Trump tries desperately to please both oil execs and Israel

Trump’s illegal and unprovoked attack on Iran is having a massive impact on oil and gas prices.

On 9 March, US president Donald Trump tried convincing the markets that his ‘Israel first’ war was “very complete” and would end “very soon”. The problem, which he does not see, is that you can’t please Israel AND the markets at the same time.

Iran, meanwhile, is intent on placing full blame for the price rises on the US and Israel, and pushing them to the point where they seriously regret waging this war of choice.

There’s no easy way out

Since 28 February, US-Israeli attacks have killed 1,255 people in Iran and injured 12,000. This includes an attack on a school which killed 165 schoolgirls that media investigations say the US was likely responsible for.

The offensive has set in motion a new Israeli invasion of Lebanon, killing around 400 people, including dozens of children.

As one might expect from a country committing genocide since 2023, human rights groups have documented Israel’s use of white phosphorus munitions against residential areas in southern Lebanon this past week.

Trump, meanwhile, has been laughing about unnecessarily attacking an Iranian ship that wasn’t posing a threat.

The attacks and attitudes of the US and Israel haven’t just upended the rules of war. Any effort to resume negotiations would be meaningless, as Iran’s foreign minister has said:

This suggests that Iran wants to ensure an eventual ceasefire doesn’t simply provide more time for the US and Israel prepare for another attack. As author Trita Parsi has insisted, Iran will:

likely demand some significant steps in order to accept a ceasefire… [and] likely require sanctions relief and release of its frozen funds abroad

Iran’s position has made it’s position clear – it won’t take instructions or bow to the demands of these aggressors.

As foreign minister Abbas Araghchi has asserted, there will be a “quagmire” unless there are significant concessions from the US and Israel.

Catastrophe brews

Araghchi has clarified that Iran is “not preventing” oil tankers from navigating the important Strait of Hormuz, whose traffic the US-Israeli assault has impacted significantly. Iran’s government has just called for waters and territories surrounding the country not to participate in US-Israeli attacks.

Iran also wants diplomatic consequences for the US and Israel in exchange for full movement in the strait:

As Trita Parsi suggested, Trump is clearly feeling the heat and trying to calm markets and prepare a path to retreat that doesn’t make him look a total failure. He knows how unpopular his war of choice is, gaining support only playing well with far-right warhawks, including Israeli war criminals.

In the US, only 29% of people support the illegal war. US allies in Gulf dictatorships, meanwhile, are very annoyed because Iran has responded by attacking US assets in their countries. And in the UK, the right-wing Labour government may be dancing to Trump’s tune, but 59% of people oppose his war and 67% are anti-Trump.

Even German chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has supported the US-Israeli war, has said:

there is apparently no common plan for how this war can be brought to a swift and convincing end.

Trump’s strategy isn’t working, and won’t

Trump is clearly a mess. He’s desperate to end the calamitous war of choice as soon as possible – particularly because of the oil chaos. But he also hates losing. So he has been doubling down on his undiplomatic tough talk, which is unlikely to spark any good will in Iran. The US, he insisted, will hit Iran “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” if it:

does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz

He added that the US would:

make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them

Considering that the US and Israel are nuclear powers and Iran isn’t, any threat like the above is serious. But further mass destruction in Iran would only spark much greater resistance to Trump’s regime back home.

The more Trump delays in ending the war, meanwhile, the greater the cost will be to the US. And Iran is in no mood to keep costs down or make it easy for him. So he needs to make a decision. What’s more important to him: bringing oil prices down, or serving Israel’s genocidal warmongers? Because he can’t have both.

Featured image via the Canary