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The Conservatives must tackle any renewal of a ‘crisis of confidence’

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The Conservatives must tackle any renewal of a 'crisis of confidence'

They say the secret to great comedy is timing.  It’s no less true in politics.

Steeped as this site is in following, analysing, and sharing with you – whatever you make of it – the fluctuations and fortunes of the Conservative party, timing is occasionally everything.

The announcement of a new Conservative policy aimed at students, to scrap the Plan 2 interest payments on student loans has been fortuitous. Quite apart from being smart politics being aimed at younger voters, it reinforces the pattern of policy thought through, not needing instant clarification – a step in the Badenoch strategy of ‘slow, steady and consistent.’

There’s also a sense, I have to report, that the new policy is ‘about time too’ and followed up with me rather too quickly with, ‘and there’s more to come, right?

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Why? Because maybe you’ve felt it, it’s certainly there in the air, that niggling doubt is creeping in again.

It’s true, I reported back from the Conservative Winter party a few weeks ago where – albeit green shoots only – amongst donors, the shadow cabinet and senior Tory supporters there was a noticeable sense of resilience and confidence in themselves; that the road ahead was decidedly tricky but they felt more up to the task. They were certainly no longer cowed by their angry rivals to the right.

Well self-confidence is a good thing. Badenoch herself can take a lot of the credit for providing it, but like Labour’s shaky claims that the green shoots of economic confidence are returning, you have to be able to show they’re really there at all, and accept there is something terribly vulnerable about a ‘green shoot’. A Party cannot renew without faith in the leader, but faith in the leader can’t do the work alone.

The projection of self-confidence Kemi displayed to the party at last year’s Conference was only going to resonate for so long. She’s undoubtedly built on it, by establishing that despite opponents suggestions, she is leader of the real, official opposition, and consistently hammers the bruises the Government has so consistently been giving itself – so much so that Labour are in the kind of existential mess she has done well to drag her party just about clear of. .

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But any hint of complacency about where they are now, would be politically suicidal.

Any confidence within a party is not a guarantee of confidence in a party. Indeed there is a whiff of a second ‘crisis of confidence’ coming, from the wider party and one that mirrors this time last year.

This feeling – and everything about politics today is ‘vibes’ – is not inexplicable. We are just over two months away from crucial elections that will have a big impact on everything that’s come in the last two years. They also carry warnings from similar elections last year where, leaders aside, it was obvious that the Tory brand was still as damaged as it had been in 2024.

This May’s local elections, and in Wales, and Scotland where Badenoch has been in recent days, will not be good for the Conservative party. They might not be catastrophic and indeed far, far worse for Labour, but dispel the idea they’ll be ‘good’ for fear of a nasty surprise.

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They’re now more likely to amplify the leadership question in Labour ranks than the Conservatives, but the absence of a rival who was always planning to move afterwards will not stop questions about direction, chances of success, and amplify the ‘wobbles’ our parliamentary party have been prone to.

Reform had a good week. The big defections have pushed many long standing Conservatives to ask themselves, again, if they are backing the right horse, questions I hear asked across the Conservative party. These shouldn’t be dismissed as disloyalty.

The Gorton and Denton by-election is, as it was always going to be for the Tories, the flip side of Parliament. Reform don’t get much of a look in in the Chamber by not being the opposition, and therefore, simply protocol wise, they are something of a side show there. Well in Manchester despite a good and brave candidate, the Conservatives are the side show. In Gorton and Denton they are all but ignored.

This is relevant because of the narrative now pushed by some observers, and certainly rival parties, that the electorate are no longer angry or vengeful but completely indifferent to the Tories. It’s a line that should be caveated in the same way predictions of their demise have proved premature – it’s something they need people to believe is fact – however it would be the most arrogant and complacent Conservative that didn’t worry about the consequences were it to be true.

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We are still within Badenoch’s ‘two years’ that it would take to even get a hearing again post 2024, but there are some important warnings flashing up.

Polling wise the Conservatives bubble around the 19-20 per cent mark, with the occasional unwelcome return to 16-17 percent and have not yet consistently overtaken Labour. That every percentage point rise is so much harder to gain in the five party landscape we now have, cannot brush aside the fact that the Conservatives are not even close to where they were in July 2024, and that any movement upwards is stubbornly slow, if not static.

On Friday, my good colleague Tali Fraser wisely took a point from Henry Hill’s final piece for ConservativeHome, and I’m going to do the same. It’s long been internal lore that ‘Henry has a point‘. No renewal, or recovery, or chance to win, will materialise until there is an offer that honestly and openly addresses the deep seated problems the UK faces. There are no parties doing that yet. They all claim to, but not the really big economic, and societal questions. I believe the Tories can, but they haven’t yet.

Everybody is carrying that damned “Ming Vase” still and wether you call it ‘responsible revolution’ or ‘responsible radicalism’ the latter bit of those phrases is still not quite there. From anyone.

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Part of the dampener on existing Conservative ‘new policy’ announcements is whilst many Tories are happy to see the direction of travel within them and the potential appeal to a tough electorate, they are often correcting problems the party created for itself when in Government. Being under new management, which definitely makes a difference, doesn’t stop that both being true, and noticed by voters and rival parties. The drag anchor of the past is still there, and still a big problem.

The irony of Labour failing to go ‘further and faster’ in their map-less quest for purpose  is that phase is the whispered suggestion for many Conservatives amongst Conservatives about the current Conservative plan.

Again, the demand we saw before Conference last year is building – people might like what they’ve seen, but are hungry for more, and want it bigger, bolder – and always better. I know the leadership team are aware of all of this. They understand the secrets of timing, but if they also know that they can only say they are ‘on it’ .But saying is not the same as doing, to those asking.

When I started as Editor, I told of a friend who said to me ‘Giles, we are not done burning yet’. Despite suggestions the party is ‘still in denial’, usually from those who need that to be the case, the doubts about the future are creeping in again, and they need tackling.

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The future is uncertain, there is a long way still to go, the finished picture is not available yet, and there are many who want to steam roller the entire project off course – permanently, if they can. It’s not unreasonable in such circumstances for those with reasonable doubts to seek reassurance that the project is on the right track, leads the right way, and is not a long slog to a dead end.

A new policy on student loans won’t be the complete answer, of course not, but it does at least show a process we are promised is ongoing is actually delivering, slowly. The party top brass has advocated patience so many times it’s a cliché, but as we get towards May, and certainly after, the worries will get louder.

The first rule of avoiding a trap is knowing of its existence. ConservativeHome will be eagerly seeking the signs that, if those at the top are aware of it, they are doing everything to avoid it.

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Phillipson Refuses to Say US Could Use UK Military Bases to Hit Iran

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Jenrick: The Country is Going Bankrupt, Reform Has Got to be Responsible

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Phillipson Grilled as Teacher Numbers Fall Year-on-Year

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Phillipson Grilled as Teacher Numbers Fall Year-on-Year

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Keir Starmer’s war on democracy

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Keir Starmer’s war on democracy

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Boris Johnson: UK Should Now Send Troops to Ukraine to ‘Flip a Switch’ in Putin’s Head

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HMO housing quality used as rallying cry for racist protest

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HMO housing quality used as rallying cry for racist protest

The notoriously racist and Islamophobic group, the Official Protestant Coalition (OPC) is at it again, this time advertising a protest entitled “Local home for local people”. The intention here is clearly to signal that houses should not be reserved for migrants.

As has been the case for other protests they’ve promoted, the group seems to be adopting the plausible deniability approach when it comes to taking responsibility for organising the hate fest. The loyalist group say:

We have been informed. This protest is organised for the people by the people and everybody and every group no matter who they are is welcome time to make a stand. We have been asked to share this. We have not organised it, but we support it God bless.

OPC’s other recent posts include an example of how the far-right will find a way to bash Muslims regardless of the circumstances. They show a mocked-up headline featuring a picture of alleged rapist Andrew Windsor, with the words:

Prince Andrew converts to Islam; police immediately drop all charges

HMO dog whistle an excuse to bash migrants

The poster for the protest indicates it will take place on March 27 outside the planning offices for Belfast City Council. It also urges supporters to “Say no to HMOs”. HMO stands for House in Multiple Occupation, and has become a form of dog whistle for racists wanting to whip up anti-immigrant sentiment, under the guise of demanding better housing.

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It can be an effective tactic, given that HMOs often are low-quality dwellings, suffering from mould and cramped rooms. Landlords will frequently convert a large home designed for a family and split it into separate flats. This increases what they term ‘yield’; i.e. you can cram a lot more people in than would previously have been the case, and make more money.

Often this ends up with unsuitable living conditions, such as kitchens or bathrooms without windows leading to the aforementioned issues with damp. In an article on how housing issues wrecked his mental health, Novara journalist Aaron Bastani described them as:

…shoeboxes with a focus on nothing but value extraction.

The other issue often raised is the issue of transience, in that HMOs are typically populated by young, single people who don’t stay long. This has led to complaints about a breakdown in “community cohesion“. In reality, they’re probably moving out quickly in most cases because the tiny damp flat they’re boxed into is unliveable.

The point about dire quality is doubly true for migrants, who typically end up in the worst places around. A recent report entitled Hostile Housing – The Health Impacts of Housing for People Seeking Asylum looked at the devastating impact shitty housing had on asylum seekers.

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The vile reality — worst housing is reserved for asylum seekers

These are people who have typically had to flee their homes in horrendous circumstances, escaping persecution and war. Yet we disgracefully fail them by focusing on what the report terms “containment over care”. The authors found that:

Four key themes emerged from the survey data: inadequate housing conditions, loss of autonomy and rights, privacy and safety concerns, and food insecurity.

On housing quality, respondents described widespread problems including overcrowding, damp, mould, poor ventilation and persistent noise. These conditions were linked by participants to respiratory problems, skin conditions and deterioration in mental health.

One woman said:

Yes, I’m suffocating a lot, I’m 31 weeks pregnant in very small room where there is no ventilation… I have breathing issue because of this.

The likes of Serco, Mears Group and Clearsprings Ready Homes — who provide accommodation for asylum seekers — have attempted to have HMO legislation watered down.

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The issue of housing should be the ultimate low hanging fruit for the left. Under a project of “more — and better quality — housing for all”, we could ensure better homes for everyone, and cut off an easy rallying point for the far-right.

The organisers of these protests are likely bile-filled racists, and some attendees will be too. That won’t be true of everyone going, however. Some will be angry people stuck on the obscenely long list for social housing, others will be people living in crap rentals under dodgy landlords. It’s a lot easier to scapegoat asylum seekers for social problems when those social problems are real.

The trick is to fix those problems, and show that it’s the likes of landlords, massive corporations, and their political lackeys who are to blame, not vulnerable people seeking protection after fleeing their home abroad.

Featured image via Belfast Media

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Trott: Labour is Trying to Tear Down the Performance of Those at the Top

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10 Cheeses You Can Still Eat If You’re Lactose Intolerant

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Knowing which cheeses contain lower percentages of lactose could open up a whole world of opportunities.

During an icebreaker game in college, one of my classmates confessed that she wasn’t allowed to eat cheese in her apartment.

Her fiancé couldn’t stand the sight or smell of cheese. Personally, that would be a relationship dealbreaker, but for others, avoiding cheese isn’t just a personal preference.

Lactose intolerance occurs when the small intestine produces too little lactase, the enzyme that digests lactose, which is the natural sugar in milk,” explained Michelle Routhenstein, a preventive cardiology dietitian and certified diabetes educator at Entirely Nourished.

“Undigested lactose passes into the large intestine, where bacteria ferment it, causing bloating, gas, cramps and diarrhoea.”

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Knowing which cheeses contain lower percentages of lactose could open up a whole world of opportunities.

Mint Images via Getty Images

Knowing which cheeses contain lower percentages of lactose could open up a whole world of opportunities.

Despite these unpleasant symptoms, you don’t have to write off cheese entirely if you’re lactose intolerant. As it turns out, there are several types of cheese you can still enjoy, even if you’re sensitive to lactose.

Below, we consulted registered dietitians about what to look for in a cheese and which cheeses you can eat in moderation if you’re lactose intolerant.

Should you avoid lactose?

“Many people with lactose intolerance can tolerate about 1 to 4 grams of lactose per serving, especially when eaten with other foods, though individual thresholds vary,” Routhenstein said.

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“Sticking to roughly 1 ounce of cheese, enjoying it as part of a meal, and spacing servings throughout the day can help improve tolerance.”

She also explained that lactose intolerance differs from a true milk allergy. “Anyone with a dairy allergy should avoid these cheeses entirely,” she said.

But if you’re sensitive to lactose or concerned about it affecting your digestion, you don’t need to avoid cheese completely. “Most of the lactose is strained out with the whey when making cheese,” Amanda Sauceda, a registered dietitian and gut health nutritionist, told HuffPost.

Let’s back up a second. There are two main proteins in milk: whey and casein. Whey is the cloudy liquid that is expelled from cheese curds during the process of making cheese or yogurt. “The remaining lactose gets broken down during fermentation as the cheese ages,” Sauceda said.

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That means the older the cheese, the lower the lactose. “Aged or fermented cheeses contain very little lactose and are often easier to tolerate than milk or fresh dairy products,” Routhenstein said.

Some softer cheeses, such as feta, are lower in lactose. There are also dairy-based cheeses that are lactose-free, as well as plant-based cheeses that don’t contain lactose, Sauceda said.

Cheeses that are lower in lactose

Cheeses that are higher in lactose are those with more than 3 grams of lactose per 100 grams. Examples include softer cheeses like mascarpone, which contains 4% lactose, and ricotta, which can have as much as 5% lactose.

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Even your favourite bagel spread can upset your stomach, as cream cheese contains between 4-4.6% lactose.

Some cheeses are lower in lactose, making them a good choice for people with lactose intolerance. Here are the cheeses our experts recommended.

Parmesan contains less than 0 grams of lactose per 1-ounce serving.

Martin Steinthaler via Getty Images

Parmesan contains less than 0 grams of lactose per 1-ounce serving.

Parmesan

Naturally low in lactose, Parmesan has less than 0 grams of lactose per 1-ounce serving, Sauceda said. Parmesan is also a source of vitamins and minerals, such as calcium and magnesium, which are important for bone health.

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“I love to sprinkle Parmesan on soups because it adds depth of flavour,” she said. This dry cheese has a golden rind, which you can grate and sprinkle on your pizza or pasta for a zesty crunch.

Cheddar

As an aged, hard cheese, cheddar is naturally low in lactose. Along with adding texture and flavour, the cheese ripening process results in the production of proteins with anti-inflammatory effects.

Cheddar contains less than 1 gram of lactose per 1.5-ounce serving or less than 2% lactose, Sauceda said. “For reference, one cup of milk has 12 grams of lactose.”

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She recommended keeping a block of cheddar on hand to pair with fruit like pears and grapes. “Shred the cheese for an easy topping on veggies you may not love,” she said. “Cheddar gets me more excited about broccoli.” This food hack isn’t just for kids.

Goat’s cheese

Made from goat’s milk, goat cheese has about 0.5 to 1 % lactose, Routhenstein said. “Its fat structure and mild acidity make it gentler on digestion,” she said.

Goat’s cheese has a tangier flavour and less lactose than cheeses made from cow’s milk. “It can be spread on salads, roasted vegetables, or whole-grain toast, adding flavor and heart-healthy fiber,” she said.

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Havarti

If you’re looking for a delicious and creamy cheese, look no further than Havarti, which contains 1% lactose.

“It needs to be aged enough to reduce remaining lactose,” Kristen Carli, a registered dietitian from WOWMD, told HuffPost. If the label doesn’t indicate the cheese is aged, visually inspect it for a darker yellow colour or a crumbly texture.

Havarti has a buttery flavour which becomes more intense and tangier with age. Enjoy it with fruit and wine or shred some Havarti on your favourite breakfast omelette.

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Gouda

“Aged Gouda contains 1% lactose,” Carli said. It has a sweet, nutty flavour and a crumbly texture that’s similar to Parmesan when it’s aged. “Gouda is best enjoyed with fruits and nuts on a cheese board,” she said.

Creamy brie only contains about 1-2% lactose.
Creamy brie only contains about 1-2% lactose.

Brie

Known for its buttery flavour and white rind, brie tends to be low in lactose, containing 1 to 2%.

“Most of the lactose is removed early when the whey is drained, and the bacteria in the cheese keep breaking down the rest as it ages,” Routhenstein said. “So, even though it’s creamy, brie doesn’t have much lactose and is easier to digest for those who are lactose intolerant.”

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You can enjoy brie at room temperature on a cheese plate. Or add it to flat bread or grilled cheese for melt-in-your-mouth deliciousness.

Swiss

With its holey appearance reminiscent of the moon, Swiss is a long-standing favourite. During fermentation, bacteria produce carbon dioxide and trap gas bubbles, resulting in the formation of eyes or holes.

Swiss contains 1% lactose, Carli said. Her advice was to enjoy it melted in French onion soup. Since Swiss is less salty than other cheeses, you can enjoy it with cured meats like bacon or prosciutto or crunchy snacks like crackers and pretzels.

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Feta

At 1% lactose, feta is another option for lactose-weary cheese lovers. It’s made from sheep’s milk.

“When it’s aged enough to reduce remaining lactose, sheep’s milk is even lower than cow’s milk versions,” Carli said. She recommended sprinkling feta on a Mediterranean salad, which usually contains a mixture of cucumbers, olives, tomatoes, red onions, and feta cheese tossed in olive oil or a lemon vinaigrette.

Farmer’s cheese

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You can find American-style farmer’s cheese in grocery stores. It’s made from pressing cottage cheese to remove the water.

“Farmer’s cheese contains slightly more lactose, around 2 to 3%, but small portions are usually well tolerated,” Routhenstein said. “As a fermented dairy, farmer’s cheese provides probiotics that support gut health and may help protect the heart.”

She recommended mixing farmer’s cheese into fruit or sprinkling it on cucumbers with a dash of black pepper for a savoury, heart-healthy snack.

Cottage cheese

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“With about 3 to 4% lactose, cottage cheese is a little bit higher in lactose but is still a good option when eaten in moderation,” Sauceda said. “A 100-gram serving, which is about half a cup, will have some lactose because it’s a fresh cheese with some of the whey remaining.”

Her advice is to start with a quarter cup of cottage cheese and see how your stomach feels. “Lately, I’ve been using cottage cheese, oats, and egg to make a pancake scramble,” she said. “Cottage cheese is really an MVP in the kitchen because you can bake with it, add it to pasta sauces to punch up the protein, or just enjoy it as is.”

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Phillipson on Trump Tariffs: We Want to Secure the Best Deal for British Businesses

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Kyiv Mayor Pauses Uncomfortably Regarding Trump Support

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Kyiv Mayor Pauses Uncomfortably Regarding Trump Support

The mayor of the Ukrainian capital struggled to say if he trusts Donald Trump in an awkward exchange on Sky News this morning.

The third round of trilateral talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia failed to make any significant headway last week, despite Trump’s desperate efforts to get a peace deal over the line.

The Trump administration has even suggested Ukraine might have to give up more of its sovereign territory in a compromise, even though allies say that would be rewarding Russia for its aggression.

But Putin continues to hold onto his maximalist goals for Ukraine while Trump baselessly blames Kyiv for the hold-up in negotiations.

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Sky News presenter Trevor Phillips asked Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko: “Do you trust President Trump?”

After a painfully long pause of around 12 seconds, Klitschko scoffed and said: “I try to trust him, but some times I do not understand the messages clearly from President Trump regarding peace in Ukraine.

“Peace in Ukraine is very important, very important for the whole war, but peace in Ukraine cannot be a capitulation agreement between Ukraine and Russia.”

Phillip replied: “In this fight, President Trump isn’t really in your corner. At best, he thinks of himself as referee.”

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Klitschko laughed and said: “If Trump has to be referee, he has to be very objective and to be neutral.

“But it will be much better to have such an influential man in our corner.”

He continued: “It’s also a task for President Zelenskyy to have a good relationship and understanding with President Trump of the United States.”

Asked if he can see an end to this war, the mayor paused again.

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“This war can stop easily. One person began this war – I’m talking about the president of Russia, Putin, who can stop [the war] easily,” he replied.

“Putin understands power. Russians never ever pay attention to a weak position. And that’s why we Ukrainians have to be strong, and we are stronger when we are together with our partners.”

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