March has arrived, and with it, the greatest sporting event on the planet … but also the inevitable commotion that will come with the college basketball coaching carousel. A minimum of 40 coaches currently employed now will no longer be at their schools by the end of this month. That’s an unavoidable reality.

And with a sport of 365 schools, the number could easily hit 50. It’s soared past that number in recent years, as the chaos machine that is the transfer portal (combined with myriad factors that fluctuate NIL budgets across the country) has upped the pressure on coaches and players alike. It’s led to an industry that lacks patience but, come this time of year, rebirths optimism for what could be.

As long as you’ve got the millions to pay off the coach and start anew.

Last March/April we had 14 high-major coaching changes, the same number as in 2024, and then a 15th flipped in 2025 when Bruce Pearl handed the job to his son, Steven, last October. I don’t think we’re hitting 14 power-conference openings in 2026, but double-digit changeover at the Power Five level might be inescapable. To get a wide view of what’s vulnerable to change, I’ve built out a list of programs whose coaches are in the crosshairs at this point.

Some are much more likely to split than others, but all listed have at some point this season been the subject of significant speculation behind the scenes. Keep in mind, Kansas State is already open, therefore it’s not listed below.

Another plot point to acknowledge: At this stage, it sure doesn’t look like a top-20 job will come open in 2026. That’s a big change after the past five years worth of carousel cycles saw most of the big and/or blue blood programs undergo a switch.

There is no doubt here. Bobby Hurley is coaching out the string at Arizona State on the final year of his contract and will leave Tempe after 11 seasons. All told, Hurley is the second-best ASU coach in history both in terms of total wins and NCAA Tournament appearances (he made runs in 2018, 2019 and 2023). It’s time for a change, and agents in the industry have been bracing for the vacancy for essentially a year. The job might not be in the top half of power-conference programs, but even in spite of that, I get the sense this opening will attract some viable and interesting candidates due to having low-level expectations in a good location. 

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Earl Grant‘s time in Chestnut Hill is soon to be over after five seasons, four of them ending with a sub-.500 record. Boston College has been the black sheep of the ACC for 15-plus years; it’s in the wrong conference, and as a result, the program lost its juice long ago. It ranks among the five-or-so least desirable power-conference jobs out of the ~80 in the sport, but it can and will still draw someone on the upswing. Someone will believe they can be the hero and do something that hasn’t happened since 2009: coach the Eagles into the NCAA Tournament.

Thad Matta, a Butler alum, hasn’t been able to restore glory at Hinkle. BU has finished in the bottom third of the Big East ledger in all four of his seasons in Indianapolis. Matta just crossed the 500-win career mark a few games ago, a proper achievement for a coach whose best days will be linked to his time running Ohio State. Butler’s rapid 2010s ascent from Horizon League to Atlantic 10 to Big East was due to Brad Stevens running the program. News flash: He’s been gone 13 years, and Butler’s in need of some real juice just to be a factor in its own league, let alone being a national presence. I say it’s time to go find a fresh face and try and pounce while the Big East is down. 

There are some mixed signals at the moment over how firm the ground is under Wes Miller‘s feet in Cincinnati. The Bearcats haven’t been NCAA Tournament-good in any of Miller’s five seasons, a surprising development considering how robust and reliable Miller’s UNC Greensboro teams were in the final five seasons of his time there before getting the UC job in 2021. UC is 16-13 and still has a shot to make a run and win its way into the field, but it will take a home win over BYU on Tuesday for that to even become a possibility. It seems Miller’s chances at holding on seem a lot better now than they did a month ago, and the price (well north of $9 million if fired this month) might be a factor.

The noise surrounding this one has risen a lot in the past month, as the Yellow Jackets have dropped to the basement of the 18-team ACC. Damon Stoudamire is only in his third season, but the athletic director now (Ryan Alpert) is not the AD who hired Stoudamire in 2023. I think this one opens. GT has been outside of the KenPom top 100 in all three of Stoudamire’s seasons. It’s a lower-end ACC job in a really good location. How much can it compete in NIL in 2026? A resourceful hire is vital just to get Tech a shot at playing into the top half of the conference.

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This one is all about the money. My sources indicate Matt McMahon is more likely than not to keep this job for one more season. And yet: at 15-14, if LSU were to lose its final two games of the regular season and be one-and-done in the SEC bracket, a change could be on the table. But it would be expensive. LSU just spent tens of millions to fire Brian Kelly and hire Lane Kiffin on the football side, in addition to the support given to Kim Mulkey in women’s hoops. Multiple sources said firing McMahon and hiring a new staff and bringing on NIL assurances would amount to at least $25 million more in resources for men’s basketball. That’s going to be tough to endure. If I’m McMahon, maybe I try and get ahead of it all and see if there’s a mid-major parachute to cling onto. Otherwise, he’ll be given minimal support if he’s back for a fifth season in Baton Rouge.

It’s gotten dire in Bluff City. The Memphis Tigers are 12-17 and enduring their worst season this century, worsened all the more by being a non-factor in the 10th-ranked league in college hoops. Penny Hardaway has lost a vast majority of the fan base in his eighth season — and yet we are just one year removed from Memphis earning a 5-seed and winning 29 games. Wild. Hardaway has taken his alma mater to the NCAAs three times but has just one Big Dance win. I won’t be surprised if he’s back, but there is a case to be made that, with two years left on Hardaway’s deal, the program needs a full-on reboot before lethargy seeps in any further.

Porter Moser‘s situation has been ripe for speculation for much of this season. It doesn’t sound like Oklahoma has quietly gone to the search-firm level behind the scenes just yet. The Sooners are 15-14 and set to miss the NCAAs for the fourth time in five seasons on Moser’s watch, but he’s also never been outright bad: OU’s worst KenPom finish is 54th, and the program has been among the worst in the SEC in NIL support in Moser’s time there. The school just hired a new AD after the legendary, decade-long tenure of Joe Castiglione. There’s minimal investment from fans at this point, and Moser probably will find footing this year or next at a solid mid-major job if he seeks an out. If he sticks on for one more season, it will be non-negotiable that OU needs to make the NCAAs in 2027.

Jeff Capel has had eight seasons to try and right the ship at Pitt, but it surely has to be time. New AD Alan Greene has already had soft contact with potential replacements, sources said, so I’m thinking a formal announcement should be coming in the not-too-distant future. Pitt is going to have to pay a steep price to force Capel off campus (more than $10 million), but at this point, the program is like a lot of ACC schools that need a rejuvenation to end the stagnation. The Panthers have one NCAA tourney appearance (as an 11-seed) in Capel’s time, and last made the second weekend of the Big Dance in 2009. The wheels are spinning in place.

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The industry has been expecting Providence to open for close to two months at this point. Now, Kim English has a team that has top-four talent (and is believed to have a top-four budget) in the Big East. Maybe everything coalesces in Manhattan next week at the Big East Tournament. The Friars (14-15) have won three in a row and need to rally, though. Shy of a huge run, the job is expected to come open after just three seasons for English. If that happens, he’s is going be paid handsomely in the years to come, as his buyout is humongous. The fan base is vocal and has not been shy about its feelings on the matter, which has led to heat on AD Steve Napolillo as well.

The Orange are in danger of falling entirely off the college basketball map after three unimportant seasons under Red Autry. Most everyone tasked with tracking the job market in college basketball expects this one to come open not just because SU again failed to meet program expectations, but a change in athletic director (with the hire to be determined before March 10, I’m told) sparking all more the reason to begin anew. Jim Boeheim’s name and legacy still loom large here, but it’s time to find a fresh face outside the Syracuse family in order to give the program a jolt, lest it risk becoming just another average power-conference team.

Bad this year, but unlikely to change

Tad Boyle is on the record: He’s not retiring. The Buffaloes are 16-13 and at least better than the 14-21 squad from a year ago. I’m not sure when his time will be up, but Boyle’s pretty determined to make sure his last season in Boulder isn’t a bad one. At least the Buffs to this point have avoided being in the bottom four in the 16-team Big 12.

Ed Cooley is not walking away, and Georgetown can’t afford to fire him this year. The Hoyas are going to finish under .500 for the fifth time in seven years, though, and the 2026-27 campaign will see Cooley as a top-five hot-seat candidate. This program cannot revive itself, and that’s a sad state of affairs.

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Ducks coach Dana Altman told me over the weekend that he will not be retiring. Altman will turn 68 later this year. He’s overseeing a mess, as Oregon‘s 11-18 and headed toward its worst season since 2008-09 under Ernie Kent. Altman is also under no threat of being fired, so don’t expect Oregon to open, despite some curiosity on the agent side in recent weeks.

Steve Pikiell‘s agent negotiated one of the all-time one-sided contracts. Rutgers might dissolve as a university if it paid out the remainder of his contract: the school would be on the hook for more than $20 million. It doesn’t matter that 12-17 Rutgers has once again sunk into the dredges of high-major basketball; Pikiell will be back next season.

Lamont Paris has a significant buyout, and despite some behind-the-scenes snooping on potential candidates, I don’t think this one is coming open. The Gamecocks (12-17) will have back-to-back sub-.500 seasons, in addition to just 11 wins in Paris’ first year. Not unthinkable, but something drastic would need to force action here. 

Steve Forbes might try looking for an escape route, but he doesn’t have to at Wake Forest. The school can’t afford his buyout, so unless someone else wants Forbes, he’ll pull off an uncommon achievement by making it to Year 7 at a high-major program without an NCAA Tournament appearance. Also, Forbes is trying to make chicken salad with one of the ACC’s lowest NIL budgets in men’s basketball.

As we brace for the postseason, keep in mind that there is almost always, every year, an unexpected job pop that tosses the cycle into different directions. In 2025, Kevin Willard leaving Maryland for Villanova was one such example — and Darian DeVries bailing on West Virginia after a single season for Indiana was another. In 2024, John Calipari’s stunning exit from Kentucky to Arkansas wound up creating a cascading domino effect. In 2023, Bob Huggins was fired after the season. 

That in mind, know there’s a decent-or-better chance at least one school not listed above (and it could be due to a retirement or something else) winds up coming open and altering the dynamics of this year’s carousel cycle. Stay tuned, because it’s going to get noisy next week.