The House Article | A snap election is not worth the risk for Andy Burnham

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“I am not going to call an election”, Andy Burnham told ITV News this week, “I am ruling it out right in front of you.” The new Prime Minister has made many such statements, but they have done little to quell speculation which grows with every upwards tick in Labour’s polling.

There are three arguments against a snap poll: the gains are small, the risks are large, and the case is weak. Burnham has a huge House of Commons majority and three years left to govern. The claim that as an “unelected” Prime Minister he needs a personal mandate is constitutionally unfounded and historically unsupported. No PM is directly elected, and the lack of a mandate proved little obstacle to earlier leaders who took over mid-term with Commons majorities.

Manifesto commitments offer a stronger argument. A new leader does not want to be bound by the promises of their predecessor, but breaking such pledges brings criticism and legislative resistance. Burnham is already struggling with the fiscal straitjacket created for Labour by Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves’ tax pledges, which he has said he will honour. An early election offers a shot at greater freedom.

But while a personal mandate is gratifying, and a new manifesto liberating, the risks are huge. Labour’s massive majority is built on sand, the product of electoral efficiency and political good fortune. The best-case scenario for Burnham would be a smaller, more fractious majority. Some losses are certain, while even victory can bring costs: an electoral near-death experience can weaken backbench loyalties.

While the new PM has hinted at radical plans in areas such as devolution, social care and electoral reform, there is no obvious barrier to getting these done with his current massive majority

Worse outcomes are possible. Labour’s polls have rebounded under Burnham, but only from dire to poor. Current projections still suggest Labour would do well to emerge as the largest party, let alone win a majority. Then there is the ground game. The Labour Party is running low on money and members. Party members in Burnham’s North West region, who have pounded pavements five times in the last year, won’t welcome being called out again.

A short campaign mobilising grievances against a disappointing government could benefit opposition parties more than the incumbent, particularly if shocks from abroad weaken the economy and push up prices, hardly an implausible scenario with Donald Trump in the White House and the Straits of Hormuz still closed.

Snap polls have gone wrong before. Theresa May tried to bank a twenty-point poll lead, which then evaporated overnight. Rishi Sunak tried to get the jump on his opponents but instead wrong-footed his own MPs and activists.

Only Boris Johnson has recently turned an early election to his advantage. His example is instructive. Johnson pushed for an election from the moment he took office, arguing that only an election could break the deadlock in Parliament and “get Brexit done.” When Johnson finally got his early contest, he had to repeatedly underline what he wanted to do and why an election was needed to do it. A united and mobilised Leave electorate did the rest.

Burnham, like Johnson, would need a strong argument to convince sceptical voters and anxious colleagues. Yet while the new PM has hinted at radical plans in areas such as devolution, social care and electoral reform, there is no obvious barrier to getting these done with his current massive majority. A manifesto-breaking shift on tax and spending throws up more obstacles, but “elect me so I can raise your taxes” isn’t an appealing pitch to voters.

The main reason an early election looks unlikely is therefore simple: there is no need. That may change – current Budget plans price in eye-watering cuts in the final years of this Parliament, cuts Burnham may struggle to avert without breaking Starmer’s tax pledges. The temptation to seek a new mandate will therefore grow as this Parliament ages, particularly if Labour’s poll leads hold up, or opposition disarray intensifies. Burnham may well go earlier than he must. But I doubt he goes soon.

Rob Ford is an elections analyst and Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester