The House Article | A commitment to rejoin the EU would make Labour more electable

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As the hard deadline of the 28 October Budget approaches, despite a recent uptick in the opinion polls, the spectre of another fall in support cannot be ruled out.

Enter our latest research, which finds that a Labour manifesto commitment to full European Union membership would secure the most support from across the electoral coalition voters the Prime Minister must persuade to back him at the next general election.

The public have repeatedly made clear that they support far stronger ties with our closest allies and partners in the EU, on everything from trade to travel and defence, and will resoundingly reward parties who take the plunge.

This week, fresh polling by YouGov, commissioned by Best for Britain, and endorsed by former Labour leader, Lord Neil Kinnock, Burnham’s long-time mentor, and ex-European Commission vice president, both quantifies that support and makes the next step wholly unambiguous.

Committing to rejoining the EU in Labour’s next manifesto is vital for the party’s chances at the next general election.

Our research shows that it would significantly boost enthusiasm and inclination to vote for the party by a full 7 per cent across all voters in Great Britain (10K+ GB adults). British Future’s recent research added to the evidence base that the public wants the government to go beyond Keir Starmer’s ‘red lines’ on Europe. Our findings, based on clear data, take it further. It’s there in black and white – and red all over. 

There’s another reason that now is the time for bold action.

As Kinnock rightly highlights, “increasing numbers of people across Britain already know [this] to be the patriotic course”. On Monday, when the first ministers of the UK’s three devolved nations, including Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, signed a memorandum at Cardiff Castle, including the powerful commitment that “the future of their nations belong in the European Union”, the son of Tredegar made the unifying case. The argument for repairing the unnecessary damage caused by Brexit, for every person across all four nations of the UK. Not only that, but for Labour to lead the way, as both “public opinion and world realities make this advance essential”. Hear, hear. 

What’s more, the irrefutable growth case has also been set out in an independent econometric study by Frontier Economics, demonstrating that restoring our membership of the world’s largest, and our nearest, trading bloc can deliver a £92bn boost to the UK’s GDP, at the barest minimum, concentrated in the former industrial and manufacturing heartlands Burnham’s roots lie so deeply within. This is a route that can no longer be avoided, overlooked, or ignored. 

The siren calls – from crypto-cash funded populism and identity-driven nationalism – are all too real. The risks of dwindling public consent following a Budget feeding frenzy, coupled with emptying arms stores and public services running on fumes, are equally so.

But with a fair wind, for once, behind them, and an open goal in front, Burnham’s team must recognise that a narrow window of opportunity exists. A natural, likeable ‘every bloke’ with the necessary deftness to carry the country through a course correction occupies the highest office in the land, and is winning hearts and minds. A clear and conclusive path forward does exist which addresses both the political and economic conundrums the PM is confronted with, and can begin to right the wrongs of the past decade.  

It requires only bravery to reap its rewards.

Tom Brufatto is Director of Policy and Research at Best for Britain