Sports
2026 NBA Draft Lottery: Each team’s odds of landing the No. 1 pick
The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Sunday (3:00 p.m. ET), and it could be one of the most consequential in league history. That’s because with the looming lottery reform that could be in place as soon as next year, there would be no draft floor.
For example, the Washington Wizards finished the 2025-26 season with the worst record (17-65). This weekend, the worst possible outcome for Washington is its pick landing at No. 5. Under the proposed 3-2-1 lottery system, the Wizards would be in the “relegation” zone and could fall as far as pick No. 12.
Teams will have a whole summer and another NBA season to worry about what’s ahead. As of now? Teams are worried about the ping pong balls that could make-or-break what some teams have been planning on the rebuild front. The top of the 2026 draft class is as talented as any in the last decade, with BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, Duke’s Cameron Boozer and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson expected to come off the board early.
The Wizards, Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets all have equal odds (14%) of landing the No. 1 pick. After that, the Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings have the fourth-best odds (11.5%) to pick first after tying for the fourth-worst record. The New Orleans Pelicans finished tied with the Dallas Mavericks for the seventh-worst record in the league. However, the Pelicans don’t own their first-round pick after trading it away on draft night last summer in a deal centered around Derik Queen.
The Atlanta Hawks will have two bites at the apple because they own the Pelicans’ selection and have swap rights with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Los Angeles Clippers owe their first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder no matter what, but could still pick at No. 5 or No. 6. The Pacers traded a top-four protected pick at the trade deadline to Los Angeles for Ivica Zubac.
The pick would go to Los Angeles this year if it’s outside the top four. And if it doesn’t? It becomes an unprotected first-rounder in 2031.
Here are the official odds ahead of the draft lottery this weekend.
What are the odds for the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?
The Wizards finished with the NBA’s worst record in 2025-26, thus earning a 14% chance to win the lottery. Indiana had the second-worst record and has a 14% chance as well.
The full odds board for each team to win the No. 1 pick and the chances each pick lands in the top four are below.
| PICK | TEAM | 2025-26 RECORD | WIN% | TOP 4 | #1 OVERALL |
| 1 | Washington | 17-65 | 0.207 | 52.1% | 14% |
| 2 | Indiana-x | 19-63 | 0.232 | 52.1% | 14% |
| 3 | Brooklyn | 20-62 | 0.244 | 52.1% | 14% |
| 4 | Utah | 22-60 | 0.268 | 45.2% | 11.5% |
| 5 | Sacramento | 22-60 | 0.268 | 45.2% | 11.5% |
| 6 | Memphis | 25-57 | 0.305 | 37.0% | 9% |
| 7 | Atlanta (via NOP) | 26-56 | 0.317 | 29.3% | 6.8% |
| 8 | Dallas | 26-56 | 0.317 | 29% | 6.7% |
| 9 | Chicago | 31-51 | 0.378 | 20.3% | 4.5% |
| 10 | Milwaukee-x | 32-50 | 0.39 | 13.9% | 3% |
| 11 | Golden State | 37-45 | 0.451 | 9.4% | 2% |
| 12 | Oklahoma City (via LAC) | 42-40 | 0.512 | 7.1% | 1.5% |
| 13 | Miami | 43-39 | 0.524 | 4.8% | 1% |
| 14 | Charlotte | 44-38 | 0.537 | 2.4% | 0.5% |
x – Pick may be conveyed to another team
- If Indiana’s pick lands outside of the top four selections, the Clippers will receive the pick. If Indiana falls out of the top four, its pick would be No. 5 or No. 6.
- The Bucks are the only team here unable to receive the No. 1 pick. The Hawks have swap rights with the Bucks, meaning that if the Bucks draw the first overall pick, it can be swapped. Milwaukee would then receive the Pelicans’ first-round pick, via the Hawks. The Spurs own the Hawks’ first-round pick, which is slotted at pick No. 20.
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