The House Opinion Article | A new Labour leader poll bounce would be fragile

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Pity Keir Starmer. Clinging on in Downing Street while a leadership contest in all but name rages around him. Forced to campaign for a man who hopes to oust him. Change is what he promised the British people, and a change seems to be what his colleagues now want. Whether that satisfies the electorate is another matter entirely.

The Prime Minister currently ‘enjoys’ the lowest satisfaction level of any PM since they started asking the question in the 1970s. Coupled with the disastrous results suffered by the Labour Party in recent elections, this has proved enough to bring simmering discontent with the Prime Minister to the boil. According to recent Stonehaven polling, only 47 per cent of 2024 Labour voters now think he should stay in No 10. The resignations of Wes Streeting and Jess Philips, plus a host of junior ministerial colleagues, coupled with the clear ambition of Andy Burnham to secure the top job, have piled the pressure on.  

But would a change of leader help the party? The data here is mixed. Based on a simple question – how much more or less likely would you be to vote Labour if the party had a contest that elected a new leader – 35 per cent of 2024 Labour voters who have deserted the party declare they would not support the party even in this eventuality. 23 per cent say they would be slightly more likely to, 7 per cent much more likely, while 35 per cent want to wait and see who the winner is.

More sophisticated MRP modelling, which incorporates tactical voting, finds some 23 per cent of all voters are more likely to vote for the Labour Party under a leader other than Starmer (13 per cent slightly more likely and 9 per cent much more likely), while 12 per cent did not know. 42 per cent said they would not vote Labour irrespective of the leader.

On the surface at least, such shifts could have a significant impact. The Stonehaven MRP model projects the following seat distribution as its current base case: Reform UK 258 seats, Labour 154, the Conservatives 98, the Liberal Democrats 75, the SNP 32, the Greens 10 and Plaid Cymru 4.

Yet in a scenario in which voters who said they would be more likely to support Labour under a new leader switched their vote accordingly, that changes significantly. Under the most expansive scenario (whereby all those who said they would be “slightly” or “much” more likely to back Labour under a new leader do so), the equivalent numbers are: Labour 336 seats; Reform 151 seats, the Conservatives 45, the Liberal Democrats 70, the SNP 23,  the Greens 3, and Plaid Cymru 4.

There’s a caveat. This modelling only captures voters who would be more likely to support Labour under a new leader. It does not account for those who might abandon Labour after a leadership contest. The figures should therefore be read as an indication of the ceiling of potential recovery rather than a forecast of Labour’s position under any specific alternative leader.

Now, on the one hand, these findings are significant enough to give some grounds for optimism that a leadership contest might lead to a polling recovery. On the other hand, they should be treated with caution.

It is remarkable how unpopular Starmer has become and how quickly. It is difficult to square what has clearly been a lacklustre premiership with the levels of dislike he has generated. 47 per cent of even Labour voters either dislike him or are neutral about him, which suggests that something more profound is going on.

And this is a longer-term malaise, a growing impatience on the part of the public with sustained failure to deliver prosperity. Britain is afflicted by a pervasive dissatisfaction driven by a long-term failure to generate economic growth. The current Prime Minister is carrying the can not only for his own mistakes but for those of his predecessors.

This suggests that the problem might not be specific to Starmer. Rather, we find ourselves trapped in a political economy doom loop. A stagnating economy has generated declining trust in politicians. This makes people less likely to tolerate short-term pain on the promise of longer-term progress. A consequent appetite for quick and easy solutions encourages short-termism that does little to address real structural problems. And on. And on.

There is little reason to suspect that Starmer’s successor will not be subject to the same pressures. Whatever polling bump they might enjoy will be fragile, and they risk falling victim to the same demand for instant results. Whether Labour sticks or twists, the need to deliver palpable improvements in living standards prior to their next appointment with the electorate will remain overwhelming.

Anand Menon is a Director at Public First and Director of UK in a Changing Europe