The House Article | Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

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Even the most enthusiastic advocates of a change in the Labour leadership are starting to wonder whether the current stalemate will really be broken by terrible results in May.

The party’s press operation may not yet have begun its expectation management ahead of the elections, but a very low bar has already been set in the minds of its MPs. “Ah, but that’s baked in,” they often say when asked about the possibility of shocking outcomes such as losing power in Wales for the first time ever. The number of Labour councillors lost in England could easily exceed 1,000, one whip privately conceded with a shrug.

The mood of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) can shift quickly, however, and allies of Andy Burnham hope that, in the case of truly dismal results, MPs will wake up to the severity of the crisis the party finds itself in and get moving. The best-case scenario for them would be an orderly transition in which Keir Starmer sets a date for his departure, allowing time for the ‘King of the North’ to get into position.

Although the Iran war makes this less likely, the good news for Burnham is that he appears to have secured the support of senior members of the PLP, especially the Tribune group. Ed Miliband, Louise Haigh, Lisa Nandy and Miatta Fahnbulleh are all now considered by sources close to the mayor to be on board the Burnham train. He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer.

After being promised by a senior Labour figure that his Gorton and Denton candidacy would not be blocked, Burnham failed to lobby National Executive Committee officers ahead of the vote and was blindsided by the outcome of his application. He is a busy politician with significant responsibilities, so “trying to find the time to be the saviour of the Labour Party and the civilised world is quite tough”, reasons one ally. But The House understands that Burnham is now doing the outreach required for a move.

                              READ: Worker Bees: Inside The Burnham Operation

He has started meeting with Labour MPs in a more intentional way, and a supporter of his ambitions says he is beginning to organise among trade unions too. Unison – a huge party affiliate that is best associated with Rayner but is now led by Andrea Egan, a Burnham fan – is regarded as key. The unions are significantly more amenable to the idea of a Burnham bid than they were pre-Gorton, says a source.

The increase in backing for Burnham has run parallel to a waning of Rayner’s star power. The more she says, a critic on the left asserts, the worse it gets for her.

Although the speech she delivered to soft-left group Mainstream’s March reception was successful in creating headlines, multiple sources say some of the contributions to it from left-wing partner Sam Tarry, MP Clive Lewis and ex-MP Jon Cruddas were removed by her parliamentary team. “The deeper thinking was ripped out,” as one disappointed insider puts it, adding that this left her with a classic Friday night Constituency Labour Party stump speech.

So, MPs on the soft left and left are waiting for Burnham instead. Getting into the PLP nonetheless remains a challenge, of course – but his allies are confident that appropriate options exist and that it will be easier to exert control over the timing of such by-elections this time.

They will not comment on which specific seats Burnham is eyeing. But with Marie Rimmer’s Merseyside seat out of the running (the MP has told The House in no uncertain terms that she would not be stepping aside to make way for the mayor), one friend of the mayor suggests that Manchester Rusholme (Afzal Khan) and Bootle (Peter Dowd) are seen as the favourites – and that the promise of a peerage could smooth this path.

Labour’s third-place result in Gorton and Denton has worried local MPs, they say, making it easier to persuade them to quit the green benches before they are pushed. Another idea floated is that Nandy could swap places with Burnham, though there is no suggestion that the Culture Secretary has endorsed such a plan.

So, as Burnham looks increasingly like the desirable choice for Starmer critics, his operations, organisation and policy work are all being ramped up.

For supporters, what worries them above all is the scale of the repair job needed. “Gorton and Denton had to happen for Andy’s support to rise this much, but on the other hand, Gorton and Denton may have been the death of the Labour Party,” says a Burnham-allied MP.