Scarlett Maguire: Trump is now underwater on immigration. What can UK politicians learn from this?

Scarlett Maguire is a pollster, and founder of Merlin Strategy.

Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election promising improvements to ordinary American’s cost of living and tough action on the border.

Even with public opinion split aggressively on partisan lines, there was still relative optimism about what he could achieve on those two key issues for the American public, and he began his second term in the White House with positive approval ratings on both issues.

However, American voters’ attitudes towards the controversial president have cooled significantly since then, and he has found himself going from positive territory to 12 points underwater on the issue of immigration, with some pollsters recording a net 29 negative swing. 

American voters now see Trump’s handling of immigration more negatively than positively, despite the fact that in many senses he has delivered on his election promises of ‘mass deportations’ and tighter control on the Southern Border. Border crossings are at historic lows, with the U.S. Border Patrol recorded roughly 86,000 attempted illegal crossings at the Southern border from February 2025-2026, compared to 956,000 the previous year.

ICE under Trump has deported far fewer than the 3 million people deported under Barack Obama, and there is no doubt that ordinary Americans wanted to see firm and decisive action when it came to tackling immigration and the Southern border, with 66 per cent supporting deportations of illegal immigrants at the beginning of 2025. However, a majority (53 per cent) now think that the Trump administration is doing ‘too much’ on deportations, compared to 10 per cent who say too little and 36 per cent who say the right amount. Democrats overwhelmingly feel that there has been too much (86 per cent) but in a more worrying sign for the administration 20 per cent of Republicans feel the same way, with Hispanic Republicans (a crucial part of Trump’s 2024 coalition) much more likely to agree (47 per cent).

Whilst this unease in public opinion may not be unsurprising after the fatal shooting of two US citizens during conflicts between protesters and law enforcement officers,  it does seem to be having significant political impact. Trump himself has even begun an uncharacteristic climb-down, agreeing to wind down the ICE operations in Minnesota and pledged an end to unwanted ICE surges.

Despite all this, it would be a mistake for Democrats to interpret these changes in public opinion as signs of an appetite for a dramatically more progressive immigration system. Republicans are still more trusted on the issue overall, and just 17 per cent of voters oppose deportations full stop. Many Americans have responded badly to an appearance and tone from the administration more than they have substantially changed their views on illegal migration.

What does this mean for politicians in the UK wishing to draw lessons from the US?

In this country, immigration regularly tops voters’ most important issues, jostling with the cost of living for top spot in the public’s priorities, especially amongst Conservative and Reform voters. Views of the British public towards immigration are actually harsher than those across the Atlantic. They are more likely to support deportations and less likely to think that diversity strengthens the society. Brits support deporting those who are here illegally by more than a 3-1 margin, and by a nearly 2-1 margin support a large decrease in the number of new migrants allowed to the country (this includes both legal and illegal), and more than twice as many think that immigration in the past 10 years has been bad for the country than good.

That being said, as we have seen in America, the British public are very sensitive to the tone and rhetoric of the debate. Whilst the median voter may now be in favour of deportations and hostile to the idea of increased migration, they are also wary of tone that appears too inflammatory and divisive.

At the end of last year, I conducted 20 hours of focus groups with members of the public about a wide range of issues, including immigration. Voters across the left and right are unhappy with the current migration system, however swing voters drawn from the centre and conservatives also respond badly to language on the subject that feels too ‘right-wing’ or ‘anti-immigration’ at the same time as supporting drastic changes to the migration system and huge reductions to numbers of both legal and illegal migrants. Many expressed concerns that the current levels of migration are felt to be unsustainable and feel that politicians have been unfairly prioritising concerns of migrants over British Citizens. However, many of these same voters also wanted to go out of their way to praise migrants who do contribute as ‘hard workers’ often in contrast to parts of the British population they feel are ‘too lazy’ to get a job. Many voters still up for grabs at the next election are looking for politicians to sound fair as well as tough.

Trump has had a talent for causing the world’s attention economy to revolve around his axis, and his second term in power has been no different. Voters, especially those on social media, frequently say they remember seeing more stories from the US than stories from home. As a consequence, Trump has an outsized importance on British voters’ psyche, and as the past 14 months have progressed much of the public appear increasingly wary of anything that seems to too closely mimic Trump’s America (although he still garners praise from many of his critics for ‘getting things done’.) Many considering Reform, especially women, are in fact alienated by a perception that they may be too close to MAGA, “I think he cosies up to Trump” “I think he and his party are starting to speak a lot of sense and attack areas that are of concern to the country. But then there is a little bit of nervousness at the same time, because he is a little bit intense… just a bit Trump-esque”.

As such, promises of an ‘ICE-style’ deportation agency in the UK risks landing badly with voters, who may respond well to the substance at the same time as poorly to the style.

However, it would be wrong for more liberally minded politicians to interpret voters’ concerns about optics and rhetoric as an indication of more progressive views.

There is, if anything, a stronger desire amongst the British electorate for significant changes to the migration system than there is in the US (which is a large part of the reason for Reform’s overwhelming lead when it comes to which party would be best to handle it), at the same time as significantly less appetite for an approach that appears too inflammatory for the sake of it.