Politics
The House Opinion Article | Labour cannot afford a row with students
(Credit: Haris Malekos)
4 min read
With the Greens and even the Tories ready to outflank them, Labour must take action on student loans to show it is still on the side of young people.
Tuition fees are back on the political agenda for the first time since the increase to £9,000 during the coalition years. There were many lessons to be learnt from the impact of that rise in 2012. The change was near fatal to the Liberal Democrats at the next election and has continued to haunt them ever since, with the party still not trusted with young voters more than 15 years later.
The Labour Party now stands in a precarious position, at risk of making a similarly damaging mistake and losing support with a generation of young graduates who have become a key demographic.
While standing to be Labour leader, Keir Starmer described the need to end the “scandal of spiralling debt”. A month ago, however, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the current system of Plan 2 loans is “fair”. Sticking with the latter position, and not reviving the former, would side Labour against a key group of voters, leaving the Greens and even the Conservatives with an opportunity to outflank them.
Graduates and younger people were key to Labour’s success at the 2024 general election. YouGov polling suggested that 42 per cent of voters with a degree supported Labour, more than twice as many as who voted Conservative (18 per cent). Even smaller portions of this cohort voted for Reform (8 per cent) and the Greens (9 per cent).
This has changed dramatically since then, however.
The same pollster now has only 25 per cent of graduates voting Labour, closely followed by the Green Party on 21 per cent. This represents a near 15-point swing from Labour to the Greens. There is a similar trend amongst young people. At the last election, 41 per cent of 18-24 year olds supported Labour. This has now halved to just 21 per cent. Meanwhile, the Greens, who want to scrap tuition fees altogether, have jumped from 18 per cent to 37 per cent with the same age group and are also more popular than Labour with 25-29 year olds, overturning a 33 point deficit to lead by 7 points.
Both these groups may be small parts of the electorate overall, but they will continue to grow in size and significance. There are already an estimated 5.8m adults who took out a student loan between 2012 and 2023. With almost half of graduates predicted to never pay back their loan in full, these concerns will remain with graduates as they enter their 30s, 40s and 50s, while, at the same time, more young people attend university and are burdened with debt.
The risk for Labour is that even delayed and reactive tweaks to the system, which reportedly could come as soon as next week, may struggle to win over young Green curious voters who are tempted by Zack Polanski’s bolder offer to scrap tuition fees altogether.
The electoral threat has been further complicated by Labour’s decision to allow 16 and 17-year-olds a vote at the next general election.
Our polling of teenagers aged 13-17 (who will all likely be eligible to vote at the next general election, depending on timings) highlights the impact of university fees on this cohort. Almost 3 in 4 (71 per cent) teenagers say that reducing tuition fees is a big priority which should be addressed urgently. This new electorate of 16-17-year-olds will only be one or two years away from aspiring to attend university when polling day next comes around, and tuition fees will be high on their personal agendas. If Labour is not seen as the party on their side on this issue, then the decision to extend the vote to this group risks backfiring on the party and boosting the electoral prospects of their rivals.
It would be wrong to say that this is a narrow interest in terms of the population at large.
According to Ipsos research published this week, a majority of Brits (54 per cent) say that student loans should not be charged any interest, with just over three-quarters (76 per cent) of Brits concerned that students are ending up with too much debt from going to university. Dealing with student loans can reaffirm Labour’s support with their base, but also appeal to parents, employers and voters outside of it.
Being seen as failing to do so will only fuel Labour’s losses.
Julian Gallie is Head of Research at Merlin Strategy
