What Does The Iran War Mean For Tehran’s Ally Putin?

The US and Israel’s joint strikes on Iran will have sent ripples across Russia as Donald Trump targets one of Vladimir Putin’s international allies.

Iran previously supplied Russia with crucial weapons for its war in Ukraine and offered support at a time when Putin remains isolated on the world stage.

But, as attention shifts away from Russia’s grinding offensive in Ukraine and refusal to compromise in peace talks, the emerging conflict in the Middle East could end up working to Putin’s advantage.

Here’s what you need to know.

The US-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday, and his immediate successor was taken out in a subsequent attack.

Putin denounced it as “murder … committed in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law” in a statement on the Kremlin’s website.

Though the Iranian regime has not completely collapse just yet, the strikes have weakened Tehran.

The strikes also came months after another ally, Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, was kidnapped by US authorities, and more than a year after Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by opposition forces.

All three leaders had ties to Putin’s regime.

According to geopolitical expert and partner of the international law firm Pillsbury, Matthew Oresman, Russia is now “in a worse position today than it was a week ago”.

He told HuffPost UK: “Iran was a major supporter of Russia, including providing significant military equipment and other support for its war in Ukraine – it has now lost this.”

Similarly, Chatham House’s associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia programme, Keir Giles, said Russia will be “dismayed” after the “severe embarrassment” of an ally.

Iran has been providing Russia with weapons to use against Ukraine, meaning the strikes could cause significant disruption to Putin’s offensive.

But Dr Simon Bennett – director of the civil safety and security unit at the University of Leicester – said Moscow was already weaning itself off Iranian supplied weapons and manufacturing its own Shahed drones.

Bennett told HuffPost UK: “Whatever economic and diplomatic support Russia was providing the Khamenei regime can now be redeployed in support of his war on Ukraine.”

Iran was also a rival source of oil for Putin, who lost many European customers over his attack on Ukraine as governments slapped sanctions on the authoritarian.

If Iran’s own supplies become inaccessible, “Putin’s depleted coffers will be replenished by rising oil and gas prices,” Bennett pointed out.

“As the coffers fill, Putin will be able to further develop Russia’s war economy and intensify his assault on Ukraine.”

Giles said Putin would also benefit from the “US reducing its own munitions’ supply” with its attack on Iran – thus reducing the likelihood it could go after Russia.

Trump’s focus appears to be on the Middle East right now, allowing Russia to continue with its war of attrition away from the spotlight.

Oresman said: “The US is now distracted by the Iranian conflict, which limits its ability to focus on Ukraine or provide it military support.

“The US certainly won’t commit to any aggressive attack on Russia now, given its stretched resources and the Trump administration’s foreign policy.

“Putin may even be thinking that the US will be more inclined to rush a peace deal on Ukraine just to free up the resources and attention.”

But as Giles noted, the strikes may have put Putin’s long-term plans under strain.

The strikes “torpedoed the ‘spheres of interest’ idea”, which was thought to interest both Trump and Putin.

The concept suggests the US, Russia and China would agree to divide the world up into their own areas of influences.

But, the Middle East did not appear to be part of the US’s planned areas, suggesting Trump has already exceeded his boundaries.

Putin is known to detest everything Europe stands for – and this war has highlighted the continent’s limitations.

Bennett said: “Britain’s inability to defend its overseas assets – witness the RAF’s inability to shoot down a slow-flying drone before it impacted the runway at Akrotiri [in Cyprus] – will confirm Putin’s view that western Europe is militarily weak and there for the taking. And he’s not wrong.”

He said the UK only has six destroyers and seven frigates right now, but it needs dozens of both if it were ever to fight Russia.

Europe’s split response to the strikes on Iran will have delighted the Kremlin, too, with Spain and the UK calling the war “unlawful”, while Germany appears to stand by the White House.

Giles also told HuffPost UK it makes sense why “Russia is now being so vocal about international law” right now after Khamenei’s death.

There is an international arrest warrant out for Putin, which stops him from travelling to certain countries – so he will relish any opportunity to call out supposed double standards.

Ukraine is likely be in two minds over the conflict in Iran.

On one hand, it must be “soul-destroying to see European allies willing to do for Israel what they won’t do for Ukraine”, according to Giles, who said it shows once again that Kyiv “is low in the pecking order”.

To make matters worse, Europe’s ability to supply Ukraine with weapons and America’s ability to sell military devices to the Europe for Kyiv may also be impacted by the war.

But Giles added that a US distraction is “not necessarily a bad thing” for Ukraine.

Trump has falsely blamed Kyiv for holding up talks and pushed the country to give up more land in the name of peace.

A delay, while prolonging the conflict on the frontlines, might therefore take the pressure off.

Russia is not looking to aggravate the US, according to the experts, pointing to the way Putin did not even mention Trump with his condemnation of Khamenei’s killing.

Oresman said Putin is in a “wait and see” mode, adding: “I don’t expect Putin to make any big moves in the near term, preferring to wait to see if the Iranian situation creates an opportunity for Russia to gain leverage in [Ukraine] negotiations.”

Giles said Russia could assist Iran in retaliation – but then it would be in the conflict with the US, and Putin is keen to keep Trump on side.

He said that, just as China is “sitting back and watching” what unfolds in Ukraine, Russia is doing the same when it comes to Iran.