Reform To Win Fewer Seats Than Labour Or Tories

Reform UK are on course to win fewer seats than both Labour and the Tories at the next general election, according to a new mega poll.

The YouGov study found that Nigel Farage’s party would end up with 123 MPs if an election were held now.

Although that is well up on the eight they currently have, it is well down on the 311 seats a similar poll forecast they would get a year ago.

Reform MPs Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman – who defected from the Tories – would lose their seats to their former party.

Labour would be the largest party on 241 seats – well down on the 403 they currently have – with the Tories second on 130.

The findings of the MRP poll – which saw 14,000 people surveyed to give a seat-by-seat breakdown – suggest the UK is heading for a hung parliament, with every party well short of the 326 seats needed for a majority.

That suggests Andy Burnham would be forced to do a deal with the Lib Dems, who are forecast to stay on 71 MPs elected, to remain in power.

Elsewhere, the poll says the Greens would see their number of MPs increase to 8, while the SNP would go from 8 MPs to 48.

The poll’s findings are further confirmation of Reform’s fall in popularity in recent months, and of the increase in support enjoyed by Labour since Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as leader and PM.

A separate poll by the More in Common think-tank on Wednesday put Reform behind the Tories and Labour.

Data released by YouGov also found that anti-Reform tactical voting is also likely to scupper his hopes of becoming PM.

The poll of more than 6,000 voters found that in a seat with only a Labour or Reform candidate, 41% would back Burnham’s party, with only 26% backing Farage’s.

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