Politics
Shapiro needs big policy wins for a 2028 run. He’s gunning for a Democratic trifecta to achieve them.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has made his ability to navigate a sharply divided Legislature a core part of his national sales pitch. But as 2028 approaches, what he really wants is a Democratic trifecta in Harrisburg.
Shapiro helped Democrats flip the state House in 2022 when he won the governor’s mansion. But the Republican-controlled Senate has been his Achilles’ heel since, stymieing his attempts to pass core Democratic policies like raising one of the lowest state minimum wages in the country. And the split Legislature left Shapiro mired in a monthslong budget standoff last year that held up billions of dollars in state funding for counties, schools and nonprofits.
Now, Shapiro is leading the charge to help Democrats wrest back the chamber from Republican control by a slim 27-23 majority and expand their single-seat majority in the House — part of an aggressive down-ballot push the governor is undertaking alongside his own reelection bid.
Shapiro has repeatedly voiced his desire to win unified control of the commonwealth both in private conversations with donors and in public. He’s touted what he could do with it — outlining a policy agenda rooted in increasing affordability that includes raising the state’s minimum wage and boosting energy production, including through renewables.
When asked his second-term goals and whether he needs unified Democratic control to achieve them, the governor said his record proves “I can bring the Republicans and Democrats together to get stuff done.”
“There are some things, though, that the Republican Senate has blocked me on that I would like us to be able to get done,” he said at an event in Washington last week. “And certainly, having a trifecta would allow me to do that.”
During his state budget address Tuesday, Shapiro unloaded on Senate Republicans who’ve stood in the way of his priorities, saying they’ve “refused to act” on raising wages and needling them to “stop making excuses” on advancing his energy plans. His voice ringing with emotion, he accused them of “cowering to … special interests” and “tying justice for abused kids to your pet political projects” over stalling enhanced protections for sexual abuse victims.
Shapiro’s effort to secure unified control of Harrisburg will serve as a critical test of his coattails in the nation’s largest swing state. And it’s a prerequisite for him to be able to score some big-ticket liberal policy wins he can brag about on a 2028 presidential primary stage that could be jam-packed with governors who already have their own achievements to tout.
“If he can add to the appeal he already has with things like a higher minimum wage, with other pieces of the puzzle that state government can do to make things more affordable, it just gives his candidacy and his message that extra spark that is missing right now,” said longtime Democratic strategist Pete Giangreco, who worked on Barack Obama’s and Amy Klobuchar’s presidential campaigns but is not working for any likely 2028 contenders.
But Pennsylvania Democrats haven’t had a trifecta in three decades. And they face a narrow path to achieving it even in a year when national Democrats are bullish on a blue wave.
Just half the Pennsylvania Senate is on the ballot this year, and operatives on both sides say the battlefield is even smaller, pointing to a handful of districts in the Philadelphia suburbs through the Lehigh Valley and more rural swaths of the state. Prognosticators say the Pennsylvania Senate “leans Republican.”
“If you look at the Republican map on who needs to be defeated, it’s a lot of more rural, red areas,” said Pennsylvania-based GOP consultant Josh Novotney. “Nothing’s impossible in such a bad year for Republicans. But it’s going to be tough.”
But Keystone State Democrats are emboldened by last year’s elections. The party swept judicial retention races for the state’s highest court and flipped a state Senate seat during a special election in a district Democrats said President Donald Trump carried by 15 percentage points in 2024. They’re encouraged by Democratic wins and overperformances across the country over the past year.
And, top Democrats say, they have Shapiro.
The governor remains highly popular, with an approval rating that’s cracked 60 percent in some surveys. He’s a fundraising juggernaut who has amassed a $30 million war chest to unload against likely GOP rival Stacy Garrity, the state treasurer, who raised just a fraction of that amount.
Democrats rode to power in the Pennsylvania House in 2022 on what one top lawmaker described as “Shapiro’s landslide coattails,” and they credit the governor for helping them hold their razor-thin majority in 2024, even as Trump won Pennsylvania and Democrats lost every statewide election.
“He is a huge part of the reason we have the majority. He’s a huge part of the reason that we were able to hold the majority in 2024,” said state Rep. Mike Schlossberg, the House majority whip. “I have no doubt he will lean in very, very heavily to making sure that we not only expand our majority in the House, but hopefully take control of the Senate — something that’s realistically in play for the first time probably in my entire career.”
Shapiro poured $1.25 million into the Pennsylvania House Democrats’ campaign committee in 2024 and helped raise another $1 million toward defending their majority that year. He also donated $250,000 to state Senate Democrats’ campaign committee. And he cut ads and hit the campaign trail in key legislative districts.
Last year, Shapiro gave the state party $250,000 to fund infrastructure improvements heading into the midterms, with a promise of more to come. His political team is in “regular communication” with Pennsylvania Democrats’ campaign arms, said state Sen. Vincent Hughes, a Philadelphia Democrat who chairs the party’s Senate campaign committee.
The governor’s political operation declined to share an estimate of how much Shapiro plans to spend down-ticket this year, or where he plans to campaign. Manuel Bonder, a spokesperson for Shapiro, said the governor “has a long track record of working to elect Democrats up and down the ballot” and will “continue to focus on” that alongside his reelection bid.
Shapiro and his allies have repeatedly lamented Republican roadblocks to an agenda that includes raising wages, boosting housing and energy production and securing sustainable funding for public transportation. House Speaker Joanna McClinton, a Philadelphia Democrat, accused the GOP of “political gamesmanship” in an interview, claiming the opposition is trying to “keep down the productivity” to hurt Shapiro and state Democrats in 2026 and beyond.
Senate Republican leaders signaled more friction to come as they fired back on several fronts after Shapiro’s speech Tuesday, skewering his plan to overhaul the state’s energy sector, accusing him of being “more interested in the political talking point” on hiking wages to $15 an hour (while indicating they’re open to compromise) and saying there are “different paths” to helping victims of abuse.
As 2028 looms, Democratic legislative leaders and political strategists acknowledged the potential political benefit of a trifecta for Shapiro, who could get a boost from both turning a purple state blue and passing policies that could pad a potential presidential platform.
“If he can help us win the trifecta, and then use it to actually govern and get good results — or as he likes to say, ‘get shit done’ — that looks really good at the national level,” Schlossberg said.