tread a careful line, never asking Germany to ‘choose’ between the UK and the EU, but still using bilateral channels to influence the EU, such as securing a more accommodating stance on potential UK membership of the SAFE programme. Narrowly transactional behaviour by the UK in the sense of ‘we give you security, you help us on trade’ will fail. But there are links between different strands of the relationship, with fluid boundaries between different aspects of security such as questions of defence procurement and deployment, shared economic projects and labour mobility. The UK should use these links to create a narrative of mutually beneficial relations and real partnership.

The importance of bilateral trade diplomacy should also not be underestimated: precisely because of the greater complexity in trading relationships in the post-Brexit world, active trade diplomacy is more important than ever, and the Department for Business and Trade needs sufficient capacity to deliver it.

So, what is needed to unleash the potential of the UK-German relationship?  Four things stand out. First, it must be understood in Britain that sound relations with the EU form the baseline for bilateral cooperation with Germany. Secondly, there needs to be consistency in political commitment, with full delivery on the Kensington Treaty. Thirdly, dialogue should not just be for ministers and senior officials, but also a wider cast of parliamentarians (recent visits to Berlin by select committees are an excellent start), and other public servants, for instance through secondments. And finally, civil society links are crucial: even though fewer UK schoolchildren are learning German, school and youth trips are more important than they were before Brexit, while sporting and cultural exchange is essential, especially where it reaches parts of society that would not normally be taking city breaks to Berlin or cruising down the Rhine. The commitments made in the Kensington Treaty are welcome. Now, these must be delivered on. In the post-Brexit world with a destabilised transatlantic relationship and war in Europe, strong UK-German relations are more important than ever before.

By Carolyn Rowe, Head of Department, Society & Politics at Aston University and Co-Director of the Aston Centre for Europe; Ed Turner, Reader in Politics at Aston University and Co-Director of the Aston Centre for Europe and acting chair of the International Association for the Study of German Politics; Tobias Hofelich, Research Associate, Aston University; and Jannike Wachowiak, Research Associate, UK in a Changing Europe.

This blog draws on a series of roundtables organised by the Aston Centre for Europe and UK in a Changing Europe in March 2026. The discussions were supported by funding from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD).

The elections on 7th May could turn out to be seismic in their political consequences. They’re a mix of parliamentary elections in both Scotland and Wales, as well as in local councils and mayoralties all over England. In Scotland the conventional wisdom is that the SNP will win with Reform UK pipping Labour into second place. In Wales, Labour is expected to lose power for the first time ever, with Reform UK pipping Labour into second place and Plaid Cymru topping the polls. In England the main speculation is how badly Labour will lose, and will there be a subsequent leadership crisis. Both Reform UK and the Greens are expected to make spectacular gains, the with Conservatives not only failing to make many gains, but losing yet more seats. The polls show the LibDems languishing, but they always outperform the polls in local elections, so they will make gains in both councillors and councils that they control.

Tomorrow night at 7pm, I have the LibDem leader Sir Ed Davey on the show for an hour long-phone-in. There could also be consequences for his leadership, if things don’t go to plan. Some of his MPs don’t see a strategy and complain that there is no strategy coming from the centre. He will point to the fact that they were all elected under his leadership. MPs never look back, though. They always look forward and their thoughts are dominated by the prospects of re-election. And the fact is, many of those who won their seats in the south and south-west know that many of them only won because Reform took so many votes away from the Conservatives, rather than because of any massive increase in the LibDem vote. Now in theory, history may repeat itself, but with our politics so fluid at the moment, LibDem MPs would rather have a positive offering to the electorate rather than repeat the stuntfest of 2024. Tune in tomorrow at 7!

Right-wing extremist – and antisemitic friend of Israel – Viktor Orbán has conceded the Hungarian general election. With two-thirds of the vote counted, his right-wing rival Péter Magyar is on course for what the BBC describes as a “landslide” victory.

Hungarian elections: two cheeks… etc etc

The sudden concession has thrown UK state-corporate media into a spin, with some announcing it and the landslide while others, at the time of writing, say it’s still being fought and is close:

As the careful reader will have noted, both men are right-wingers. Quite hard right-wingers. But while Orbán is EU-phobic, Magyar has promised closer ties with the union. However, Magyar is not expected to change Hungary’s defence of Israel against any stray EU anti-genocide measures in any significant way.

Great. Another rigged ‘two cheeks of the same arse’ result while Israel continues to slaughter and destabilise.

Featured image via the Canary

9 min read24 min

In an interview with PoliticsHome ahead of the 7 May local elections, Davey revealed that he had a “long chat” with the former US secretary of state when she spoke at a business reception in the capital late last year.

“We talked about how we need to fight Reform in the way they need to fight Donald Trump, and she gave me some choice advice, which I’m not going to repeat because that would be unfair on her,” he said.

When pressed, he added: “She said you have to be very strong and stand up to bullies and don’t cave in and cosy up to them. She didn’t say she was criticising Keir Starmer, but I think the approach we [the Lib Dems] have taken, and the approach that someone like the Liberal Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, has taken, is the sort of approach she will endorse.”

He described Clinton as “very friendly and very warm”: “You could tell that she realised that we had shared values.”

Davey sat down with PoliticsHome a month out from voters going to the polls for highly-anticipated elections in Scotland, Wales and council areas across England. 

Ahead of those elections, the Lib Dems have sought to frame themselves as part of the broader pushback against the rise of the populist right, taking strong positions against Trump and his actions in Iran, and calling on King Charles and Queen Camilla’s planned visit to the US to be cancelled over the US president’s treatment of the UK. 

Speaking at the party’s local election campaign launch in Birmingham on Friday, Davey accused Nigel Farage’s Reform of “importing the divisive, nasty politics of Donald Trump into the UK”, adding: “This does not sit well with British values.”

The Lib Dem leader said he hopes that the Democratic Party defeats the Republicans in the US midterm elections in November, and while he joked that his party was “pretty busy in the UK at the moment”, he said they do have a “good relationship with a lot of Democrats”.

“We’ve helped Democrat politicians in the past,” he said.

“They have a good relationship with our party. We had a good relationship with a few Republicans, but I’m afraid lots of Republicans from that great party have now backed the MAGA movement and now support Donald Trump and some of his nasty, divisive, damaging policies.”

As well as Canadian Prime Minister Carney, Davey praised the “strong leadership” of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who on Wednesday issued a thinly veiled swipe at the Trump administration by saying Spain “will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket”.

With Trump continuing to be a deeply unpopular figure in the UK, Davey hopes that his party’s opposition to the US president will boost Lib Dem prospects on 7 May.

Last month, The Spectator obtained internal plans revealing a belief among Lib Dem strategists that their position on the Iran war will pay dividends at those elections, with a memo reading: “For the first time since the Iraq war… we have a chance to turn a distinctive and principled Liberal Democrat position on foreign affairs into significant election gains.”

However, despite leading the Liberal Democrats to their best general election result two years ago, Davey is heading next month’s locals under pressure from restless Lib Dem MPs who complain that the party is drifting and failing to capitalise on the 2024 success.

The polls are the polls, but the elections are the elections

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Most opinion polls show that the Lib Dems have hovered around 12 per cent of the national vote since the 2024 general election, with no significant increase.

Last month, PoliticsHome reported concern within the party that a handful of Lib Dem MPs could be tempted to join Zack Polanski’s surging Greens.

“I’m restless like they are… I share their restlessness,” Davey told PoliticsHome, while stressing that his MPs and the party “work really well together”.

However, in a bid to face down his critics, the Lib Dem leader pointed to his electoral record.

“The polls are the polls, but the elections are the elections,” he told PoliticsHome.

“Winning elections is what we’ve done under my leadership. If we make net gains in May, it will be the eighth year in a row we’ve made net gains, the sixth under my leadership. It’s never happened before. That’s a continual increase, year on year.

“This year we could well beat Labour and the Tories for the number of councillors we elect for the second year in a row, and it’s never happened previously.”

He insisted that the Lib Dems are “still the most united parliamentary party” despite recent negative briefings.

“Labour could have a leadership election after May, the Tories could. They’re certainly losing MPs to Reform, and then Reform is losing those MPs on the other side. We haven’t, we won’t, and we will work really well together. I am determined to lead us into the next election and show that we have the ideas for our country,” he said.

One complaint among uneasy Lib Dems is that the party currently lacks a clear identity and target audience, having spent recent years focusing its electoral strategy on former Conservative voters in the south of England.

According to Davey, the party now has an opportunity to pick up former Green supporters who care deeply about the environment but are not as left-wing as the party’s self-described eco-populist leader, Zack Polanski.

“You’re going to see a fracturing of the Green Party in the sense that there’s a lot of the former Greens before this Corbynista push, who were much more middle of the road,” he said. 

“Their focus was on the environment… The stuff that they [the Greens] are now talking about, they don’t really buy… they don’t like what they’re seeing.”

The discussion heading into 7 May has been dominated by the rise of the Greens and Reform, and their threat to the historic two-party dominance of Labour and the Conservatives.

However, the Lib Dems are hopeful of making gains across the country next month, including in East and West Surrey, Hampshire, Portsmouth, and some areas in the north of England, such as Stockport and Newcastle. 

Asked what distinct message the Lib Dems are offering to voters, Davey told PoliticsHome they were positioning themselves as “local champions” who will fix church roofs – a deliberate echo of Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who mockingly described a Lib Dem “somebody who is good at fixing their church roof” last year.

At the campaign launch on Friday, PoliticsHome spoke to Lib Dem councillors and candidates who felt that while it was unlikely they – or any party – would win outright control of Birmingham Council, the Lib Dems could be left in a good position to play a “leading role” in the administration after the elections.

The question of who Davey would be prepared to work with could be one he faces increasingly in the future, as the fragmentation of UK politics into a multi-party system shows no signs of going away.

Davey was clear that his party has ruled out working with Reform, and the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, Alex Cole-Hamilton, has ruled out entering a coalition with the Scottish National Party (SNP).

However, the party has not ruled out a coalition with Labour, the Green Party, independent candidates, or Plaid Cymru in Wales. Jane Dodds, the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats and the only Lib Dem member of the Senedd, said this week that the Lib Dems would only work with Plaid Cymru if they “confirm that they will not spend a penny of government money on independence”.

Asked whether his party might enter an agreement with the Welsh nationalist party, Davey said he had not spoken to Dodds about it yet.

“I’d be really surprised, given our opposition to independence,” he said.

“You would have to speak to Alex Cole-Hamilton and Jane Dodds, because they will run those negotiations. They’re devolved administrations.”

Liberal Democrat MP Roz Savage told The House magazine in March that the party “needs a plan” for a coalition scenario after the next general election, having been “badly burned” by their experience sharing power with David Cameron’s Conservatives.

Asked whether any resulting coalitions from the May elections could provide test cases for where Lib Dems could work with other parties after a general election, Davey said: “Good question, but I am very focused on the local elections and the next general election, maximising Liberal Democrat victories.”

The challenge for Davey and his party, however, is that the 7 May elections are so unpredictable that they are struggling to predict where they might make the strongest gains.

“It’s complicated, because you’ve got the two old parties’ votes collapsing,” the former cabinet minister said.

“Where we’re strong, we’re big beneficiaries of that, but then there’s Reform coming in… And so we’re finding it quite difficult to read the canvassing, because the Reform vote is a little bit shy.”

Davey suggested the Lib Dems could cause “a bit of a surprise” in Birmingham, pointing to the fact that his party are fielding an expanded list of 101 candidates in the city and describing local campaigners as having “really gone for it”.

In the bid for attention in an increasingly fragmented political landscape, Davey intends to continue carrying out publicity stunts for the cameras. Most recently, he was pictured playing chess with Hull City Council leader Mike Ross at the Hull campaign launch last week.

Davey – similarly to Chancellor Rachel Reeves – played chess competitively until he was about 12 years old, though he said he would “not put myself up as a great chess player” anymore. 

“Playing the long game, that’s the key thing in chess,” he said. 

“You play all your moves, you don’t get worried if you make a sacrifice here, you work out where you’re going to go.”

The YouTube platform has (again) removed the account of Explosive Media, the makers of Iran’s ‘Lego’-style and intensely viral propaganda videos mocking Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and their failures.

Explosive Media announced the ban on X:

The group’s accounts on X, UpScrolled, Instagram and other platforms are so far unaffected. Explosive Media marked the occasion by releasing a new video, Loser 2 — described as a ‘banger’ — mocking Trump’s endless lies, his loss to Iran in his and Israel’s illegal war and his guilt in the crimes of serial child-rapist and Israeli spy Jeffrey Epstein. It also directly refers to Trump being behind the ban:

Iranians just published the new very banger LEGO AI movie that Trump almost wants to put onto agreement list to stop them.

Do whatever you need to do but don’t let Trump watch this 😭🤣😂 pic.twitter.com/y66Mr7Yadk

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— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) April 11, 2026

Featured image via the Canary