The Great West Ham Fire Sale Begins – Stick or Twist

Note: I appreciate this won’t be of interesy to everyone, but it’s of great interest to me, which is why I’ve spent the bulk of Bank Holiday Monday writing it.

It’s happened. There’s no point in dwelling on what might have been. We got the third worst points total of any team in the Premier League. Of course we can all look at games where we could have got more, either due to VAR going against us or for plenty of other reasons. But what is the point? Everyone, including the fanbase, needs to get the pain out of our system and look to the future.

The next three months will be dominated by speculation about which players will leave and which players will be incoming. So let’s look at our current squad and analyse who is likely to stay, who we’d actually want to stay, and who will inevitably leave.

One positive point to make before we go into that is that we have plenty of youth players who are ready to step up to the first team, and a lot of them will get their opportunities, given the parlous state of the club’s finances. Mohamedou Kante, Ezra Myers, Olly Scarles and Freddie Potts are all likely to first team starters from August, with George Earthy, Airdas Golambeckis, Preston Fearon, Lewis Orford, Josh Ayala, Josh Landers and Kaelan Casey all knocking on a door that is more than ajar. I’m almost salivating at the prospect of at least two of those making it big.

Three players who will definitely be leaving are Calum Wilson, Adama Traore and Axel Disasi. Disasi will return to Chelsea. I’d love to think we could keep him, and if we were still in the Premier League, there would have been a good prospect of that, but not now we’re in the Championship. Traore and Wilson were on short term contracts and neither is likely to want to play in the second league.

So let’s look at the rest of the first team squad.

GOALKEEPERS

Mads Hermansen has done well since he managed to oust Alfonse Areola, but he is still not a goalkeeper that inspires confidence. He cost a lot of money (£15million), which is unlikely to be recouped if he were sold. Areola won’t want to benchsit in the Championship and will probably be sold to a European club. Lukasz Fabianski will also surely finally retire, after not being fit for most of the season after his return. We have a surfeit of youth team keepers, two of whom will fancy their chances of at least being the number two. Finlay Herrick and Krisztian Heygi are in the driving seat, but Mason Terry is making waves too.

SELL: Hermandsen, Areola, Fabianski

RETAIN: Heygi, Herrick, Terry

FULL BACKS

Despite what the ridiculous Jamie Carragher was saying yesterday, I still think El Hadj Malick Diouf is the best crosser of the ball in British football. Yes, he needs to loo up more and yes, he has had made his fair share of defensive errors, but he will be hot property this summer. He will undoubtedly be sold, and I would hope he would fetch around £30 million. So that leaves the way open for Olly Scarles and Ezra Mayers to fight it out to start the season as first choice Left Back. There’s also Emeke Adiele who seems to score goals for fun in the Under 21s.

On the other side Aaron Wan-Bissaka had a very disappointing season for the man who was Hammer of the Year in the 2024-25 season. No way will he stay and will be sold for a very decent profit on the £15 million we forked out for him two years ago. Kyle Walker-Peters is, without doubt, a decent right back and never lets you down. He’s unflashy, but also lacks pace. He’s also been relegated two seasons running. He joined us on a free a year ago on a three-year deal, but he’s still only 29 years old and I can see him wanting to stay in the Premier League, and joining one of the lesser, or promoted, teams. Junior Robinson, Ryan Battrum and Jethro Medine are all waiting in the youth team wings to stake their claims, but none would appear first team ready.

STICK: Kyle Walker-Peters

TWIST: Aaron Wan-Bissaka

CENTRAL DEFENDERS

I think it is safe to say that we will start next season with a completely new defence, something I don’t think has ever happened before. Disasi will return to Chelsea, Mavropanos has been brilliant in the second half of the season and despite his emotional reaction at the end of the Leeds game, I cannot see him staying. We should be able to get at least £20 million for him, which is not a big profit on what we paid, but a profit, nonetheless.

And then we come to Todibo and Kilman. Both cost a huge amount of money. Kilman signed from Wolves for £40 million and looked a very decent defender at first. But Potter and Nuno destroyed his confidence. He’s still only 29. If we could recoup half what we paid for him, I suspect we’d take it. But would it be a disaster if he stayed? Todibo has said he won’t ever play for Nuno again, but given Nuno is most likely to depart in the next few days, I’m not sure that’s a consideration. However, he sees himself as an international player, having played for France twice. He will want to return there and put the West Ham experience behind him. He’s been totally mishandled and we should let him go, but we’re unlikely to recoup more than half the £35 million we paid for him.

Kaelan Casey has long been seen as the most likely youth team defender to break through, but his loan to Swansea City last season didn’t work out and he only made eight appearances before moving to Orient for the second half of the season. To be honest, he didn’t make the impact Orient fans had hoped for, and failed to appear in the last two matches of the season. I suspect he will get a low-level transfer to a lower league club.

Casey has been overtaken by Airdas Golambeckis, who has impressed all season. It would be no surprise if he was given the chance to start as a first team choice, but even if he doesn’t achieve that from the start, he will certainly be a member of the first team squad.

Ezra Mayers can also play in central defence, and Rayan Oyebade is also a good prospect.

Perhaps we should try to tempt Vladimir Coufal into returning.

STICK: Airdas Golambeckis

TWIST: Max Kilman, Jean-Clair Todibo, Dinos Mavropanos, Kaelan Casey

CENTRAL MIDFIELDERS

The one certainly is that Mateus Fernandes has played his last game for West Ham. He was a consistent bright spark throughout his one season with us, and grew in stature as the season progressed. Bought for £38 million from a relegated Southampton, he is rumoured to be targets for PSG and Manchester United. Hopefully there will be competition for his signature which will drive the price up to more than £50 million.

Tomas Soucek has defied the odds and has shown great stickability. He’s played 270 games for his and scored 44 goals. He may lack the technical flair of Fernandes, but he brings so much to the team and clearly loves the club. In my view, there should be no question of him leaving and any new manager should give him the captaincy, assuming he wants to stay.

James Ward-Prowse is back from his loan spell at Burnley. After the way he has been treated he couldn’t be blamed for wanting to seek pastures new. But perhaps when Nuno departs he may want to see who the new manager is. He’s a class player and if he can recover his motivation, he could well be an asset, playing alongside Soucek and mentoring several of the emerging youth team players.

Soungoutou Magassa never really made a huge impact, and never got a run of games. He never let us down and looked a decent prospect. He did feature in 22 games. He can also play in central defence. There’s no doubt that he would be exactly the kind of player a Championship sides needs, but would he want to stay? I suspect he may be on his way back to France. He cost £15 million, and if we sold him we should look to recoup that. Monaco get a 10 per cent sell-on fee.

The midfield breakthrough player of last season was Mohamedou Kante, who didn’t make a Premier League start, but was used as a substitute on many occasions. He’s 6’5 tall and is a good substitute for Soucek.

Let’s not forget Edson Alvarez, who will now return from a loan spell with Fenerbahce, which due to injury restricted him to 12 appearances. He is likely to be named in the Mexican World Cup squad, having appeared 95 times for them. Let’s hope he has a good tournament, which can lead us to getting some kind of return on his original £35 million transfer fee. Remember, he’s still only 28.

Freddie Potts and George Earthy are proven Championship players with Portsmouth and Bristol City respectively. They won’t be going anywhere. In addition Lewis Orford has done well out on loan and will challenge for a first team place. Daniel Rigge and Preston Fearon are also being talked about in glowing terms.

STICK: Freddie Potts, Mohamadou Kante, George Earthy, Lewis Orford, Tomas Soucek

TWIST: Mateus Fernandes, James Ward-Prowse, Soungoutou Magassa, Edson Alvarez

WINGERS

If there is one player every West Ham fan would like to keep and build a team around, it would be our captain Jarrod Bowen. In the last week he has suffered the double blow of being relegated and also being brutally dumped from the England World Cup squad. By his standards, his goalscoring has been less than prolific, only hitting the net 9 times in the Premier League. Only two of those goals came since Christmas. His post match interview after the Leeds game led me to think he’s minded to stay. He’s now 29 and he could be forgiven for wanting one last big move, and none of us could hold it against him if Manchester United or Liverpool came in for him with a large bid and he was tempted. It would, though, need to be a bid in excess of £30 million. If he’s let go on the cheap, I think everyone would feel cheated. One thing which may motivate him to stay is that he’s only two goals off breaking Michail Antonio’s Premier League goalscoring record.

And then there is Crysencio Summerville. At times he’s the most frustrating player to watch, full of skill but too often without any end product. Too often he fails to make the right choice when deciding whether to shoot, or who to pass to. There’s no doubt, he’s a real talent, which is why we paid Leeds £25 million for his services. He’s still only 24 years old and his best years lie ahead of him. He will not wish to return to Championship football and will without doubt be sold. The question is whether we can make a healthy profit. He shouldn’t be let go for under £45 million. To get that, there will need to be some strong competition, possibly from European sides.

Maxwell Cornet has returned after two season long loans to Genoa, where it is safe to say that he was an utter failure. He only managed 15 games. He joined West Ham in 2021 but only played 21 games, scoring a solitary goal. He did show flashes of absolute brilliance, but partly because of injury, he never got a sustained run in the side. He’s 29, so by no means past it, and if he’s injury free it may be that he could still form part of a new manager’s plans. Unlikely, though. He’s a big expense of the wage bill, but wouldn’t command much of a transfer fee if we let him go.

I don’t see any members of the youth team who are knocking on the first team door on either flank. Keiber Lamadrid has had a couple of outings but didn’t shake any trees. Signed for £1 million from Venezuela, it wouldn’t be surprising if he moved on.

STICK: Jarrod Bowen

TWIST: Crysencio Summerville, Maxwel Cornet, Keiber Lamadrid

STRIKERS

It’s very difficult to predict what will happen with our strikers. We know that Callum Wilson’s contract is up and I doubt he’ll want to stay, even if Nuno departs. So, what of Taty Castellanos and Pablo? Both arrived in January. Taty has scored 6 goals in 18 games, a decent return for a Premier League newbie. Pablo hasn’t managed to find the net once. Neither was expecting to join a team that would be relegated. I suspect there will be efforts to move both on, but quite what the market for them will be is unclear.

Both Callum Marshall and Niklas Fullkrug have returned from their loan spells in Germany and Italy. Neither was a success. Marshall only scored 2 goals in 16 appearances at VFL Bochum, with Fullkrug managing a solitary goal in 19 games for Inter Milan. It’s cost him his place in Germany’s World Cup squad. Fullkrug cost £27 million, which was an absolute scandal. We’ll be lucky to be able to sell him to a minor German club for £5 million. I suspect Callum Marshall will go to a Championship or League One side. It’s sad, but he’s just not made the grade.

We have Josh Landers, Daniel Cummings, Josh Ajala and Majid Balogun are all well thought of in the youth set-up. Ajala and Landers have both been prolific in the Under 21s, but so have many other bright prospects, and then failed to make it in the first team if they have been given the opportunity.

STICK: None

Twist: Fullkrug, Marshall, Pablo, Taty Castellanos.

CONCLUSION

According to many pundits, West Ham need to bring in £150 million this summer if we are not to fall foul of SCR rules. These are the best case fees we could command…

Areola £5 million

Todibo £20 million

Mavropanos £25 million

Aaron Wan-Bissaka £22 million

Ed Hadj Malick Diof £25 million

Fernandes £60 million

Kaelan Casey £1 million

Max Kilman £15 million

Niclas Fullkrug £5 million

Callum Marshall £1 million

Pablo £15 million

Taty £20 million

Jarrod Bowen £30 million

Crysencio Summerville £40 million

Maxwel Cornet £1 million

Keiber Lamadrid £1 million

James Ward-Prowse £7 million

Edson Alvarez £20 million

Soungouto Magassa £15 million

Now all of that comes to an astonishing £328 million. The chances of us getting that are virtually nil. However, even if we bring in £200 million, that will mean there is some over to buy new players, even if they are no necessarily the kind of quality we would like.

If we get rid of most of those outlined, and taking into account the bright crop coming through the Under 21s, I think we will need to sign

1 Goalkeeper

1 Right back

3 Central defenders

2 Central midfielders

2 Wingers

2 Strikers

I suspect we will be looking at quite a few free transfers among those.

Phew. The end.