Politics

Rumours swirl of an early election if Burnham wins

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Andy Burnham is running to become the MP for Makerfield, Wigan. As everyone knows, if Burnham wins, he’ll challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership, becoming the PM if he succeeds. Given that Labour has a huge majority and the party doesn’t have to call an election until 2029, most assume he won’t go to the polls early. If rumours are to be believed, however, he might be eyeing one up:

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Wargaming

The latest rumours comes from the Sun, and as such have to be taken with a pinch of salt. At the same time, Labour politicians love talking to the Sun despite its long and rancid history, so the source doesn’t necessarily discount the veracity.

According to the Murdoch rag, a senior Labour source said:

Andy considering an early general election. They are wargaming it.

But Labour MPs would absolutely hate it. They are worried about losing their seats.

If Andy becomes PM I expect he will have to promise the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party) that he will not call a snap election.

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They will want him to sign the pledge in blood.

Regardless of the finer details, this anonymous quote allowed the Sun to run a story claiming Burnham wants an early election. This is convenient for Burnham’s opponents, because they’re claiming Burnham’s dastardly plan is to — you guessed it — call an early election:

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For the past year, Reform’s war cry has been ‘Starmer out now’. This has proven popular with the public — a public which understands the quickest way to get Starmer out is to get Burnham in. The problem for Reform politicians is that Burnham would likely be a tougher opponent, so now they have to work to keep Starmer in without admitting that’s what they’re doing.

Given this, it’s entirely possible one of Starmer’s allies briefed these rumours to hurt Burnham’s chances. Burnham himself, meanwhile, seems to have dismissed the rumours:

At the same time, it’s not entirely out of the realms of possibility that Burnham might actually want an early election. Also, it wouldn’t be the first time Burnham went back on his word:

Why would Burnham want to?

Over the past decade, we’ve had two early elections:

  • Theresa May: Despite having a majority, May called an election in 2017 hoping to take advantage of Jeremy Corbyn’s unpopularity. In the end, Corbyn’s Labour realised the largest vote share increase since 1945, with May demoted to a minority government as a result.
  • Boris Johnson: Johnson inherited May’s minority government, which meant he couldn’t do much of anything. In 2017, Brexit wasn’t an issue, because both parties committed to following through on it. By 2019, however, Keir Starmer had maneuvered Labour into backing a second referendum, which meant the 2019 election itself became a second referendum itself. This nuked Labour’s chances, and produced a large majority for Boris Johnson (although not as large as the one won by Starmer in 2024).

Clearly, calling an early election would be a risky move; especially when current polling looks like this:

Although Burnham would get a boost in the polls when compared to Starmer, it’s far from a guarantee that he’d win:

There is some reason to suspect Burnham might want to go to the polls early, however.

Rudderless

When it comes to big policies like proportional representation, Burnham has said Labour needs put them in a general manifesto before enacting them. The King in the North also doesn’t seem to have a concrete plan for office, as we’ve reported:

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If Labour call a general election, the party will have to produce a manifesto. As the Manchester Mill reported, Burnham is a lot happier being the face of the operation than the ideological engine — i.e. he’d no doubt love for the wonks to go off and draft a plan for him. The question is which side of Labour would be in charge of this manifesto — the rotten side or the really fucking rotten side.

Burnham movement

As Stats for Lefties and Philip Proudfoot note, the direction of travel for Burnham right now is rightwards:

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Whether Burnham calls an election or not, we need to make it very clear this country will not tolerate more of the same. And if he runs an election with a manifesto that’s Starmerism 2.0, we will fight against it tooth and nail.

Featured image via Christopher Furlong (Getty Images) / Christopher Furlong (Getty Images)

By Willem Moore

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