Starmer’s Job Is Hanging In The Balance. What Might Happen Next?

Keir Starmer’s premiership is hanging by a thread following Labour’s disastrous performance in the local elections.

A growing body of MPs are calling for the prime minister to resign, less than two years into the role, but Starmer is digging in.

With no clear successor putting their head above the parapet for the mutinous party to rally behind, MPs are in limbo.

So what might happen next? Here’s what you need to know.

Starmer became prime minister in July 2024 after Labour won a landslide victory in the general election.

But within weeks, his government was plunged into crisis by the decision to scrap winter fuel payments for 10 million pensioners and a row over free clothes and hospitality accepted by Starmer and other senior Labour figures.

A series of messy U-turns on things like the two-child benefit cap, digital ID and the farmers’ inheritance tax also led to the prime minister’s approval rating plummeting.

The controversy over his decision to make Peter Mandelson the UK’s ambassador to Washington also helped push the PM’s unpopularity to new depths.

In Labour’s biggest electoral test since the 2024 election last week, voters overwhelmingly rejected the party in England, Scotland and Wales – triggering further anger towards the PM from the party’s MPs.

More than 50 of then have called on Starmer to stand down following the devastating bloodbath.

It’s incredibly hard to predict exactly what happens next, especially Labour Party makes it difficult to oust the party’s leader.

But here are the options MPs are considering, as of Monday…

Under the party’s rules, a challenger needs the backing of at least 20% of Labour MPs to trigger a leadership contest. That currently works out to 81 MPs.

Even then, the sitting leader would automatically be put on the ballot paper.

Former Foreign Office minister Catherine West stunned Westminster on Saturday by announcing she would challenge the PM if the cabinet did not choose someone to replace Starmer.

But by Monday she had backed down, instead calling for MPs to sign a letter urging Starmer to set out a timetable to allow him to be replaced by September.

Among others thought to be weighing up a leadership bid are former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and health secretary Wes Streeting.

Starmer’s other major opponent is the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham.

However Burnham left Westminster in 2017 and would have to become an MP again in order to stand.

Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC), blocked him from running as the party’s candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election in February – at the behest of Starmer.

Burnham is believed to have approached several northern Labour MPs about standing down to trigger a by-election, but so far none have done so.

Even if someone is willing to resign, and the NEC does not block him again, there are no guarantees Burnham would win the subsequent by-election.

His decision to stand would also trigger a mayoral contest in Greater Manchester – which could give rival parties another chance to hammer Labour at the ballot box.

As the number of MPs calling on him to resign rises, the PM could decide he doesn’t need the hassle and announce he is quitting.

However, he has insisted he “won’t walk away” from the job, and in an interview with The Observer insisted he still planned to be prime minister for 10 years.

With the PM’s opponents apparently racked with indecision about what to do next, there is a world in which he rides out his latest leadership crisis.

In his make-or-break speech on Monday setting out how he plans to turn around Labour’s fortunes, Starmer said: “I know that people are frustrated by the state of Britain, frustrated by politics, and some people – frustrated with me.

“I know I have my doubters and I know I need to prove them wrong, and I will.”

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