US strikes on Iran are a stress test for regional alliances

The US and Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran has led to retaliatory strikes across the Arabian Gulf. The Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – are caught in a nexus partially of their own making as imperial ties threaten to pull the region apart.

Arguably, the right to self-defence, enshrined in international law is one thing. However the use of excessive force, risks isolating Iran and undermining its cause.

Strike on Iran means gloves are off

Unlike the largely contained and bruising 12-day war in 2025, this time Iran’s gloves are off. Responding to US strikes, its government launched attacks on Arab Gulf countries hosting US assets. So far, these states—many of which Iran claims are ‘allies’ — are resisting being pulled into the ring of fire. However, the flames of war are fanning out in their direction.

Dubai International Airport, terminal three to be precise, suffered an Iranian drone attack. The government has issued an emergency alert to all civilians, urging them to ‘seek immediate shelter.’ Thousands of passengers, whose flights were cancelled, remain stranded in the airport. The airport is now thrust into the theatre of war:

The path of mutual destruction

Earlier today, an Iranian missile targeted the headquarters of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain. Another missile struck Dubai’s Fairmont Hotel located in the upscale Palm Jumeirah, which caught fire. Kuwait’s International Airport was targeted by a drone strike, grounding both departures and arrivals until further notice. Meanwhile, in Jordan, Iranian missiles were intercepted. Similarly, in Iraq, drones targeting the US consulate and the International Airport were also shot down.

The stress test of regime durability

Tehran’s leadership has maintained its innocence, with officials and aligned commentators justifying these actions through the logic of self-defense — like a defiant child caught with its hand in the candy jar. Sacrificing its allies to save itself is a dangerous tango. It is one that may not end US strikes. In other words, it could be cutting off its nose to spite its face.

If self-defense — both as rationale and military strategy — is reliant on the spread of terror and military tactics that risk civilian lives, Iran is purposely dragging the region into quicksand—escalation by de-escalation, promoting the proliferation of war. The millions of Arabs who have survived war and established roots in the Gulf — not just recently, but over decades—are unlikely to agree. And can you blame them?

In an interview with NBC News, Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, said

Nobody has any record of any aggression by us against our neighbours in the past 200 years.

The irony is clearly lost on him.

No appetite for war

However, the slew of stern statements issued by these neighbours, reeling from intense retaliatory strikes and the resulting state of emergency, suggests that Aragchi is leading audiences astray. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, among others, have condemned the barrage of attacks as an attack on their sovereignty. The message is clear – Arab countries will not bow to Iran’s pressure campaign.

Even across Lebanon and Iraq, Iran’s proxies, despite condemning Trump’s unprovoked strikes, are yet to mobilise their personnel. They appear to be keeping a low profile, fearful, it may seem, of possible blowback, with their own survival in mind.

With few options for pushback, Iran is swinging the bat, and excusing its actions as targeting “legitimate targets on military sites”. The videos circling on social media tell a different story.

Iran won’t relent until the “enemy” is defeated – it officials have repeatedly warned. But at what cost? America is equally misguided if it thinks that leadership decapitation and military aggression will result in a ‘happy ever after’. Iraq is a case in point.

A sustained war, feared by all — mostly civilian populations who have already survived war once, twice, or thrice, in some cases – is becoming an increasingly likely, though terrifying prospect. It will test regime durability irrespective of the regional earthquake it will set in motion, and place the Middle East on a warpath.

Featured image via the Canary