The House Article | It is time for a serious conversation about rejoining the EU

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The defeat of Viktor Orbán’s odious regime in Hungary represents a potential turning point in the future of Europe and the Western alliance. For over a decade, it has felt as if Western democratic nations have been stuck on an inevitable path towards fracture and decline. Populist forces on the right have been pulling our countries apart, dismantling the rules-based global order, destabilising international alliances, and poisoning the well of our democracies. Orbán’s Hungary was an extreme example, but for the pound shop demagogues promoting his brand of politics in the UK and beyond, it was held up as an ideal.

This defeat should give us all hope that this populist wave can be defeated, and we can rebuild what has been damaged.

Péter Magyar spoke openly in the wake of his victory about rejoining global institutions and deepening international co-operation. It was what he said next that grabbed headlines here, suggesting that just as Hungary seeks to rejoin the European club, so too should the UK. 

This was quickly backed up by Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky, who argued that Donald Trump’s threat to pull the USA out of NATO should prompt the UK to rejoin the EU. This kind of talk is unthinkable from politicians in London – with even the Lib Dems talking about rejoining only the customs union – but should it be? And is it time to begin a serious debate about EU membership?

Of course, the government would say they are already rebuilding relations with Europe, and they are right. There has been a significant change of tone and approach under Labour, which has been noticed and welcomed on the continent. The deals the government is negotiating, including on energy markets and agricultural and food standards, are important in their own right. I hope they go further with deeper dynamic alignment on issues such as workers’ rights and UK access to the SAFE defence funding mechanism. These would be important evidence of building on this approach.

However, this approach on its own will never come close to reversing even a fraction of the deep economic damage done by Brexit, with per capita GDP 6-8 per cent lower, and employment 3-4 per cent lower, than if we had not left the EU. More fundamentally, when European leaders gather to discuss Trump’s tariffs or AI regulation, the UK is not at the table. And if NATO starts to wither due to American indifference, then we may see important defence and security decisions being made at the EU level too.

Speaking to EU colleagues, it is increasingly obvious that the idea that the UK could enjoy a ‘best of both worlds’ situation is a fantasy. The EU is very clear: the benefits of membership come with obligations. As the leader of one of the UK’s most pro-European trade unions, it has been frustrating to watch others fail to grasp this fundamental point. Too often, the UK has been stuck talking to ourselves about which bits of Europe we would like to rejoin, without stopping to consider what will fly in Brussels. The only viable routes for European reintegration are some version of the government’s current deal or a serious conversation about membership of the EU.

Helpfully, the public seems to grasp this, according to new polling from Best for Britain. When asked about variations of the UK-EU relationship, the only two options with majority support are the government’s current position (closer alignment within their red lines) or full membership. Halfway house approaches, such as rejoining the single market or customs union, have lower support, and the latter barely makes a difference economically beyond the current approach.

The government has done the right thing by resetting our relationship with Europe. But the strategic case for the UK to consider EU membership is getting stronger by the day, and should become a serious debate as we reflect on the referendum’s tenth anniversary and look towards the next election. We should not pretend that politics will be easy; the trade-offs are real, and memories of the Brexit debates are still raw.

But the idea that this is politically unthinkable simply does not hold water.

Not only does exploring it command majority support, but it could form an obvious rallying point for progressives to unite against the threat of Reform UK. Events in Hungary should give us hope that we are not doomed to live in the world of the populists and accept the UK becoming poorer, more divided, and more irrelevant each passing year. 

We can set our own destiny if we are brave and bold enough to argue for it.

Mike Clancy is General Secretary of the Prospect trade union and Chair of the UK Domestic Advisory Group on the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement