Aggressive yet calm, Alexandrova pulls off upset win over No. 1 Sabalenka

TORONTO — On a sticky, sweaty night, against the hottest player on the planet, Ekaterina Alexandrova kept her cool.

The tournament 16-seed upset world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 (3), 4-6, 6-4 in a wildly entertaining marathon matchup Saturday night in the Round of 16 at the National Bank Open presented by Rogers. 

The bout was comprised of equal parts awe-inspiring feats and frustration-inducing misplays, with would-be plot twists unfolding on just about every serve, and the crowd loving every minute of it. 

It was a match as unpredictable as it was entertaining. And as it turns out, that was all part of the plan for Alexandrova, who entered the court knowing the risks of trying to match Sabalenka’s power — and going for it, all the same. 

“I knew it’s going to be difficult match. I didn’t have any expectations beside that,” Alexandra said. “I just went on the court, and I was trying to play as aggressive as I could, even if that cost me a lot of unforced mistakes.”

The match was full of oddities and missteps — a rare lost tie-breaker for Sabalenka to end a dramatic first set; as many double faults (seven each) as aces (8-6, favouring Alexandrova); and each competitor breaking serve six times yet unable to convert it into meaningful momentum swings. (Perhaps the oddest sight of all was seeing a net-front Sabalenka line up a sky-high volley in the second set that should’ve been an easy rally-ending dagger but instead was pummelled — thwack! — straight into the net.)

While Sabalenka aired her frustrations throughout, Alexandrova held steady. 

“Overall, I was playing just, like, every single ball, no matter what the score was,” said Alexandrova, who is currently ranked 19th in the world. “I wasn’t trying to think, you know, that if it was my only chance or, like, what’s going to happen next. So, no matter what the score was, I was just trying to play the same thing.”

Unpredictable as the back-and-forth service game was, this match was always going to come down to who could harness it when it mattered most. When you have as much power as Sabalenka packs into her sensational swing, it can come at the cost of precision. We saw that Saturday, and Alexandrova took advantage. 

“I was trying to play more aggressive on the return because, I don’t know, for me it felt like her serve, it’s such a big weapon of hers,” Alexandrova said. “If I would be able to create some pressure on the return, especially on the first one, it will create some kind of tension on the court, and it will help me, you know, to get extra few seconds, maybe less, you know, just to play the ball faster, so that she doesn’t have that much time after the serve. 

“Sometimes it was really working, but of course it cost me a lot of errors the same way.”

With all the drama around the service game, it was fitting — if, yes, a little anti-climactic — for the match to end on a Sabalenka double fault. That the error was committed right after she’d sent an ace blistering cross-court to stay alive at match point… well, that’s the roller-coaster ride of tennis, isn’t it? 

For Alexandrova, the chance to take the court against the world No. 1 — and to topple the best in the game, in front of the crowd that clearly wanted to see the top seed move on — is not an opportunity the 31-year-old takes lightly. 

“She has an amazing serve, return. She can make amazing shots from both sides, the forehand and the backhand,” Alexandrova said of Sabalenka, 28. “She can play the drop shot and the volley. So, basically, she can do anything.”

She can. But on this night, Alexandrova simply did it all a little bit better. And she’s got a berth in the quarter-final to show for it. Next up, she’ll take on ninth-seeded Elina Svitolina, who made quick work of opponent Amanda Anisimova with a straight-sets 6-2, 6-4 victory to close out Saturday’s action.

Earlier, Iga Swiatek was the first to book her ticket to the quarter-finals in Toronto, doing so with a 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 victory over Marta Kostyuk that was much closer than the final score suggests. 

The comeback win was an important test for Swiatek, who cruised through the first few days of the Toronto tournament. After losing just three games in back-to-back straight-sets victories through the first two rounds before Saturday’s Round of 16, she found herself down early against Kostyuk.

One set into the match, it looked as though perhaps Swiatek might be bested by the 10-seed. A familiar foe, Kostyuk ousted Swiatek in the Round of 16 at Roland Garros this spring. (Prior to that, Swiatek had built up a 3-0 career match lead over Kostyuk, having never lost a set to the Ukrainian competitor.)

So, in front of a crowd that took turns raining down chants on the familiar foes — for every cry of MAR-TA there was an enthusiastic I-GA in response, and vice versa — Swiatek shook off a sluggish first set and set the tone for the two that followed. 

That meant upping her service game, meeting Kostyuk’s strong return pressure with her own and taking a few more risks.

“I knew I can play better. I knew I had some shots that I maybe should have played more brave in the first set,” Swiatek said, following the win, when asked about the shift between the first and second sets. “In the second I came out, you know, being more brave and using the opportunities, like playing a bit faster and more heavy, and pushing Marta a little bit more.”

It paid off. Swiatek took control from there, meeting the pressure (and the heat) with a calm, cool approach with every rally — and there were many. It took her six match points to finally close out the win. 

“Even though the scoreline was maybe not so close, but every point, like, we fought for every ball,” said Swiatek. “There weren’t many free points.”

It’s safe to say there won’t be many easy wins in her next match, either. Following Swiatek’s Centre Court victory, 15th-seeded Diana Shnaider toppled two-time tournament champ Jessica Pegula in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3, to advance to the quarter-finals, where she’ll meet Swiatek.

The second contest of the day resembled a chess match at times, both women getting creative with net-front play to keep the other on her toes — evidence of opponents clearly familiar with one another. Just last month, Pegula bested Shnaider in the semifinals in D.C. Before that, she also defeated her in the quarterfinals in Charleston in April. Shnaider’s win marks her first career victory over Pegula — and in a tournament the American knows well. Two years ago, on this very court, Pegula was crowned champion of the 2024 National Bank Open, successfully defending her title won in Montreal the year prior. 

Shnaider reached the semifinal in 2024, only to be bested by Pegula. This time, she got the best of her opponent as she looks to book a return trip to the final four — and, she hopes, beyond. 

“Yeah, so far, so good,” Shnaider said. “I love Toronto. I was looking forward to come back here. It’s only my second time, but, yeah, definitely I like the courts here. I like the crowd, super supportive. So, yeah, some nice memories and I hope just to keep going.”