Why The Makerfield By-Election Is The Most Important In Living Memory

It isn’t just the names of the 14 candidates which are on the ballot paper as voters in Makerfield go to the polls today.

The fate of the prime minister is also in the hands of the seat’s 77,000 constituents as they decide who should represent them at Westminster.

That is why the by-election is the most important in British politics in living memory.

It was triggered by sitting MP Josh Simon’s extraordinary decision to voluntarily stand down to give Andy Burnham the chance to become an MP again after a nine year absence.

The Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, who has twice tried and failed to become the party’s leader, has made no secret of his ambition to become prime minister should he see off the challenge of Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon.

Two weeks ago, during a special Makerfield edition of the BBC’s Question Time, he confirmed the worst kept secret in politics by admitting he will join any leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer in No.10.

Wes Streeting – who quit as health secretary in protest at the PM’s leadership after Labour were thrashed in the local elections on May 7 – has already confirmed that he could launch his own bid for the top job within days.

That means that, should Burnham emerge triumphant in the early hours of Friday morning, the clock will start ticking down on Starmer’s exit from Downing Street less than two years after he led Labour to a landslide general election victory.

According to every opinion poll which has been published during the month-long by-election campaign, Burnham is on course to win.

That would obviously be good news for him, as well as a massive relief for the Labour Party in a seat they have held since it was formed more than 40 years ago.

And while Starmer would have to go through the motions of congratulating his leadership rival, he would also know that it would virtually guarantee that he will shortly become a former prime minister.

Labour MPs terrified by the very real threat posed by Reform to their political futures will see in Burnham a potential saviour.

Because be in no doubt, with Nigel Farage’s party continuing to lead in the national opinion polls and the government plumbing new depths of unpopularity, no other Labour candidate could have won the seat.

Quite simply, the clamour in the Parliamentary Labour Party for Burnham to replace Starmer as prime minister will be irresistible.

While Starmer may well be right when he says a Labour leadership election over the summer would mean “chaos” for the country, and is genuine in his determination to fight any challenge, the political reality is that it is a contest he is bound to lose.

Despite Streeting’s insistence that he has the support of enough Labour MPs to throw his own hat into the ring, the most likely outcome would be a coronation for Burnham, possibly even before MPs go on their summer recess next month.

Starmer would much rather Burnham took a job in his government and bided his time.

The vanishingly small chance of that happening was extinguished on Wednesday afternoon when sources in Burnham’s camp made it clear he would reject any such offer.

But the Makerfield result will not just throw up existential questions for the prime minister.

If, as expected, Reform fail for the second by-election in a row following the Green Party’s triumph in Gorton and Denton, Farage will also have a lot of explaining to do.

All things being equal, Makerfield – where two-thirds of voters backed Brexit a decade ago and Reform won all eight council wards on May 7 – should have been a shoo-in for the party.

The choice of “plucky plumber” Robert Kenyon as their candidate was a huge gamble, given what they must surely have known about his social media history. Unless there is a massive upset, it is a gamble which will have failed.

The level of support for Restore Britain, the even more right-wing party led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, will also be worth watching.

Anything above 7% will suggest that Farage is facing a growing challenge on his right flank, in much the same way as he inflicted huge damage on the Tories when he himself was leader of Ukip.

Whatever the result, Britain will wake up to a very different political landscape on Friday morning, and things will not be the same again.

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