The House Opinion Article | Labour can’t afford to ignore Andy Burnham

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With these local elections putting more pressure on Keir Starmer’s position, one name keeps re-emerging in speculation about who could replace him: Andy Burnham.

Burnham, who lost the Labour leadership contest to Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, has rebuilt his political brand outside Westminster – a rarity in British politics.

Whether as the next Labour leader or a government minister, the Greater Manchester Mayor’s name persists. Despite not being an MP, recent Ipsos polling suggests Labour would be unwise to ignore him.

When Ipsos asked Britons who should lead Labour if Starmer resigned, 17 per cent chose Burnham – more than triple his nearest rival, Angela Rayner (5 per cent). Among 2024 Labour voters, Burnham’s lead widens slightly: 25 per cent back him, compared to 10 per cent for Rayner and 5 per cent for Wes Streeting. It should be noted that a majority of the public doesn’t have a preference. Yet Burnham clearly leads with those who do.

Burnham’s position outside Westminster means that if a leadership contest is imminent, he would be sidelined. Yet the polling makes one thing clear: no other current Labour figure commands his level of support. At least today.

Ipsos’ monthly Political Pulse tracking underscores Burnham’s position. He remains the only politician across the political spectrum to consistently hold a positive net favourability rating.

In April 2026, 30 per cent of Britons viewed Burnham favourably, against 24 per cent unfavourably (+6 net favourability). This follows ratings of +7 in March and +6 in February. Compare Burnham’s ratings to the Prime Minister, Chancellor, and other notable politicians, and his position stands out further.

What sets Burnham apart? Crucially, far fewer Britons currently actively dislike him.

This contrast is stark when comparing Burnham to Labour colleagues who have been touted as possible successors. While 24 per cent of the public are unfavourable towards Burnham, for others that figure is much higher: Rayner (49 per cent), Ed Miliband (47 per cent), Yvette Cooper (40 per cent), Streeting (39 per cent).

This is a key driver behind his positive ratings.

And Burnham’s low unfavourability ratings are not due to a lack of name recognition – the percentage of Britons who have an opinion of Burnham (56 per cent) is comparable to Streeting (56 per cent) and Cooper (54 per cent), and just below Miliband (64 per cent) and Rayner (67 per cent). If any of the other politicians became the next Labour leader, they would be starting from a more negative position. Though, of course, we cannot know how they would perform in office.

Crucially, Burnham can also count on a strong personal brand in the North West. Analysis shows that from February to April, Burnham had an aggregated net favourability rating of +24 in his home region. This compares well with possible leadership rival Rayner (-24), the Labour Party overall (-36), the Prime Minister (-45), Nigel Farage (-24) and Zack Polanski (-12). The North West is not the only important election battleground, of course – but it is an important one.

Any future Labour leader must win over voters currently backing other parties. When Ipsos asked whether various politicians have what it takes to be a good PM, 27 per cent agreed Burnham does (29 per cent disagreed). At a headline level, Burnham’s ratings appear unremarkable, but they are stronger than those of other politicians, including Farage (25 per cent agree, 60 per cent disagree), Rayner (11 per cent agree, 58 per cent disagree) and Streeting (9 per cent agree, 44 per cent disagree).

Significantly, he appears to carry appeal with more progressive voters.

For example, 38 per cent of Green supporters and 45 per cent of Liberal Democrats think Burnham has what it takes to be a good PM. By contrast, just 16 per cent of Greens and 15 per cent of Lib Dems say the same of Rayner, and 7 per cent of Greens and 15 per cent of Lib Dems say the same of Streeting. Persuading progressive voters to support Labour against Reform UK at the next election is a key strategic goal for Labour next time. There is some evidence that Burnham is well placed to do this – at least for now.

A Burnham leadership is not without risks.

As the Gorton and Denton by-election in February highlighted, Labour is not guaranteed to win in former strongholds, and Burnham’s personal brand might not be enough to win a by-election. Furthermore, victory in a by-election could inadvertently make the Greater Manchester Mayoralty vulnerable to Reform or the Greens. The council election results in the northwest of England on Friday morning demonstrate this risk.

Likewise, association with Westminster or this unpopular Labour government could taint Burnham’s ratings once in parliament.

And, obviously, popularity now is no guarantee of success in office should Burnham make it to No 10. Starmer was once the most popular leader of the opposition ever, according to Ipsos polling (June 2020). Theresa May had sky-high approval ratings for her first year in office, only to lose her majority in 2017. Things can change.

But if the next election becomes a case of Labour needing voters elsewhere to coalesce behind them to stop Reform, Burnham will be a compelling choice for Labour MPs, according to our current polling numbers. His rivals face a steeper climb; they must first overcome substantial public scepticism when making their case.

For now, Burnham generates the least hostility and commands the broadest cross-party appeal. His positive ratings in the North West feel significant, too.

The question is not whether Labour should consider bringing him back to Westminster – it’s whether they can afford not to.

Ben Roff is a Senior Research Executive at Ipsos focused on UK politics.