The House Opinion Article | Europe must stop pulling its punches on Trump

4 min read07 January

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on Christmas Eve 1979. Nicolae Ceausescu, President of Romania, and his wife Elena were executed on Christmas Day 1989 – pretty much the last domino to fall in the collapse of communism in Central Europe. Mikhail Gorbachev, the last President of the Soviet Union, resigned on 25 December 1991, with the Soviet Union officially dissolved the following day.

The Christmas just past was, however, more of a slow burn: the campaign of US airstrikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean Sea; the build-up of the American armada off the Venezuelan coast; all culminating in the Big Show of 2 January, with US airstrikes on Venezuelan ports, airfields and military bases, and the seizure and transport to a New York prison of President Maduro and his wife.

So, what happens next in Venezuela? I doubt that there is a detailed plan for future elections or nation-building: that’s not the way this administration leans. The early talk of US boots on the ground seems to have gone away. Instead, it looks like the US will “run” Venezuela through instructing Nicolas Maduro’s Vice President, the hapless, out-of-her-depth, Delcy Rodriguez. Not just Rodriguez but also most of Maduro’s cabinet, together with the military leadership, remain in place: for the time being, less regime change, more a Trump accommodation with the leftists.

All that said, it does seem to be full speed ahead on the US business takeover of the Venezuelan oil Industry, with its largest reserves on the planet. This is one of the predictable things about this most unpredictable of American presidents: behind every major move, there is a big and lucrative business objective.

What has this meant for Europe? Initially, it has required rigorous sessions of verbal gymnastics for Europe’s leaders as they explain to their populaces that, while the US attack on Venezuela might have breached international law (it certainly did), it didn’t mean Trump had done anything wrong, because Maduro was a bad guy – corrupt, brutal and incompetent.

Listening to these contortions reminded me of my time as head of the news department in the FCO, advising ministers on how to handle awkward questions in their media appearances: “just the double somersault and twist should work for that one, minister”.

The more serious question is about the future. Trump will think he is on a roll: the ceasefire in Gaza; the claimed complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear programme; now the decapitation of Venezuela, as the first exemplar of the revived Monroe Doctrine. Where next?

Thanks to the interventions of Trump staffers Mr and Mrs Stephen Miller, the spotlight has fallen on… Greenland. What if? Even posing this question highlights the extraordinary times in which we live. Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, self-governing on internal affairs, but relying on Denmark for defence.

It is surely inconceivable that the US could seize some of the territory of Denmark, a Nato member and ally – except Trump won’t let it go. He has repeatedly declared that, for supposed national security reasons, Greenland must become American territory and has refused to rule out the use of force to achieve this objective.

This could be intimidation: bullying Copenhagen to make some sort of offer. But Stephen Miller raised the stakes on US national TV this week, questioning the basis for Denmark’s sovereignty over the island and asserting that “nobody’s going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland”.

If the unthinkable – annexation by force – were to happen, it would surely be the end of Nato: imagine the celebrations in Moscow. So, it’s a moment for real and complete European solidarity, and for some clear, united messages to Washington – ideally private but public if necessary. Europe, including the UK, must stop pulling its punches and do better.

Lord Darroch is a crossbench peer and former British ambassador to the United States