Scotland pushes for independence vote, Westminster refuses

On 26 May, Scotland’s parliament voted for the powers to hold an independence referendum, while Downing Street has rejected the request.

A “golden opportunity” that would “put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands,” is how SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney described independence.

Members of the Scottish parliament, MSPs, agreed on the second referendum by a strong margin. The motion passing 72 votes to 55. Support from the Scottish Greens gave the SNP enough votes to defeat opposition from the unholy London-centric alliance between Labour, Reform, Tories and Lib-Dems. Keir Starmer said he wouldn’t give Scots what they want.

Scotland and the promise of devolution

On 7 May the SNP secured their fifth consecutive election win which — for many Scots — reinforces a pro-independence mandate. Speaking after this week’s vote, Swinney emphasised that Holyrood had:

clearly expressed its view that Scotland should have the powers to arrange an orderly referendum on independence.

But in 2022 the British Supreme Court ruled that any future referendum could only be held with the consent of the UK Government. No consent has been granted, nor does it appear likely.

One Downing Street spokesperson said this week that the British Government neither supports independence, or another referendum.

Speaking to the Canary in early May, now-elected Greens noted that this was not the first time a Scottish constitutional matter has been vetoed a MSPs. Kate Nevens and Q Manivannan pointed to a 2021 child rights motion, blocked when it sought to adopt a UN resolution. This set a precedent for UK courts to slap-down similar efforts.

Scottish voters, particularly pro-independence voters, often point out that England pushed Brexit onto Scotland despite an overwhelming 62% pro-EU majority, north of the border. Some even believe that Brexit may have swayed the independence vote had it happened before the referendum.

This is a bitter point for many given that the ‘Better Together’ — pro-union, Labour- and Tory-led — campaign often touted EU membership as a key reason to remain in the UK. That was dashed just two years later.

Scotland is not alone in their democratic deficit. Wales too, now governed for the first time by pro-independence Plaid Cyrmu, also lacks constitutional means for secession.

However, the North of Ireland retains the Good Friday constitutional right to many referenda when it decides. Ruled by for the first time by anti-unionists Sinn Fein since 2022, they arguably have the strongest hand.

Whether a formal coalition — a union against the Union — will form across Celtic nations remains possible.

Untied Kingdom: anti-unionist parties take power across the Celtic nations

How popular is independence?

At the original Scottish independence referendum in 2014, around 55% of voters opposed independence.

That percentage hovered around there since, although pro-‘yes’ reportedly peaked at 53% in mid-2020 and again in late 2022. Another polling scheme suggests that 2019–2021 saw sustained pro-independence support, hovering between 51-53%, but more recently this dropped.

Pro-independence politicians from the SNP and Scottish Greens suggested to the Canary a major factor in pro-independence sentiment slipping away. They blame an overall material impoverishment caused by the UK’s sustained cost-of-living crisis. Now-elected SNP MSP Kate Campbell, for instance, said:

People are focused on bread-and-butter issues right now. …

Housing, the cost-of-living, making sure people are just surviving and getting through at the moment — that has to be the priority for government.

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However, indy support has not dropped below 43% since 2014, meaning that only the unionist camp shrank over time. Pro-unionists consistently hold less strong beliefs than pro-independence counterparts.

Demographic changes since 2014 might suggest that the figure could be much lower now, given that — like Brexit — age demographics reflected voter opinion. Younger Scots largely supported the pro-independence vote and still do, with clear pro-indy leanings for all Scots under 50.

Featured image via the Canary

By Cameron Baillie

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