The House Opinion Article | Schools must be supported as the birth rate falls

4 min read13 min

What does a major capital city with no children look like? It’s a question policymakers in London are reckoning with.

The figures are stark. Reception pupil numbers have fallen in the capital since 2016, while Year 7 numbers have been declining since 2019. Around 90 schools have closed or merged in London over the last five years – and the decline shows no sign of slowing.

The birthrate is falling faster here than anywhere else in the country. London was also the only English region to see its population decline last year, according to recent Office for National Statistics figures. Outside the Covid pandemic, it was the first time London’s population had declined since the 1980s.

People’s decisions to leave or not have children in the capital are varied, but London’s affordability crisis is well known. On average, rent takes up around half of a worker’s income, while the housing ladder can feel impenetrable for first-time buyers. Coupled with soaring everyday costs, it’s no wonder many feel they cannot put down roots here.

Fewer children mean fewer pupils. For state schools, which are funded by government on a per-pupil basis, this can ultimately mean closures.

It’s easy to get lost in the numbers. But falling pupil numbers and school closures affect children, parents, staff and entire communities. I’ve seen how disorientating closures can be, leaving children and families feeling displaced and staff facing redundancy.

I’ve also seen the dedication of borough and school colleagues across London in supporting families and staff through these challenging experiences.

Local authorities have proved resourceful in using their existing powers to respond to falling pupil numbers.

For schools facing closure, mergers are often a solution and, with the right support, can help children integrate fully into their new school.

When St Mary’s CofE Primary School closed in Hackney last year, many pupils transferred to nearby St Matthias CofE Primary School. Before enrolling, St Mary’s children attended playtimes, lunchtimes and “meet the teacher” sessions at St Matthias, allowing friendships to form naturally. This phased transition was crucial to helping pupils and families adjust.

Falling pupil numbers have also left schools with empty classrooms and buildings. Boroughs are finding new uses for this space. In Hammersmith and Fulham, the council leased spare space to private and community organisations, generating more than £100,000 a year for one host school.

Rising demand for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) provision means surplus space can also create opportunities. In Bexley, 122 new SEND places across nine local schools have been created, saving an estimated £8m by reducing reliance on costly out-of-area placements.

In Croydon, spare capacity now supports a unit helping asylum-seeking children settle into mainstream education.

These examples show what boroughs can achieve. But the closure process remains unnecessarily bureaucratic, unbalanced and opaque for families. Consultations for local-authority maintained schools can take up to six months, prolonging uncertainty. Conversely, families at academies are only notified once a closure decision has been made, leaving little opportunity to have their say.

London Councils, representing all London boroughs, is calling on the Department for Education to equalise the closure process across all school types, creating a more consistent, efficient and fairer system.

Councils should also have greater powers to decide how surplus school premises are used, avoiding unnecessary government approval delays and reducing the time buildings remain empty.

This is an opportunity for government to meaningfully deliver on its mission to rewire the state. Councils have the relationships and expertise to manage falling pupil numbers and resulting mergers or closures. Trusting them is central to what devolution can look like in practice.

Falling pupil numbers are here to stay. The response must be compassionate and collaborative, with children, parents and staff at its heart.

Una O’Halloran is the Labour leader of Islington Council and London Councils’ Executive Member for Children and Education