The House Article | Burnham still needs to sell devolution to the public

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Prime Minister Andy Burnham has put devolution firmly on the agenda since entering office last month, promising the biggest transfer of power away from Westminster in a generation.

Here at “Ipsos North” in Manchester, we have long taken a keen interest in devolution. Namely, how does the public actually feel about it?

As a starting point, we find that people generally like where they live and work, and many may understand the appeal of policy decisions being made closer to them.

In a survey last month, a huge three in four UK adults told us they are satisfied with their neighbourhood, which is a good proxy for “their postcode”. It is a trend we have tracked that has been largely stable over the past four years.

The challenge, however, comes when devolution moves from the relatively abstract idea of “decisions being made closer to people” to the more concrete question of taxation powers, a central plank of the new PM’s agenda.

When Ipsos asked whether people would support or oppose giving local authorities or regional mayors the power to set a portion of personal income tax, a quarter (24 per cent) said they would support it, with almost twice as many (46 per cent) saying they would oppose it.

More than half of UK adults (53 per cent) think the overall amount of tax they personally pay would be higher if their local authority or regional mayor had more power to set and collect taxes, with 8 per cent thinking it would be lower (27 per cent say it would stay the same).

The contrast with taxes on local businesses shows a similar story, if not more evenly divided, with nearly a third (35 per cent) supporting the idea of local powers to set business taxes and another third (33 per cent) opposing it.

These findings do not mean the public are against devolution. What they show is a significant chunk of the population needs to be convinced that more power for their local areas will make a positive difference in their lives.

It is worth noting that the proportion that neither opposed nor supported the above statements on tax was around a third, suggesting a substantial minority don’t know enough to have a view at all. Therein lies an opportunity for the new ministry.

Furthermore, beyond the question of “who pays”, we find that voters can see the potential upside of further fiscal powers flowing to them.

Thirty-eight per cent think locally set and collected taxes would be spent more effectively in their local area than they are currently by national or devolved governments, compared with 26 per cent who think they would be spent less effectively.

Similarly, a third (34 per cent) believe giving local authorities or regional mayors more power over taxes would lead to better outcomes for public services in their area, compared with 28 per cent who think outcomes would be worse.

So then, the challenge for Burnham is not public opposition to greater devolution, but voters who are naturally focused on who pays, how much, and whether extra local power will actually translate into visible benefits they can see, feel and hear about.

Burnham can point to his record in Manchester as evidence of devolution in action. However, he must persuade voters elsewhere in the country that it can work for them, too.

Rachel Brisley is Director of Planning and Devolution at Ipsos in the UK