2026 Bemont Stakes: Expert’s picks, fades, longshots and more

Picking a winner for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes seems simple. After all, Golden Tempo is coming off a win in the Kentucky Derby. In that race, he beat four rivals whom he will see again on Saturday. And the Beyer Speed Figure he earned in Louisville, Ky., five weeks ago is tied for the highest last-out speed figure of any horse in the Belmont.

If handicapping horses were only that simple.

In fact, Golden Tempo is a bad bet for the Belmont at Saratoga Race Course and is exactly the kind of horse that professional bettors salivate over fading. Instead, there are more intriguing options that offer better value in the final leg of the Triple Crown. Bet the Belmont at TwinSpires, where you can use the promo code CBSSPORTS to get $400 in bonus bets, double what’s available to the general public:

Why Golden Tempo is a must fade

There are two main reasons why the Derby winner is a play-against: pace and odds.

In the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago, Golden Tempo got a dream pace setup. In that 18-horse field, 10 horses entered having led or were within 1 3/4 lengths of the lead at the first call in their most recent start. The result was an incendiary pace meltdown in the Derby in which the top three finishers — Golden Tempo, Renegade and Ocelli — were last, fourth to last and second to last, respectively.

By contrast, the nine-horse Belmont Stakes field features a dearth of speed horses. The horse with the highest TimeformUS early pace figure (111), Powershift, has never set the pace in his three career starts. In fact, the nine horses in the Belmont have combined for 41 career starts, and only once has a horse set the pace (Ottinho in a maiden race on Dec. 31).

The projected slow early pace does not suit Golden Tempo, a dead closer who has been either last or next to last in all five of his career starts. To be fair, he has won races before with slow early paces, but those victories did not come against the quality of rivals he will see on Saturday.

In addition, the expected odds on Golden Tempo make him an unattractive play. After going off at 23-1 in the Kentucky Derby, he is listed at 9-2 on the morning line for the Belmont Stakes. And there’s a good chance that he will leave the starting gate shorter than that. Casual bettors love putting their money on popular storylines, and Cherie DeVaux becoming the first woman to train a Kentucky Derby winne — as well as the media blitz that followed the race — have made her and the horse overnight sensations.

Could Golden Tempo win the Belmont Stakes? Sure. But he’ll need another pace meltdown that he’s not likely to get, and Golden Tempo believers will get less than 20% of the payout that they got five weeks ago in Louisville. Bet or fade Golden Tempo with the TwinSpires promo code CBSSPORTS, which gives new users $400 in bonus bets, double the standard offer:

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Revisiting the Kentucky Derby

With five of the nine horses in the Belmont Stakes coming out of the Kentucky Derby, handicapping the Belmont requires looking back at the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Golden Tempo (first by a neck)
He showed no speed early and raced last of the 18, started picking up steam around the far turn, swung out wide at the top of the stretch and outkicked Renegade down the lane, getting up just before the wire. Relative to the other horses in the field, Golden Tempo got a clean trip and an enormous pace setup. Without one of those, a very strong case can be made that he doesn’t win the blanket of roses.

Renegade (second by a neck)
His rough trip in the Kentucky Derby has been well documented. Leaving from the dreaded No. 1 post, Renegade was pointed to the right by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. out of the gate, got bumped and then knocked almost sideways in the first sixteenth of a mile. But the early trouble may have benefited him as it prevented him from getting dragged into the hot early pace. Like Golden Tempo, Renegade made his move around the far turn, swung out wide at the top of the stretch and rallied strongly down the lane, beaten only by Golden Tempo.

But because of Renegade’s well publicized trouble in the Derby, there is a possibility that he will be overbet in the Belmont Stakes.

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Chief Wallabee (fourth by 3 lengths)
He was just 3 3/4 lengths off the brutal three-quarter mile pace (1:10.90), and just as he was trying to split horses in the stretch, he was bumped, ending all chances of victory. To his credit, he kept running to finish just 3 lengths back of Golden Tempo.

He was the only horse to be in the first 10 early to finish in the top four. For comparison, the top three finisher — Golden Tempo, Renegade and Ocelli — were 18th, 16th and 15th, respectively, after three-quarters of a mile.

With a much more favorable pace scenario in the Belmont Stakes, Chief Wallabee figures to have a big chance on Saturday.

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Commandment (seventh by 5 1/4 lengths)
The first mile of his Derby was largely uneventful; he raced at the back of the first pack of horses, about 10 lengths off the early lead, enjoying a clean trip. The pace meltdown should’ve have set up perfectly for his late kick, but down the stretch he didn’t show the kick he had shown at Gulfstream Park. Perhaps he was too close to a hot pace or perhaps he was just not good enough.

Commandment apologists say that he was bumped by Ocelli in the stretch, but Commandment’s trouble down the lane has been overblown. By that time, he was already beaten.

Emerging Market (10th by 7 3/4 lengths)
Arguably only Golden Tempo got a cleaner trip than Emerging Market in the Kentucky Derby. He broke sharply, raced in sixth early and had a chance to pounce on the early leaders at the top of the stretch but didn’t kick in and faded to 10th, losing by almost 8 lengths.

Trainer Chad Brown later revealed that the horse lost the shoe on his left front foot in the first turn. Also, Brown said jockey Flavien Prat positioning Emerging Market that close to the early pace was a strategy agreed upon by jockey and trainer prior to the race, based on how the Churchill Downs track had been playing all week. Brown admitted that was a mistake in hindsight.

So there are excuses to explain his 10th place finish.

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Who to bet in the Belmont Stakes

In the end, my most likely winner in the Belmont Stakes is Chief Wallabee. I think he was too close to the hot pace in the Kentucky Derby and will appreciate the much more favorable fractions in the Belmont much better. 

But in horse racing, there’s an important distinction between the horse to beat and the horse to bet. Just because Chief Wallabee is my “top pick” doesn’t automatically make him the one to bet. His odds may not reflect fair value.

So for the Belmont Stakes, I created a fair odds line. These are the odds that I would need to bet each horse in the race to win. My fair odds on Chief Wallabee is 3-1, which is exactly what his morning-line odds are. However, if his live odds drop below 3-1, I’ll pivot to another horse.

That alternative could be Powershift. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Powershift is coming off a win on the Kentucky Derby day undercard, which earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, the co-best highest last-race Beyer in the field.

Most importantly, he holds a key tactical edge over the rest of the field: He’s the projected lone speed horse in a race full of off-the-pace horses.