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2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, top contenders: Picks by expert who cashed in 22 Triple Crown races

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The 2026 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 2 at 6:57 p.m. ET from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., marking the beginning of Triple Crown season in horse racing. The 152nd Run for the Roses has Renegade listed as the favorite at 4-1 in the latest Kentucky Derby 2026 odds, and the horse is deserving of top billing after winning the Arkansas Derby. However, Renegade drawing the No. 1 inside post could push those betting on the Kentucky Derby to lean towards Further Ado (6-1), Commandment (6-1) or other contenders. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what’s available to the general public:

Should you back Renegade despite his starting position and connections having bad luck in the Derby? Would Further Ado, Commandment or another horse offer more value, or is there a longshot in the field you would be best served putting your bets on? Before locking in any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, you need to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing guru Jeff Hochman.

Hochman has shown a profit in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races. One example of his best picks was Big Brown in the 2008 Kentucky Derby at odds of 2-1. More recently, he swept the 2022 Triple Crown, capped off by Mo Donegal’s easy win in the Belmont Stakes. In 2023, he cashed the Preakness with National Treasure. In 2024, he successfully tabbed Straight No Chaser to win, place and show in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship at odds of 3-2.

Hochman delivered exceptional handicapping results during the summer 2025 racing season at two of the country’s premier tracks, Saratoga and Del Mar. His combined 65.7% win rate across the two tracks represents elite-level performance that significantly exceeds industry benchmarks for professional handicappers.

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Now, Hochman has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Hochman’s surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: Cox brings two of the top favorites to this year’s race in Commandment and Further Ado, and both were listed at 6-1 odds, trailing only the favorite, Renegade, who is 4-1. Despite being viewed as a top contender, Commandment is not a horse that Hochman is high on this weekend. 

The last time we saw Commandment was March 28 when he won the Florida Derby, edging out another top Derby Contender — The Puma, who ended up scratching from the Kentucky Derby Saturday morning. Despite Commandment emerging victorious in that race, Hochman has some questions, namely in terms of his overall speed.

“Commandment’s 1:49.99 race time is slow compared to recent winners,” Hochman says. “His peak came in the Fountain of Youth, posting a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, but he dropped to 96 in the Florida Derby.” See who to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:

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How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Moreover, Hochman’s top pick is a horse with “remarkable finishing speed.” He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is “peaking at the perfect moment.” Hochman is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Hochman’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has a 65.7% win rate and has cashed in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds

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Fernando Mendoza says Raiders OTAs may keep him from White House visit

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Fernando Mendoza responded to a question Saturday about whether he will visit President Donald Trump at the White House to celebrate the Indiana Hoosiers’ historic college football championship.

Mendoza said that he “believed” the scheduled date of the visit, May 11, was the first day of the Las Vegas Raiders’ organized team activities (OTAs). But he was incorrect, as the Raiders’ OTAs don’t start until May 18.

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Quarterback Fernando Mendoza speaking at a news conference in Henderson, Nevada.

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza, selected as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft by the Las Vegas Raiders, attends a news conference at the Raiders Headquarters in Henderson, Nev., on April 24, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

“If it is on the first day of OTAs, like I said, I’m on the bottom of the totem pole here, I got to prove myself, I can’t miss practice,” Mendoza told reporters at a Raiders press conference on Saturday. “As a rookie, I don’t think that’s a good look. I want to try to best serve my teammates, and I don’t think that would be accomplishing that goal.”

The Raiders don’t have anything in their offseason program scheduled for May 11.

INDIANA’S FERNANDO MENDOZA WINS 2025 HEISMAN TROPHY

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza looking on during warmups at Hard Rock Stadium

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza looks on during warmups before the College Football Playoff National Championship game against the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Jan. 19, 2026. (Sam Navarro/Imagn Images)

Mendoza led Indiana to the college football championship and the first 16-0 season in the modern history of the sport. The team announced it was visiting the White House to celebrate the accomplishment on Friday.

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Mendoza became one of the biggest names in the sport during his heroics for Indiana last season, en route to the Heisman Trophy. He was the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft by the Las Vegas Raiders.

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President Donald Trump, White House, briefing

President Donald Trump hosts NCAA collegiate national champions at the White House in this April 2026 photo. (Daniel Heuer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The other college football champions who went on to be the No. 1 overall picks, Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow, each visited Trump at the White House in the president’s first term. Lawrence visited in 2019 and Burrow went in 2020.

Now, all eyes turn to Mendoza, who etched his name in college football history and the hearts of many football fans, to see if he will make the trip once realizing that OTAs are not on the same day as the visit.

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Gunther’s favor from Paul Heyman revealed on SmackDown,  Brock Lesnar has officially retired?

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Paul Heyman was spotted by eagle-eyed WWE fans on SmackDown this week, in the background of a backstage segment between Fraxiom and R-Truth.

Heyman was seen talking with Adam Pearce, but this was the only time The Oracle made an appearance this week. It seems that this was a significant moment on the show, since this later led to Gunther’s return to the brand.

Gunther was on RAW when he was battling Seth Rollins ahead of WrestleMania, but it seems that Heyman had something to do with his move over to SmackDown and his shot at Cody Rhodes.

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There is a belief that WWE was showing fans that this was the favor that Gunther asked for from Heyman, which could also confirm that Brock Lesnar has retired.

Gunther vs Brock Lesnar was believed to be Paul Heyman’s favor

There was major speculation that Gunther would push for Brock Lesnar to make his return so that he could be added to his retirement list, but it seems that this isn’t the case.

Gunther could have instead asked for Paul Heyman to talk to Pearce and help him get a shot for the WWE Championship, since Roman Reigns is busy with Jacob Fatu on RAW. Cody Rhodes appears to be a better target for The Ring General, and now he has his eyes on the prize ahead of Backlash.

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Gunther protected Heyman from Seth Rollins when Bron Breakker and Bronson Reed were sidelined, which left him indebted to the Austrian star, and now it appears that he has decided to cash in.

There is no other reason why Pearce and Paul Heyman would need to speak, since The Vision is on RAW. WWE also made a point of showing the two men talking to make it clear it’s connected. This could be confirmed if the two men have a backstage segment next week, since Gunther should have his shot at the World Championship confirmed for Backlash momentarily.

It will be interesting to see if Gunther can dethrone Rhodes or if Backlash will see the return of Randy Orton, who could still have a bone to pick with Rhodes after WrestleMania 42.