2026 March Madness picks: Predictions against the spread, odds for second-round games Saturday

When the sun rises on Saturday, the 2026 NCAA Tournament field will be cut in half. The 32 teams that make it to the weekend all enter into the “championship game” of their respective two-game tournaments, with a spot in the Sweet 16 serving as the prize. They don’t cut down nets for this round, but teams certainly understand the importance of that weekend win and extending their stay in the Big Dance. 

For some, the March Madness experience might be tampered by a busted bracket or a bad pick in your Bracket Games. Luckily, the tournament always provides many ways to predict how things play out, and here in the Expert Picks corner, we have found a couple of unique angles to spotlight from Saturday’s slate. 

Saturday’s schedule includes No. 11 seed VCU and No. 12 seed High Point, both upset winners in thrilling fashion from Thursday’s First Round. The ultimate test for any of these potential Cinderellas is always following up with a win on the weekend, and while the Rams and Panthers are incredible stories, the teams they face (No. 3 seed Illinois, No. 4 seed Arkansas) are an even tougher test. The Fighting Illini and Razorbacks are part of a group of top four seeds that went 8-0 on Thursday, as it was the mid-bracket chaos that really led the way. 

No. 1 overall seed Duke will be back in action after surviving an upset scare from No. 16 seed Siena. The Blue Devils will square off against No. 9 seed TCU, while fellow No. 1 Michigan will get the day started against a high-octane Saint Louis squad that dominated Georgia in the 8-9 game in the Midwest Region on Thursday night. There’s also a fascinating pair of games in Oklahoma City, first with a Texas tangle between No. 2 Houston and No. 10 Texas A&M and then No. 4 Nebraska will be looking for its second-ever NCAA Tournament win in a fascinating clash with No. 4 Vanderbilt. 

It’s an eight-game slate that will take fans from Noon ET to Midnight. Among those, we have spotlighted a few of our favorite picks below. If you prefer a more traditional straight-up or against-the-spread selection, we have included those as well, via the CBS Sports expert panel. 

(3) Michigan State vs. (6) Louisville 

2:45 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live 

Michigan State is not typically an up-tempo team, but it generates offense by capitalizing on transition opportunities. With Louisville pushing the pace and getting shots up quickly, this matchup should feature more possessions — and, in turn, more chances for the Spartans to find easy points.

Michigan State’s defense also slipped late in the regular season, contributing to the over hitting in nine of its last 11 games. The Spartans have played faster in recent weeks than their season-long profile suggests, and in this matchup, pushing the pace before Louisville’s defense gets set could make them especially advantageous. Pick: Over 151 

(1) Duke vs. (9) TCU 

5:15 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live 

TCU should be able to bring the fight to Duke early, using the same pressure and physicality that produced wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech in the regular season and helped eliminate Ohio State in the first round.

The concern for the Horned Frogs is foul trouble. That physical style can lead to quick whistles, and Duke star Cam Boozer excels at playing through contact and generating points at the free-throw line. It’s also unlikely the Blue Devils will shoot as poorly from 3-point range as they did against Siena (5 for 26), so positive regression should help the No. 1 overall seed advance from Greenville — perhaps with a few new nightmares, but with its title hopes intact. Pick: Duke -11.5  

(3) Gonzaga vs. (11) Texas 

7:10 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live 

Gonzaga’s late-night performance Thursday was less than inspiring. The Zags took 10 minutes to reach double digits, missing 11 of their first 15 shots. Though they ultimately won by nine, they failed to cover as 18-point favorites.

Texas, meanwhile, enters with momentum after a pair of wins that have the Longhorns exceeding expectations by reaching the second round. Sean Miller has a strong track record in the Round of 32, and Matas Vokietaitis‘ first-round showing suggests Texas’ versatile big man is in form ahead of a matchup with WCC Player of the Year Graham Ike.

The Longhorns have a legitimate chance to win outright, making them a compelling play to cover the spread.Pick: Texas +6.5     

(3) Illinois vs. (11) VCU 

7:50 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live 

Illinois has met expectations when heavily favored this season. Coach Brad Underwood is 4-0 against the spread as a double-digit favorite in the NCAA Tournament.

While history doesn’t favor double-digit seeds following up a big upset, this pick isn’t about fading VCU after its dramatic comeback. It’s more of a nod to how Illinois handles these situations. The Rams will face a different caliber of backcourt pressure against Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell, and Illinois has enough shooters to punish teams that can’t slow or stop the ball.

Illinois wins with size and shooting that most opponents can’t match, and when the team presses, it can snowball quickly. Expect a similar dynamic in the nightcap in Greenville. Pick: Illinois -10.5

(4) Nebraska vs. (5) Vanderbilt 

8:45 p.m. on TNT | March Madness Live 

It hardly felt like a neutral site in Oklahoma City as “Go Big Red” chants echoed through a red-clad Paycom Center for Nebraska’s first-ever NCAA Tournament win. The victory was methodical, and I don’t expect much of an emotional hangover for the Cornhuskers, who were in rhythm offensively and drained 14 three-pointers.

The key will be defense, though, especially after Tyler Tanner expertly guided Vanderbilt through McNeese’s defensive pressure to create easy baskets near the rim. This matchup shapes up as a major schematic battle between Fred Hoiberg and Mark Byington, and I wouldn’t be surprised by big swings and lead changes throughout.

At the end of 40 minutes, I expect Nebraska to advance to the Sweet 16, making a couple of points as the underdog a solid value play. Pick: Nebraska +2.5