Adam New’s Win-Loss Prediction for the 2026 Vikings

It’s prediction time. Here, I will review each of the Minnesota Vikings’ 17 regular-season games, giving my thoughts and a prediction for the outcome. Eventually, we will have a win-loss record for the entire season.

Adam New’s Win-Loss Prediction for the 2026 Vikings

Last year, I predicted 11 wins for the Vikings and it proved to be a touch optimistic, with Minnesota ending up with just nine wins. I obviously didn’t foresee so much turmoil at the quarterback position where three different starters were needed. Since becoming the Vikings’ head coach Kevin O’Connell has seen his team reach the playoffs and then fail to do so in alternate years. He needs that to continue this season otherwise he will find himself under pressure.

The NFC North was the only division that saw every team finish with a winning record in 2025 – only two wins separated all four teams. I expect the division to be just as competitive this season. Here is how I see things playing out for the Vikings in 2026.

Week 1-6

Minnesota starts the season with back-to-back games within the division and follows that up with a home game against Miami, sandwiched between road trips to NFC South opposition. For the second season in a row, the Vikings have an early bye in Week 6.

Week 1: Win vs Packers 1-0

Week 2: Loss at Bears 1-1

Week 3: Loss at Buccaneers 1-2

Week 4: Win vs Dolphins 2-2

Week 5: Win at Saints 3-2

Week 6: Bye Week

I have Minnesota starting the season off with a win on home turf against Green Bay, then following that up with a loss on the road at Chicago. Splitting the two divisional games that start the season would be a respectable start.

Next comes what could be one of the season-defining games from outside of the division. The four games against NFC South opposition are ones the team that wins the NFC North probably needs to win, but those wins won’t come easy, especially on the road in Tampa Bay. I have the Vikings going down to a narrow defeat but I do have them winning in Week 5 against New Orleans. A home win against Miami between those two games would see the Vikings head into the bye week with a winning record.

Week 7-12

The next six games are the toughest part of the 2026 schedule for the Vikings, and I have them winning only two games. It includes three very difficult road games and hosting Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

Week 7: Win vs Colts 4-2

Week 8: Loss at Lions 4-3

Week 9: Loss vs Bills 4-4

Week 10: Loss at Packers 4-5

Week 11: Loss at 49ers 4-6

Week 12: Win vs Falcons 5-6

It starts well for Minnesota as I have them beating Indianapolis at US Bank Stadium. However, I then have them losing four, including three road games at Detroit, Green Bay, and against San Francisco in Mexico. With those three road games broken up by a home game against Buffalo that is an incredibly tough run of games. I have the Vikings coming out empty-handed, but if they could find a win somewhere it could be hugely significant for the season. Minnesota is back at home against Atlanta for the last of this block of six games and I have the Vikings down for a much-needed win.

Week 13-18

Finally, we come to the last six games of the season, the business end when the pressure will be on, and I have the Vikings finishing strong. Four of the last six games are at home including two huge divisional games that could well go a long way in determining the fate of the division.

Week 13: Win vs Panthers 6-6

Week 14: Loss at Patriots 6-7

Week 15: Win vs Lions 7-7

Week 16: Win vs Commanders 8-7

Week 17: Win at Jets 9-7

Week 18: Win vs Bears 10-7

Minnesota starts with a home win against Carolina before moving on to a loss on the road in New England – that is the last game I have the Vikings losing. Finishing the season with four wins in a row including a win at home against Washington and on the road against the New York Jets. 

My official win-loss prediction for the 2026 Vikings is 10-7

The two home games against Detroit and Chicago are massive. With those two wins and a 10-7 record, the Vikings should be playing playoff football as a wild card. If those games go the other way then it is a very different story. For all the problems that Minnesota had last season and needs to fix (most notably at quarterback), 10 wins would only be an improvement of one game from 2025. It shouldn’t be an impossible task.

Proud UK Viking. Family Man. Enjoy writing about my team. Away from football an advocate for autism acceptance.