Poll puts Burnham streets ahead of any leadership challenger, quandary for Greens

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has confirmed he intends to stand in the Makerfield by-election. The by-election has been triggered by disgraced ‘Labour Together’ right-winger Josh Simons’s decision to step down — specifically to let Burnham stand. If he wins, he will be eligible to stand for election as Labour party leader – and therefore as prime minister. Remarkably, it seems Labour’s hard-right party machine isn’t going to block him as it did, disastrously for Labour, in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

While it would doubtless help expose the bankruptcy of Starmerism exposed and bring Starmer down, this also creates a quandary for the Greens and other parties.

Burnham is far from ideal. He showed cowardice on Labour’s plans, under Ed Miliband, to intensify the Tories’ attacks on benefit claimants. The decision guaranteed Jeremy Corbyn would win the 2015 leadership election. He voted for Tony Blair’s illegal Iraq war, has supported Israel and pushed NHS privatisation along. His record was summarised by Your Party MP Zarah Sultana:

The Greens agree. But while Burnham is no ‘radical alternative’, he is night and day against any rival in the leadership contest. If nothing else, he actually has a personality. And it seems Labour members agree. A poll of members by Survation found that Burnham is a country mile ahead of any potential candidate even remotely in the frame to stand against him if he wins the by-election.

Burnham vs Starmer

In fact, while awful incumbent Keir Starmer would either beat or only lose narrowly to other rivals, Burnham would crush him:

But the ‘if’ of the by-election is a big one. Simons’s vote share in Makerfield in 2024 was only around a thousand votes ahead of the combined Tory-Reform vote. With Labour’s popularity in the sewers after two years of Starmer government, it’s not certain — maybe not even likely — that Burnham will win it for Labour.

This is even more so given that Reform is likely to throw everything at the seat. Especially because its management — if it has any political nous at all — will want to make sure Labour can only be led by Starmer or someone every bit as drab and dire in the period up to the next general election. The Tories, too, might well make a pact with Reform for the same reason to avoid splitting the racist vote.

This poses a quandary for the Greens, particularly, and other parties. The Greens might decline to stand in the by-election in the hope that a Burnham-led Labour does less to usher in Farage’s fascists. Standing and preventing a Burnham win would be presented as the Greens giving Farage and co a helping hand.

But so might not standing. The Greens’ narrative, after Gorton, is justifiably that they and not Labour are the UK’s hope of beating the fascists. Standing down would disrupt that message. It would also help Labour get the boost of a new leader who is not obviously aligned with, and far more personable than, the current regime and raise the prospects of a divided anti-fascist vote in 2029 (or earlier).

And the waters of that choice are muddied even further by how Burnham has been able — apparently — to put himself up for Makerfield. Hard-right, pro-Israel antisemitism smearer Simons’s resignation may have opened the door for Burnham, but there is not a snowflake in hell’s chance that the deal doesn’t come with huge strings attached. Not so much strings, but miles of bunting festooned with Israel flags. If Burnham has made a ‘deal with the devil’ to get his shot, and honours it, that’s a disaster with huge consequences for freedom and human rights in the UK, Palestine and a lot of other places.

Featured image via the Canary

By Skwawkbox

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