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2 Bold Vikings Predictions Bubble to the Surface

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T.J. Hockenson celebrates a touchdown with Justin Jefferson during a Vikings game against the Bengals.
Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson celebrates with wide receiver Justin Jefferson after a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals at U.S. Bank Stadium. During the Sept. 21, 2025, contest in Minneapolis, the Vikings leaned on two of their premier offensive playmakers as the passing attack continued producing points in an early-season matchup. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.

The Minnesota Vikings don’t start training camp until the end of July, and until then, NFL-focused media outlets are making bold predictions about the purple team and its peers.

SI.com‘s Conor Orr publishes such prognostications every summer, and this go-around for Minnesota, he picked Carson Wentz to start more games than J.J. McCarthy and Minnesota to exceed its Vegas win total of 8.5.

McCarthy Pressure Builds around Minnesota’s Summer Plan

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Carson Wentz (11) speaks during a media session at Sport Ireland Campus ahead of Minnesota’s international showcase. On Sept. 26, 2025, in Dublin, Ireland, Wentz addressed reporters as the Vikings continued preparations for their overseas appearance, drawing attention as one of the club’s veteran quarterbacks during a busy week abroad. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Orr’s Two Predictions

Orr began at quarterback, writing, “J.J. McCarthy will start fewer games than Carson Wentz. All three Vikings quarterbacks — Wentz, McCarthy and Kyler Murray — will play at some point this season. Murray will get the lion’s share of snaps while Wentz steps in during a critical two-game late-season stretch to keep Minnesota’s playoff hopes alive.”

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And for the win forecast, he opined, “The Vikings will surpass their current projected Vegas win total. Topping 8.5 wins feels manageable for a team that finished last year with nine wins despite a markedly worse quarterback situation. In fact, I’m bold enough to say that this team will have four wins by its Week 6 bye.”

It’s a pair of bittersweet, perhaps contrasting, theories.

An Awful Look for McCarthy

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If McCarthy plays fewer games than Wentz, something will have gone really, really wrong. Foremost, it could be that the Vikings elevated Wentz to the QB2 job, which would be an utterly terrible look for McCarthy’s career trajectory — if he can’t win a backup quarterback job over a guy who’s a few years from retirement.

Or — the prediction could insinuate that McCarthy gets hurt again after suffering a torn meniscus, high ankle sprain, concussion, and broken hand through two NFL seasons. McCarthy has missed 73% of Vikings games due to injury.

Even if Murray establishes himself as Minnesota’s QB1 in 2026, McCarthy’s endgame cannot be Wentz playing more snaps. It would put McCarthy on borrowed time in Minnesota.

Nine Wins or More Checks Out

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On the other hand, Orr’s second bold prediction is a little ironic and bittersweet. He expects the Vikings to win nine games or more — they finished 9-8 last year despite showcasing the NFL’s fifth-worst quarterback production per EPA/Play — while oddsmakers believe Minnesota will finish 8-9 or 9-8.

Having Wentz play more games than McCarthy but the Vikings still finishing with a winning record would either be a re-run of 2025 or feature a Minnesota club that is playoff-bound. Fans would prefer the latter.

Also, the Vikings boast one of the NFL’s top defenses, led by Brian Flores, who has marshaled a Top 3 defense since he arrived in Minneapolis three years ago. The working theory suggests that if that trend continues while Murray, McCarthy, or Wentz deliver average-or-better quarterback efficiency, the sky is the limit.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray answers questions from reporters following OTA practice at the TCO Performance Center. On May 27, 2026, in Eagan, Minnesota, Murray discussed his transition to Minnesota, collaboration with J.J. McCarthy, and developing chemistry with wide receiver Jauan Jennings as offseason workouts continued. Mandatory Credit: YouTube

Orr basically thinks the Vikings will be good, and very little McCarthy will be needed.

Essentially Sports‘ Luke Hubbard predicted the Vikings to finish with a 7-10 record last week and opined, “I don’t not like the Minnesota Vikings’ roster, but I don’t love it either. It all starts at quarterback. As fun as Kyler Murray could be, there’s a reason Arizona let him go.”

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“He’s dealt with a ton of injuries, and when he’s been on the field, he hasn’t been all that great. And we all know J.J. McCarthy isn’t the answer. If they had a quarterback, they would feel like a bubble team, but without above-average quarterback play, they’ll miss the playoffs by quite a few games.”

Other Bold Stuff from Orr

Orr, sadly, also picked the Detroit Lions to win the NFC North. He explained, “One of the most underrated aspects of a team’s schedule, in my opinion, is the runway with which to build momentum. That momentum overpowers the basic fact that many of those wins were against opponents that the team should have beaten. Those wins create a false confidence those teams carry with them into more neutral matchups or matchups in which a team should be considered an underdog.”

“I love the beginning of the Lions’ slate, even if Detroit has all of its road divisional games over the final weeks of the season. My thought: If the Lions can bank four wins from their opening stretch against the Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers and Cardinals, they will be in a much better position to lose ground later in the season in Green Bay or Chicago.”

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Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) embraces Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) following a hard-fought NFC North matchup at Ford Field. On Nov. 2, 2025, in Detroit, Michigan, McCarthy celebrated the Vikings’ 27-24 victory after a competitive divisional contest that carried significant implications in the conference standings. Mandatory Credit: Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Sportsbooks agree, with the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears fighting for second place in the division, but the Vikings stuck in last.

Vikings training camp, the next major step in the summer, is about eight weeks away.


Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker

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