Trump Is Claiming Victory, Even As What Exactly America Won Remains Unclear

WASHINGTON — Even as President Donald Trump declares a victory in his war against Iran, what precisely the United States has won remains unclear, while the purported loser may be better off in key respects than it was 40 days ago.

“The world has just witnessed a historically swift and successful military triumph,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt proclaimed at a press briefing on Wednesday.

“Operation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield, a capital ‘V’ military victory,” Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said at the Pentagon.

While the 39 days of air assaults by the United States destroyed much of Iran’s air force, navy and missile and drone capability, the war Trump launched without consulting either allies or Congress has ended — or has at least paused — with little clarity. Iran’s hard-line theocracy is still intact and still in possession of its enriched uranium. Seizing that was one of the many and various reasons Trump has given for waging the war. Further, there is not even a consensus on the terms of the ceasefire.

“It’s not at all clear what was agreed at this point,” said Mona Yacoubian, an Iran analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “No clear consensus on which of the 10 points both sides agree on, noting that the proposal is Iran’s.”

John Bolton, one of Trump’s first-term national security advisers and a longtime Iran critic, said he’s not sure there is even a temporary deal in place. “There really isn’t a ceasefire agreement yet. Too much is still disputed,” he said.

At the heart of the confusion is what exactly Iran agreed it would give up in return for an end to the war. Trump himself referred to a “10-point plan” that Iran put forward that he called “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

Iran’s plan, however, included provisions such as retaining control of and the right to monetize the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of all US sanctions that had been placed on the country over two decades and a promise by the US never to attack again.

Trump and his aides quickly claimed that wasn’t the 10-point plan Trump meant, but a different plan that Iran had proposed, one more to Trump’s liking. Leavitt on Wednesday also said reporters should ignore statements coming from Iran entirely. “What Iran says publicly or feeds to all of you in the press is much different than what they communicate to the United States, the president and his team privately,” she said.

She would not elaborate or, for example, explain how, on the one hand, Trump could demand a “COMPLETE” opening of the strait on Tuesday evening but then tell ABC News Wednesday morning that he would be amenable to a “joint venture” with Iran to levy tolls on ships passing through, with both countries profiting.

Demanding money for passage through an ocean waterway — as Iran has been doing for weeks at Hormuz ― is unprecedented and flies in the face of the concept of freedom of navigation for commerce, which the United States has defended since its founding.

“When things are all over, I don’t think there will be much in the plus column except weakening their military for the moment,” said Jim Townsend, who has worked at both the Pentagon and Nato and is now with the Center for a New American Security.

Robert Kagan, a State Department veteran of the Reagan administration, said Trump did not merely fail to accomplish his claimed goals, but actually harmed American interests.

“The US is objectively worse off than before we started the war. Iran has gotten international sanction to charge tolls and control passage through the strait. Iran will use this to insist on sanction relief from any nation that wishes to use the strait. It will be backed in this by Russia and China. Iran has not conceded on enrichment. I don’t see how Trump stops Russia and China from replenishing Iran’s weapons supply,” he said. “China has become a major player in the Gulf in a way that it has never been before. The fact that we are negotiating on the basis of Iran’s 10-point plan is a sure sign of defeat.”

Trita Parsi, an Iranian native and an analyst with the anti-interventionist Quincy Institute, said the ambiguity of the war’s ending questions the wisdom of why Trump even started it or didn’t just simply declare victory after three days of attacks and walk away.

“He would undoubtedly have been in a better position if he had ended the war on March 3 or had not started the war in the first place,” Parsi said.

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