Shadow Cabinet League Table: Badenoch extends her lead, Timothy holds second

Parliament is in recess, and MPs are once again scattered across the country, back in their constituencies. In North West Essex, Kemi Badenoch will be pleased: once again, she tops ConservativeHome’s Shadow Cabinet League Table, with a net satisfaction rating of +82.1 (up 0.5 points).

It is the third Shadow Cabinet League Table in a row in which she has come first. The first time she reached pole position was shortly before Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform UK. It underlines the marked shift from her earlier performances in ConservativeHome’s polling, when there were times that she was languishing on zero.

But it also reflects the way her personal polling has improved dramatically in recent months. Badenoch is now the most popular of all the party leaders. According to the think tank More in Common, the Tory leader’s net approval rating has risen to -9. That may not sound like much, but it puts her ahead of the pack. Sir Keir Starmer is on -42, while Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski are both on -16, with Ed Davey on -11.

Behind Badenoch in ConservativeHome’s league table is shadow justice secretary Nick Timothy (+67.6), who retains second place since joining the shadow cabinet. He has recently been at the centre of controversy after describing a Ramadan prayer event in Trafalgar Square as “an act of domination” from an “Islamist playbook”.

The Tory leader rowed in behind him, but some fellow Conservative MPs – including some in the shadow cabinet and the whips’ office – have privately raised concerns about Timothy’s comments and his subsequent doubling down, which one senior Tory described as “extremely unhelpful”. But it has done nothing to dent his standing with Conservative members.

This Shadow Cabinet poll was conducted after Timothy’s remarks, and he still sits above all his shadow cabinet colleagues bar the Tory leader herself. In fact, he has increased his rating from +56.9 to +67.6.

The rest of the top five is unchanged from our last league table: shadow chancellor Mel Stride remains in third (+60.7), followed by shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho (+56.3) and shadow home secretary Chris Philp (+56.2). Despite recent rumours – including in the Mail on Sunday – of a forthcoming reshuffle that would move Stride and Philp, both have held their positions since our last Conservative Home poll.

Another name that has surfaced in reports of a shadow cabinet refresh is shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel, who finds herself near the other end of the table, third from bottom on +16.6 — ahead only of shadow health secretary Stuart Andrew (+14.7) and shadow transport secretary Richard Holden (+10.4), who remains rooted to the foot.

Talk of a reshuffle seemed to lose some of its sheen as Parliament headed into recess. But I understand that, at senior levels within CCHQ, discussions are still ongoing about using a refresh as part of a broader plan to get the Conservative Party back on the front foot after the local elections.

And speaking of those elections: in the run-up to the Scottish and Welsh contests in May, things are not looking especially rosy for either Tory leader. In Scotland, Russell Findlay has slipped from +17 to +15.2 since our last survey. In Wales, Darren Millar is on +7.4, down only fractionally from +7.5. Still, the polls that matter are the ones coming next month.

The post Shadow Cabinet League Table: Badenoch extends her lead, Timothy holds second appeared first on Conservative Home.

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