UK commitment to war and capitalism could make 250k people jobless in 2027

A global accounting giant and an economic forecasting firm say the war in Iran could see 250,000 people lose their jobs in 2027. The math is simple: the ruling class wages war and makes money, and workers carry the costs. Professional services giant Deloitte and economic forecasters at EY Item Club delivered their warning on 20 April.

Iran: economic blowback

The Guardian reported:

The EY Item Club also expects unemployment to hit 5.8% by the middle of 2027, up from the current five-year high of 5.2%, with almost 250,000 more people losing their jobs because of the crisis in the Middle East.

Adding:

If the forecast is correct, that would increase the number of jobseekers from 1.87 million now to more than 2.1 million.

Meanwhile, EY Item Club economist Matt Swannell said:

Spiralling energy costs and disruption to supply chains will push the UK to the brink of a technical recession in the middle of this year.

Consumers’ spending power will be squeezed, while more expensive financing arrangements and a less certain global economic backdrop will pour cold water on companies’ investment plans.

Deloitte’s head economist Ian Stewart told the Guardian:

Finance leaders are coping with high levels of external uncertainty and their focus is on managing risks from geopolitics, rising energy prices and higher financing costs,” said Ian Stewart, the chief economist at Deloitte UK.

‘Cost control’ = job cuts

The newspaper reported:

When asked about the consequences of adverse geopolitical developments over the next three years, the top three concerns among CFOs were energy costs (61%), inflation and interest rates (61%) and an increase in cyber-attacks (60%).

Stewart said:

Rarely in the last 16 years have UK CFOs been more focused on cost control than today.

He said the current “challenging environment”:

is prompting CFOs to scale back expectations for margins and sharpen their focus on cost reduction and cash conservation.

Adding:

The immediate priority for finance leaders is to strengthen balance sheets in the face of external headwinds.

Let’s translate this into plain English…

The foreign policy decisions – notably around Iran – of Trump and Starmer are coming home to roost. And the victims of any downturn aren’t going to be millionaires and billionaires. Hard-pressed workers will be hit to “strengthen balance sheets” in the “face” of “external headwinds”. That is to say, their jobs could be cut to keep the  bank accounts of the wealthy swollen.

Any sensible political party would push against this. But none of the big parties is likely to…

People say British mainstream politicians are impossible to tell apart. That charge is essentially true. The fact is they all align on having an aggressive foreign policy and a commitment to free market capitalism.

Some would say foreign policy doesn’t figure in domestic elections – especially council elections. But these are not normal times. Faced with rising fascism, there are few electoral alternatives to the brutal free market capitalism and forever wars which produce it. Yet they do exist. Local council elections are on 7 May 2026. You can find out about eligibility, ID requirements and register to vote here.

Featured image via the Canary

By Joe Glenton

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