Why the Gorton * Denton By-Election Result Matters

Some by-elections are remembered for decades – think Oxford 1938 – Orpington 1962, Glasgow Hillhead 1981 – and others fade into obscurity almost as soon as the result is declared.

Watching Labour representatives on the media this morning try to dismiss this as a normal result and just a case of mid-term blues has been part hilarious and part tragic.  They just don’t get it. The political sands are shifting.

One by-election doesn’t necessarily signify a major change, but this one does have some major consequences. It may not signal anything new, but it does reflect some existing trends, and those are trends that Labour would be well to think about quite deeply. The trouble is, the prime minister shows no sign of doing so. His interview with Sam Coates on Sky News was the same old Airport. He just trotted out the same old lines. It seemed that he was angry with voters for failing to recognise his own brilliance. Not a good look. It was just like PMQs. He failed to engage with any question asked of him and instead just trotted out the same, tired, pre-prepared mantras which anyone watching can see through. Labour MPs will have watched this interview from behind their sofas.

So why is the result of this by-election important, and why may future electoral historians look back on it as a by-election of some consequence? Firstly, as Ben Riley-Smith has pointed out, this is the first by-election modern history where neither the Labour Party nor the Conservative Party has featured in the top two. It is further evidence that not only two party politics is at an end, but we are entering a period where we have to factor in five parties, or six in Wales and Scotland. This fact will be further reenforced in May’s elections. And if Your Party were to ever get its act together, we could be looking at six or seven party politics. This is a political game-changer, if only because it renders traditional political polling and constituency predictions almost irrelevant in our first past the post electoral system.

The Greens had never polled above ten per cent in any UK by- election. In Gorton and Denton they scored more than 40 per cent. There are several factors that explain this. They ran a superb campaign, they managed to tap into sectarian politics in a way that Labour, and to an extent, the LibDems have done in some areas in the past. The video they did in Urdu was shameful, but hugely effective. When Zack Polanski was running for the leadership of The Greens he told me he wanted to be the populist left wing equivalent of Nigel Farage, and that has dominated his strategy since he was elected in September. And boy has it worked. Just as Reform and Nigel Farage proved to the nemesis of the Conservative Party, Polanski and the Greens may well emulate that role and do the same for Labour.

Another factor in the Green victory was their candidate Hannah Spencer. Bright, breezy, human, real, she was a dream candidate for a by-election. She batted off all attacks as if she were made of Teflon and proved to made of stern stuff. Labour’s candidate, Angeliki Stogia, was not a bad candidate, but she was always on a hiding to nothing. She exuded optimism and displayed a good sense of humour, and wasn’t hidden away from the media like most Labour by-election candidates usually are. She didn’t put a drag on the Labour campaign – that was the role of the national party. Labour tried to make it a Labour versus Reform fight, but failed. It never was.

Reform’s candidate Matthew Goodwin, or “Matt” as he now likes to bill himself, was a perfect example of how a candidate can put a drag on a campaign. I remember being bemused by his selection, given he has never knowingly smiled on camera or given any sign of having a sense of humour. He is the political equivalent of a Vulcan. Dr Spock would have voted for him, but he proved alien to the ordinary folk of Gorton & Denton. In short, he failed to connect.

This is the second by-election in a row where Reform have flattered to deceive. In Caerphilly, they expected to win and then came a poor second to Plaid Cymru. In Gorton & Denton, in what was billed as too close to call, they polled twelve points behind Labour. Admittedly their 28.7 per cent vote share was 15 points up on the general election, but it does add fuel to the theory that they have a ceiling of 30 per cent in an average constituency.

Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats lost their deposits, scoring only 1.9 and 1.8 per cent respectively. Each party decided to sit this one out, so they were never likely to do very well, but even so, it’s an embarrassing performance, especially for the Conservatives, given it was their worst by-election performance in history. The LibDems have sometimes done well in by-elections in seats like this but they seem to have made a decision to cede the protest vote part of the electorate to Reform and the Greens. This may prove to be a strategic mistake in the long term.

Perhaps the biggest mistake that Labour made was blocking Andy Burnham from standing. I doubt very much whether he would have retained the seat, despite his undoubted popularity, but if he had fought it and lost, that would have stopped his leadership ambitions in their tracks. Keir Starmer, even in defeat, would have had a silver lining. As it stands, all he faces is the May elections, after which he faces the prospect of political oblivion and/or a leadership challenge.