Trump and his war on Iran is costing more than a bomb

US President Donald Trump’s war may be costing Americans $1bn a day. As the US switches from ‘smart’ bombs to ‘gravity’ bombs there are questions about where this runaway conflict is going. And now an esteemed air power scholar has warned the Americans are stuck in a strategic trap.

The US and Israel attacked Iran first on 28 February without provocation. Iran was offering unprecedented concessions in negotiations at the time. The Pentagon has since stated there was no imminent threat from Iran. And the UN’s atomic watchdog, the IAEA, has said there is no evidence Iran was developing a nuclear weapon.

Atlantic reporter Nancy Youssef posted on X on 4 March:

An anonymous official’s comment must be taken with a pinch of salt. But the debate about the cost and nature of this attack is urgent. And let’s be clear, this war isn’t ending anytime soon.

On 4 March, US Congress turned their backs on peace and left Trump unchecked:

Not that the Iranians – who say they were stabbed in the back when the 28 February attack came amid fruitful talks – are in the mood to get back around the table:

Iranian deputy foreign minister Esmail Baghaei explained the Iranian position at length on 4 March:

Trump in over his head

The Costs of War Project have been trying to estimate what the attack will cost the US taxpayer:

It’s much easier to say who the beneficiaries of the US-Iran war are going to be: arms firms.

The war is changing character, possibly due to depletion of ammunition stocks. US Democrats raised concerns on 4 March that:

 the US has been burning through interceptors to defend against ballistic missiles launched by Iran.

Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine acknowledged:

that concern, a person familiar with the matter said, even as he expressed confidence in stockpile levels in public.

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said the US was moving away from ‘stand-off’ weapons towards gravity-based bombs:

The Hill reported:

Hegseth noted that the U.S. had largely been using standoff munitions — such as cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles fired from ships or ground positions — in the campaign so far.

Hegseth said:

More bombers, fighters are arriving just today. And now with complete control of the skies, we will be using 500-pound, 1000-pound and 2000-pound GPS-and-laser-guided precision gravity bombs, which we have a nearly unlimited stockpile.

Gravity bombs are a more conventional form of munition which is dropped from an aircraft rather than fired. B-2’s will arrive at a UK airbase within days on their way to Iran. The UK’s role deepens by the day.

This never works

Professor Robert Pape, a highly-regarded American expert on air warfare, posted on X:

Pape told Time magazine on 3 March:

In announcing the goal of regime change through air power alone, President Trump is up against the weight of history. Not just Iran, but the weight of history. For over a century, states—including the United States, European states, Russia, and Israel—have tried to topple regimes with air power alone. It has never—and I’m choosing my words carefully—it has never worked.

You can read his Substack or listen to more of his analysis here:

As this domestically unpopular war expands rapidly without a plan, the costs in lives and dollars will expand too. Experts insist Trump has chosen the wrong tactic in using air power. A shift to old-fashioned bombs hints at depletion of stock. Meanwhile, the Iranians understandably say they consider this an existential war.

Featured image via the Canary